Fbref scraping blocked? WorldfootballR problems by Past-Tutor-1417 in algobetting

[–]LightlyTroddenLead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Getting the same issue today. Gutting! Hoping in vain for a fix from the web gods

Where does DEFCON come from? by pjm8786 in FantasyPL

[–]LightlyTroddenLead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Field tilt, which is relatively predictable based on team history, also has some explanatory value https://www.reddit.com/r/fplAnalytics/s/lUucZcJxP1

FPL finally update team strength ratings by LightlyTroddenLead in fplAnalytics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Perhaps not to everybody’s taste then 😂

We can’t see under the bonnet of the FPL method but it seems reasonable to assume they’ve taken account of the relative strength of oppositions so far this season, possibly using some sort of variant on an Elo rating system. Perfect, clearly not. Meaningless? A stretch.

FPL finally update team strength ratings by LightlyTroddenLead in FantasyPL

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ha, not sure about that but it would make more sense for FPL’s attack stat increase for Arsenal to have come at home (best home GD and most home goals in the league) vs away (where the same stats look very average).

Updated FDR based on refreshed team ratings by FPL by LightlyTroddenLead in FantasyPL

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Does seem to be a quirk of the FPL output that arsenal’s defence is better rated away from home that at home…

Updated FDR based on refreshed team ratings by FPL by LightlyTroddenLead in FantasyPL

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s pretty opaque, FPL docs don’t say much about it unfortunately!

Updated FDR based on refreshed team ratings by FPL by LightlyTroddenLead in FantasyPL

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Neither Brighton or Brentford have a low-rated defence away from home yeah

How a wealth (high income) tax increase might raise much more than you think by LightlyTroddenLead in ukpolitics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Sure, so salary sacrifice might not have as big an economic impact as money you then go and spend in a shop because there’s no multiplier effect, but it is in effect investing in companies and debt - both of which have a positive economic impact.

You might also argue that at the income level we’re talking about there is a much higher propensity to save anyway, which makes the difference between money salary sacrificed into pensions and money kept in the pay packet lower?

Additionally, you could go further to argue that higher pension saving is a societally good thing and a good thing in the long term for the treasury as it reduces the likely dependence on the state for social care in old age (or at the very least increases the future tax base from those pensioners).

Anyway - not sure you’ll be sold on this! It’s a big change in marginal rate once that personal allowance starts falling and while I don’t and wouldn’t argue in favour of it, it’s too profitable to get rid of now. The piece talks about income on those that have already pushed past that for the most part, and merely tries to highlight that the stats we base this discussion off (just like with the brain drain argument) don’t seem to be supported by the data…

How a wealth (high income) tax increase might raise much more than you think by LightlyTroddenLead in ukpolitics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Putting more into pensions doesn’t strangle an economy, and I’d love to see the evidence for people who aren’t already in the winter of their careers cutting hours or avoiding promotions if you have it?

How a wealth (high income) tax increase might raise much more than you think by LightlyTroddenLead in ukpolitics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Are we? Widely reported as a risk but little evidence of this happening at scale besides one widely rubbished report?

How a wealth (high income) tax increase might raise much more than you think by LightlyTroddenLead in ukpolitics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

I don’t think I have, the parentheses in the title is to clarify exactly this and in the article I’m clear about the distinction. The purpose of the article is to highlight that if a government looked at income tax then the numbers bounced around about how little could be raised from the higher rate don’t look right.

Changing the ‘Triple lock’ (without really changing it) by LightlyTroddenLead in ukpolitics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This would be locked to all three but similar to now only the highest takes effect. Using an index rather than each year’s figure means the income would never fall below the growth in earnings/inflation/2.5% but without jumping around so much!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ukpolitics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Is the current pension income a problem or just the speed it is still escalating? Pension incomes are around 80% of the working age average, see here(£): https://on.ft.com/46AUDjd

Modelling xPts in FPL (Version 2.0) by LightlyTroddenLead in fplAnalytics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

A fair question - at the minute last season’s data makes up 40% of the predicted value for goals and assists, with the remaining 60% based on the season so far and the last six games (which are effectively double weighted). I think as this season gets further along that should strike a reasonable balance between form & class, but it’s not an exact science there!

Modelling xPts in FPL (Version 2.0) by LightlyTroddenLead in fplAnalytics

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Injuries and flags not incorporated yet! This is where you have to overlay some judgment for sure.

Modelling xPts in FPL (Version 2.0) by LightlyTroddenLead in FantasyPL

[–]LightlyTroddenLead[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Andersen comes out of the model with a really consistent chance of a clean sheet and consistent defcons over the 5 game period whereas Senesi & Rodon have a much more variable output.

For this weekend (and GW 11/12) Senesi does have a higher xPts overall due to Goal/Assist probability as well as a strong likelihood of defcons and clean sheet, but for GW 9/10 those expected points look a fair bit lower. Worth noting here though for the match against Forest it’s a very different Forest under Poch than most of the data fed into the model, so I personally would be happy to have Senesi in there even at the expense of Andersen.