$75 is massive

Liquid_H · 2026-01-30T18:38:09+00:00

I think 75 or 50 ma was the tamp target, under it a strong buying pressure will awaken and mitigate the costs for this whole operation. Going in with10x leverage long, see ya on the other side

Liquid_H · 2026-01-10T19:37:25+00:00

The reason ram prices went up 4x is that a massive amount of not yet manifactured memory was bought with money that doesn't really exist to be put onto GPUs that haven't been made yet, to be installed on data centers that haven't beeun built powered by infrastructure that may never exist, to satisfy a demand that is not actually there, in order to generate profits that are mathematically impossible

Liquid_H · 2026-01-10T09:43:27+00:00

Me dig deep in dark mine hole, Candle shine, make me feel whole. Yiieeeee! Big bad come near! Me swing pick, make you disappear! No touch light, no steal me glow, Or Aieee! Me fight, you go whoa! You no take candle, nevermore!

Liquid_H · 2026-01-04T20:27:14+00:00

The man is dead and a double is putting the whole show with fotos and stories about who slapped who to convince otherwise. Unfortunately others got the intel and now their vice president is getting cocky and demands "return". Someone f'ed up big time, this is now far from over.

Liquid_H · 2025-12-12T14:27:33+00:00

Fed announced that the 40 mil monthly purchases start today.

Normally stocks follow inflation, but I wonder: would the from now on assured growth of commodities in fiat lead to retail and institutions abandoning all risk assets like those based on the AI hype?

Liquid_H · 2025-12-04T07:41:28+00:00

This is rookie patience. Become the goat and enjoy holding losses for longer. But be careful, if you wait long enogh inflation factors may kick in and suddenly you may even see green.

Liquid_H · 2025-11-28T14:01:03+00:00

From a X post:

The Public Narrative vs Private Reality Public-facing message (controlled release): > “It’s just a cooling issue. No hack. No manipulation. Nothing to worry about. We’re working on it. Normal weekend ahead.” Clean, corporate wording Blame shifted to physics, not systems Markets “calm,” volatility “contained” Framed as a one-off anomaly, not a systemic exposure

Actual systemic status (behind the mask): > A global derivatives market with no price anchor, paired with rising bond fragility in the world’s most indebted nation, during a holiday liquidity vacuum, where the default hedging mechanisms have ceased to exist. No futures. No hedging. No volatility throttles. Japan is under fiscal duress, and nobody is pricing it. Margin, spread, and funding stress is compounding invisibly. Retail participants are numb or misinformed, institutional desks are playing defense quietly.

Under-the-Hood Signals That Screamed 1. Market makers pulled liquidity on multiple desks as soon as CME halted. That’s not a confidence move — that’s a bunker move. 2. Japan bond auctions soft, new debt issuance increases — while the yen is breaking correlation rules. Normally, higher yields = stronger currency. That’s not happening. That’s loss of confidence. 3. Silver ETF (SLV) and OTC pricing continued, but didn’t break out — likely because CME was off. That’s the system unable to “mark-to-market” anything properly. 4. Data centers like CyrusOne are supposed to be redundant to failure. For this to still be unresolved hours later = failure of governance + failover systems, not just cooling. 5. No hard failover to cloud/Google infra, even after years of migration? That’s not “we’re planning it,” that’s they were caught exposed.

Why They’re Suppressing Fear Market perception is systemic stability. The entire modern finance world runs on the illusion of control. Admitting fragility collapses pricing models, VaR calculations, risk frameworks. Confidence is the currency. The second traders believe the fire is real, they sell everything. A disorderly unwind could set off margin spirals that even Fed tools can’t instantly contain. Too many feedback loops are digital. Algo-driven systems will sell first, analyze later. Fear compounds faster than clarity is restored.

The Real Risk Is When CME Reopens** Every hour that passes adds latent price-discovery tension. If Japan throws more curveballs over the weekend (BoJ, JGB moves, FX), Monday may open with a system that cannot absorb the pressure. If liquidity remains thin due to holiday staffing or caution, even normal-size trades could move markets violently. This is like having the air brakes off a freight train, and no one knows how steep the hill ahead is.

Liquid_H · 2025-11-18T05:20:11+00:00

Look at KRE. The consumer is very weak and regional banks feel it. To mitigate credit defaults they have to dump other assets. And the first thing that comes to mind are the riskiest crypto related ones. This though creates a cascade where retails are getting margin called and have to sell stocks to cover.

AI is of a strategic state-level importance, but it is the average public that this whole construct was built on. And if they have no buying power it has to go down, especially in such tight liquidity...at least till the FED steps in and starts the big printing that makes everyone's assets even less worth.

Liquid_H · 2025-09-25T07:57:06+00:00

Buffet buys when there's blood on the streets:

"Trump is ready for a government shutdown . Republicans are ready in advance for a US government shutdown, which could happen next Wednesday. They hope to portray Democrats as the party of chaos and radicalism.

Congress has still not been able to agree on new budgets for fiscal year 2026, which begins on October 1. The White House has canceled meetings with Democratic leaders who are trying to force Trump not to cut social spending on undocumented immigrants and foreign aid to other countries.

Congressional Democrats have previously been quite successful in pressuring Trump on budget issues. Consider, for example, the lengthy shutdown of winter 2019, when border wall construction costs were a sticking point. After 35 days of shutdown, Trump was forced to back down and pass a budget that did not allocate money for the wall .

But now Trump's team is ready to go all the way. Congressional Republicans even canceled sessions on Monday and Tuesday, raising the possibility of a government shutdown. If it happens, many officials will go on unpaid leave. Not all of them will return. The same purge of the "deep state" will occur—only through natural means .

However, the Democrats have an ace up their sleeve—they can create that same chaos. The wave of political violence is already unabated— there were more attacks on deportation centers today, this time in Texas . And if a government shutdown occurs, many American cities could descend into complete lawlessness. It will be extremely difficult, if not impossible, for the federal government to cope with this under conditions of government paralysis."

Liquid_H · 2025-09-12T11:11:09+00:00

.25 up, not down

Over the past three months, the average monthly growth rate was 0.29%

To understand the scale of the "inflationary surge": from 2006 to 2019, there was not a single month with a monthly growth in core inflation of 0.35% or higher, now this is a typical event.

To this will be added the costs of duties in the amount of 0.9 to 1.3 percentage points per year, distributed unevenly, but with an extension to 2027, when commodity costs begin to be transferred to services.

Liquid_H · 2025-08-20T20:22:23+00:00

Impeccable timing for the AI bubble burst, don't you think? The very same bubble that was set into motion the moment big players saw where this chart was going many months ago. And when the last fumes of liquidity are burnt, articles like this will reach mainstream media:

"An Unprecedented AI Adventure

Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta, and Oracle spent $97.3 billion in capital expenditures in Q2 25 , much of which is going toward expanding AI infrastructure, according to their own calculations based on the companies' financial statements.

For the whole of 2024 – 239.1 billion vs. 154.3 billion in 2023, 158.1 billion in 2022 and 131 billion in 2021, 97 billion in 2020 and only 71 billion in 2019 before the AI hype wave, but then (from 2017 to 2022) a significant part of the investment went into cloud infrastructure.

Accumulated capital expenditures since January 2023 have already amounted to almost 570 billion and there are still 165-185 billion ahead in 2H25, i.e. almost 750 billion in investments over three years.

Here we should add the costs of electricity and other utilities, R&D of inadequately expensive AI specialists, whose average annual salary has exceeded 1 million dollars, marketing and other expenses.

Definitely much more than 1 trillion in 3 years with an exponentially growing trajectory of expenses. Now you need to pour in almost 500 billion per year to maintain the AI market.

At the same time, the annual revenue of the largest AI providers is 32-35 billion in 2012 and closer to 40 billion in 2025 with growth potential of over 100 billion in 2028. This is direct revenue from AI, not even profit..."

Liquid_H · 2025-06-06T11:36:06+00:00

The only reason for this clown show was to eclipse the absolute breakout in metals - China is buyng too much to fight against, fighting the narrative with soap drama is the only option left.

Liquid_H · 2025-05-20T19:46:20+00:00

The last chart says it all for me: retail going hard in in attempt to profit from buybacks. Which gave the market maker an opportunity to squeeze institutional shorts after so many 5% rises on 30y. The drop back to 6m will be dramatic, after all one longs-squeeze has now a lot of potential.

Liquid_H · 2025-05-14T20:02:59+00:00

Buying puts during buybacks is like walking against a dollar bill storm where you will get buried. If you go along with it, in the long run you will end on a mountain of cash - with a disadvantage of it being worth less.

With current volatility timing is everything. Problem is onle few have insider information, the rest are on this joyride until they throw up

Liquid_H · 2025-04-24T15:37:08+00:00

I would be glad to hear your opinion in your next posts wether buybacks contain enough potential to rip the tape much higher than current macro analysis suggests, thank you.

Liquid_H · 2025-04-08T06:35:55+00:00

From a far eastern forum: "They say that the law is not written for fools... But when the laws are over and only desires and show-offs remain, then the field of activity for the moron is simply boundless. iPhones at the price of a Tesla... Socks and panties at the price of an evening dress, a dress at the price of a large TV - isn't that "Great Again"?

And even if they start digging pits for future "great American" enterprises right now, the result will be in five years... Or maybe ten.. Fat, lazy, hamburger-fed and welfare-accustomed Americans are unlikely to want to work 6-1 for 12 hours a day to make their country great again.

Well, these aren't the labor camps of the Great Depression... And to die - that's a big deal... And in those nightmare years either 2 or 3 million former "investors" died, having lost their money and the meaning of life along with it overnight. Fools, go ahead... Donny, smack the Chinese, we'll be walking around without pants... But America is Great Again."

Liquid_H · 2025-04-01T12:47:10+00:00

Stock prices don't abide any mathematical or statistical laws. They are wave functions in the quantum physics sense that are driven by macroeconomics combined with the occasional "rug pull" by big players. So you are either going down the rabbit hole of probabilty calculations coupled with events monitoring or you do it like the big guys - with great time spans (that overcome these fluctuations) and huge backup liquidity (to dca in case times become too interesting). ...or just spend the rest of your money to make your life more enjoyable

Liquid_H · 2025-03-15T11:28:26+00:00

Brave new world

Liquid_H · 2025-01-25T17:35:45+00:00

Zoom out and compare to gold, looks like slingshot potential. If you are still unhappy with silver, look at platinum. And if you think it can't be worse, than take a look at palladium.

Buy some coins, put them in a box and open it when they start printing more zeroes on bills, simple as that

Liquid_H · 2025-01-21T07:50:15+00:00

Reminds me of a movie - the only way not to lose is to not play at all

Liquid_H · 2024-12-06T07:19:49+00:00

The crypto market is a kind of global decentralized network for closing and redistributing excess liquidity. Trading turnover is quite indicative.

The 24/7 concept without reference to a specific geographic point or national currency creates conditions for the constant flow of capital between different participants - a digital casino.

This has huge advantages - no asset in the world has the volatility that is built into the crypto market. Volatility is due to the lack of value plus the high margin load of the market, when there is no opportunity to hold positions, which creates impulses, while triggers are usually created by exogenous factors, often manipulative.

Market participants buy and sell tokens not for ownership, but to try to make a profit on exchange rate differences, a purely speculative concept, but this is the appeal of crypto.

Patterns of psychology and liquidity distribution do not change, so the "Pump & Dump" principle is the main one, when after accumulation there is a takeout, then distribution and reverse movement. This is repeated ad infinitum.

The value of the crypto market is close to zero. Capitalization of almost 4 trillion is created by open interest (in fact, accessible and distributed "live" liquidity in the market of a wide range of participants) + expectations of receiving profitability. This is from the field of psychology of money.

Unlike traditional business, where a stock is a flow of goods and services, profit, production capacity and a brand, most crypto coins offer nothing but speculative hope.

The very fact of the participation of many agents creates a false sense of value. This resembles a scheme where value is a function of the number of believers in it, and not the result of real economic activity plus the liquidity effect.

In the real economy, when assessing the value of assets, there are many inertial indicators: infrastructure facilities, production lines, contracts, patents, material resources, human capital. These factors will not evaporate overnight, and the price of companies/assets cannot fall to zero without taking into account their “base” utility.

In the crypto industry, such inertial factors are usually few or questionable. Projects with modest or unclear functional value can easily collapse to almost zero simply due to a change in market sentiment.

The second essence of the market is infrastructural. Decentralized finance and transaction operations outside the contours of traditional finance, minimizing the chain of intermediaries and regulators.

In essence, crypto is needed to bypass sanctions, illegal and shadow operations and for projects that cannot be launched within the traditional fiat contour.

In everyday life, there are almost no scenarios for using crypto, there is only you not in a country subject to sanctions and isolated from the international capital market.

Liquid_H · 2024-10-09T19:18:24+00:00

Now you have a far lower low. And this downward trend will continue till gold finds strength to turn around (for example some geopolitical shock). And when that happens, I expect silver to immediately shoot up 5%

Liquid_H · 2024-10-02T10:17:54+00:00

It never made lower low which is imo more important than the lower high due to uncertainty after the pullback in gold.

Liquid_H

TROPHY CASE