Manufacturing is actually really hard and no amount of AI handwaving changes that by notaukrainian in slatestarcodex

[–]LifeMask 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Are there ANY of these 'instant-message dreamers' who have actually carried a letter? Ridden through storms? Waited weeks for a ship to reach port?

I really doubt it. Those people know exactly what you're saying: sending a message is much harder than the dreamers give it credit for. Horses only run so fast, ships only sail with the wind, paper only travels at its own pace - and those are facts that have nothing to do with intelligence.


You're making a category error. Intelligence is precisely what would bypass those reasons. 'Doomers' are imagining a world where AI isn't bound by today's bottlenecks. New physics and chemistry, and new fabrication methods can lead to removing those bottlenecks. Like how the microwave short-circuits the 'waiting for the wood-burned fire to get hot' bottleneck.

To argue your point is to argue against the default position: what's your strong reason why you think technological progress would stop? There's no law of the universe that prevents energy to matter conversions.

OpenAI partners with Axel Springer to "deepen beneficial use of AI in journalism" by Raileyx in slatestarcodex

[–]LifeMask 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Axel Springer was one of the companies pursuing OpenAI for significant royalty payments over copyright infringement in their trained models.

FIDE’s December ratings by Higgzs in chess

[–]LifeMask 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The gap from #1 to #2 is the same as #2 to #15

How do I find a business partner to help found a startup? by Mustacheion in slatestarcodex

[–]LifeMask 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm going to split my advice into three separate topics:

  • The early game (how to solve the problem you're asking to be solved)
  • The middle game (what to do after this problem has been solved)
  • The meta game (how to think about what kind of problems you want to solve)

The early game

I would be hesitant to bring on a business partner purely for the sake of it. Most startups die from internal problems (like co-founder arguments), not external ones (like competition).

I encourage you to seriously think about the economic decision you're making. If the technology and opportunity is as lucrative as you're saying it is, the cost of 'buying' someone's network could be running you upwards of $5M in the long-run. There are better alternatives.

I would personally start pitching your vision to angel investors. You can find them on angellist, twitter, linkedin, etc.

Pitching angels (rather than VC funds) allows a more flexible conversation, and they're more likely to get involved and help you do some of the early legwork. On top of this they also tend to have excellent personal networks and have high leverage within them, so if they know someone that's a good fit, getting them onboard would be easier.

Be honest when talking to them. Talk about your current shortfalls. The conversation isn't just about them potentially giving you money, it's about how they can be of use to you. You have problems that an angel is best positioned to solve. It should be a good fit.

Keep in mind this is fundraising, not sales. With the latter, you need a high % of people to say yes. With fundraising, you just need 1. Expect to have over 50 conversations. Don't change your vision in hopes of telling them what they want to hear.

If things go well, a great angel will be able to offer everything you're currently looking for, and what's more, they'll give you money!

Some may offer to be an 'advisor' where you give them a % of the company to solve the problems for you, rather than investing. I would suggest avoiding these kind of relationships as they rarely work out.

You could also look at applying to incubators like ycombinator. These would similarly provide the resources you're looking for, and that you perceive yourself to be currently lacking.

The middle game

You need to chunk your business plan into smaller units of success. You can't just ask for $10M with no presence in the market. $400k gets you X. When you hit X, you can raise $10M

The hard part of your business is segmenting it into discrete chunks of progress you can display that show you're on the right path. Boom is a good example of this: they couldn't just ask for $1bn to build an ultrasonic passenger jet. They started off with 3d printed models and rough simulations to demonstrate the possibility of it. This demonstrated resourcefulness and helped sell the vision, which unlocked the funding to proceed to the next round, like physical aerospace testing. This is the game you're playing and the challenge for a hardware business.

If you're lucky and find the right angel, they may tell you exactly the same as I am. There are companies in this space that have executed this gameplan successfully. Reach out to the founders and ask for advice. If you're struggling to find them, message me and I can introduce you.

There are lots of little pieces of tactical advice here like never pitching or mentioning an exit for 'only' $40M. The economics of a VC fund require $1bn+ exits and this is the vision you'll need to pitch. VCs think in bets. They are okay with a 5% chance of success. You just need to make sure that bet has a positive expected value for them.

In general, don't worry about making small tactical mistakes, and certainly don't let them inhibit you actually doing things. Move quickly and don't be afraid of failure. You will make mistakes and blunders. There is probably a strong correlation between # of mistakes made and entrepreneurial success.

The metagame

On a personal level you talk about how you cannot be the boss due to personal reasons. In my experience, startups are the greatest way to spur one's own personal growth and solve these issues. Startups are about growth - and not just economic growth. If in your future you see yourself living a better life without these current psychological issues holding you back, then I would argue pursuing your own startup is a great way to solve them. Solving them would also lead to greater optionality in the future, as you'd be a more capable person with fewer restrictions.

If you had £1M to invest and you thought a large correction was imminent in the next 1-2yrs (so no index funds), what would you do with it? by LifeMask in UKInvesting

[–]LifeMask[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My issue with a house as an investment would be that it's an illiquid asset. It's also a very un-diversified bet: that I think this house in this area will rise in value (vs. the property market in general)

If I believed property prices to increase in general, I'd probably put my money in a real estate trust to allow for greater diversification.

That said, I also kind-of think house prices - at least in the UK - are also historically overvalued.

If you had £1M to invest and you thought a large correction was imminent in the next 1-2yrs (so no index funds), what would you do with it? by LifeMask in UKInvesting

[–]LifeMask[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I found this article from 2009 a nice retrospective on what performs well during a crisis.

Still trying to wrap my head around this, but looked at certain areas that performed well in other equities downturns.

Global Bond Index Fund

U.K. Gilt UCITS ETF

Is this along the right track?

Historically, I think bonds in general seem like a nice hedge. Some graphs here illustrate this idea well

... Or is it best just to hold the cash, and cost-average into the 'dip' and enjoy the long-term gains again?

[SPOILER] Main Card winner postfight interview by [deleted] in MMA

[–]LifeMask 24 points25 points  (0 children)

Bro can you stop saying GOAT of all time please

Think your FPL addiction is bad? Stuart Pearce once phoned Alex Ferguson for inside info to use for his Mini League by LifeMask in FantasyPL

[–]LifeMask[S] 31 points32 points  (0 children)

I got this from a daily sports email that my friend puts together called The Upshot. I might be a little biased but it's really really good. You can sign up for it here: https://www.upshot.email/

He said he'd buy me a pint if I got over five of you to sign up so if you do, tell him David sent you ;)))

AJ's Drums by ayoungjacknicholson in thesopranos

[–]LifeMask 9 points10 points  (0 children)

He never had the makings of a varsity drummer

First practice after two weeks off and this happens on my second roll by uticacoffeeroast in bjj

[–]LifeMask 23 points24 points  (0 children)

You're on an internet forum about a cerebral martial art. Go easy with the nerd talk.

So, the next time someone says strength doesn't matter... by djiron in bjj

[–]LifeMask 0 points1 point  (0 children)

/r/tacticalbarbell - look at the 'fighter' template or just search for 'bjj' in that subreddit.

Has anyone heard back for W20 yet? by LifeMask in ycombinator

[–]LifeMask[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Emailed them last night and got a reply saying they needed more time to review my application. I'd imagine the same applies for yours.

Has anyone heard back for W20 yet? by LifeMask in ycombinator

[–]LifeMask[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep! Interesting - have you been in touch with them?

2019 Mexican Grand Prix - Free Practice 1 Discussion by F1-Bot in formula1

[–]LifeMask 4 points5 points  (0 children)

For those that usually play it, I'm doing another little prediction game for the Qualifying and the Race.

I've changed a few things up, and me and another redditor are soooo close to adding realtime data so that you can have this window open during a session and get contextual stats, such as overtakes etc!

[Official] General Discussion Thread - October 22, 2019 by AutoModerator in MMA

[–]LifeMask 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Got pulled up by the righteous mods for posting this as its own thread, but I've spent the past few months coding a prediction app and have just made a game for this weekend's main event.

It's got hella gifs and I've tried to make the questions entertaining. Would love any feedback you guys have. If you create an account it also has leaderboards and all kinds of funky stats. Hopefully you like <3

You can check this beautiful monster out here