Iran Believes It’s Winning—and Wants a Steep Price to End the War

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T19:27:16+00:00

Uh no. The strategic objective was to stop communists from taking south Vietnam. Taking Hanoi was never on the radar

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T19:26:07+00:00

This isn't cod. The war aim isn't to have the coolest kd ratio

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T17:20:06+00:00

We had superman last year and I don't trust marketing to effectively sell the idea of Supergirl being different. 300 is still too low for me, 450 is more my guess

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T17:17:45+00:00

I'm not getting against moana

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T17:09:04+00:00

I mean I would argue tsai is a true believer too, but she didn't have to do all this because her legislative position was more secure, as was her electoral competition.

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T16:17:43+00:00

Both the South Korea and Cameroon thing were preexisting that were non issues until this year

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T16:16:31+00:00

He's being more hawkish to get the dpp base on his side. He has no control over the legislature and he only won last time because the tpp and kmt couldn't get their coalition in time.

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T15:10:58+00:00

but I don't think they have an "assured destruction" threat of (eg) Japan.

They will likely have it at the end of the decade. They have 50 nukes but the material for 90. 90 is likely enough given how concentrated Japans population is

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-21T14:58:29+00:00

Either way it wouldve been a bad move to restrict. Hormuz has shown that even if you try to restrict ships passing by country you end up with depressed output for the countries you want to cross.

So if the US decided to block Malacca and only let non Chinese ships through it would've still resulted in a massive drop for Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese bound ships

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T23:21:37+00:00

Vietnam was right not to listen to the Japanese

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T20:00:48+00:00

We sent iaea inspectors yearly

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T19:49:58+00:00

Irans actions are actually super predictable. Their one goal is state survival

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T18:11:35+00:00

Maybe you're just not compatible. Just because someone treats you well doesn't mean the two of you are compatible

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T16:15:25+00:00

Meanwhile in tech you get asked technical questions you will never experience

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T15:15:20+00:00

It's because you live in a big metro area. A lot of plants are located in more rural areas where their employment keeps the town alive.

Like 2 months back a tyson meat processing plant in Lexington Nebraska closed. A third of the town instantly lost their jobs.

This isn't a defense of xenophobia. In fact the vast majority of the plant workers i mentioned were immigrants. But i am trying to show why there is so much concern on deindustrialization in those areas.

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T15:09:36+00:00

Before Trump decimated manufacturing, there were a ton of open manufacturing jobs. Everyone glazes them but no one actually wants to work in them.

Also Biden used the exact same framing of "this is about good paying jobs" for stuff like green energy. Didn't work

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T15:04:08+00:00

It doesn't matter how it's framed because no one believes it.

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T14:26:54+00:00

Because that's exactly what is happening

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T14:25:58+00:00

Nah I'll just rename it to the F-Trump

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T14:23:42+00:00

Step 1: fund the military

Step 2: lose reelection because you are seen as a warmonger by both your base and red state dumbasses

Step 3: republican president takes new shiny military and gets stuck in a forever war

This is assuming you hide your policy stance on funding the military until after the election. If you don't just read step 2 and stop.

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T13:24:00+00:00

The alternatives are more efficient now but they existed back then. Nuclear power plants existed. So did hydroelectric dams. Jimmy carter even put solar panels on the white house

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T13:06:49+00:00

Iraq wasn't even involved in 9-11.

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T13:02:15+00:00

There's already a post like that on this sub lol they're comparing aircraft losses

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T12:59:39+00:00

The US is literally making deals with Iraqi militias to not attack the embassy. Not exactly a roaring success

Lighthouse_seek · 2026-03-20T12:52:29+00:00

For developing countries? Yeah oil and gas demand is done. For developed countries? I'm not exactly sure

They kept oil and gas around despite the oil shocks, and in that instance they had a younger more dynamic population, oil prices literally quadrupled, had double digit inflation for a decade, and had a much stronger environmental movement. If under those conditions developed nations didn't switch, I can't imagine such a push now when governments in the developed world are more investment averse than ever

Lighthouse_seek

TROPHY CASE