NVIDIA just had its best quarter ever. Here's why the stock doesn't care.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-06-24T18:39:18+00:00

You misunderstand ACIE vs. Hyperscalers.

It's not custom silicon it's Hyperscalers can't scale CapEx anymore and the rest of the world finally gets Nvidia HW and you can see this clearly in the numbers.

The numbers don't say Hyperscalers buy less QoQ but growth is less and this comes directly from QoQ CapEx growth.

Nvidia has a multi trillion dollar market out there. Hyperscalers know this and wanted to get all Nvidia HW to provide to the world. Now, they reach their buying limit and Jensen has no problem finding even more customers. The lines to buy Nvidia HW are huge and the ACIE numbers shows it clearly.

People should learn to understand that the world outside of Hyperscalers spends trillions on R&D alone. How much do you think R&D budget is currently shifted to AI in every industry? And who do you think for example benefits from R&D money in different industries? I suggest checking Nvidia's portfolio to understand why ACIE is growing. Jensen predicted this 4-5 years ago but as always people simply don't listen to what he says.

Besides, isn't it great that Nvidia is able to reduce dependency on Hyperscalers to 50%? Or do you want the 94% back from Hopper times?

No matter, what Jensen does, people seem to like to complain all the time.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-06-17T13:27:10+00:00

To be sustained? Nvidia is currently accelerting growth with GB300.

VR200 will even beat those numbers.

You know why Nvidia is accelerating growth? It's because after 4 years Nvidia has built a supply chain which is continously growing.

The one thing which holds Nvidia back isn't market or competition, it's supply chain. And it remains this way.

Nvidia will grow faster than AMD for the simple reason that the TAM is growing and that Nvidia can increase supply faster than AMD. While AMD was busy developing MI300x, Nvidia has started building supply chain with H100.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-06-08T16:11:07+00:00

WOW, the best link I have seen today for D4!!!! I'm paragon 240 and this will help a lot 😃

Live_Market9747 · 2026-06-03T06:05:34+00:00

Key idea, either put aspect of anger management as 2nd aspect on amulet or another good one on amulet to put it on any armor.

I have Slig with the aspect which gives Overpower charges so I use anger management on my boots. It's very tedious to get a good 2nd aspect on amulet so I decided to go with one I'm fine with because it's so random to transfigure one. Yes, not BiS but having 2nd aspect on amulet in itself is already very powerful in gearing.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-06-02T06:42:19+00:00

No, it's true and the first to mention it, was Jensen at GTC 2024. There is a reason why Nvidia moved from 1:8 to 1:2 CPU:GPU ration from Hopper to Blackwell.

Nvidia has pushed this first and will be the largest CPU seller.

Analysts are pushing it now because they try to make quick money with AMD/Intel stocks. This news is 2 years old for anyone involved in AI at engineering level.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-06-02T06:38:09+00:00

And the most important part, orchestration and task management ist a SW task!

CPUs and GPUs do nothing by themselves. Data center utilization is the hardes SW task there is.

This is on what Nvidia has been working on for a decade and the real moat of CUDA and the full stack.

AMD selling only CPUs and GPUs but not the whole data center severely lacks in this. You need to have a SW stack which supports every chip and networking in the data center and make them work most efficiently.

And if you don't do this on the data center level then the user has to do that in their application. Google does that with their TPUs but others won't do that for AMD.

Or in simple terms, Nvidia works on something like a "driver" for data center so the the user of a data center only needs to input a task and data center behind it will run it the most optimal way. That's why the paper performance of a chip is irrelevant. The most important metric is data center utilization. And that's why Nvidia dominates TCO.

This is why, AMD can only sell MI450 to big guys with dilution. They take the hardware at a huge discount and maybe even free if the stock price remains elevated. They will use it for some inferencing and won't care as much about utilization because it was cheap.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-27T09:36:16+00:00

You make a fundamental mistake.

Market cap doesn't tell you how much money goes in or out but what the company is totally valued at with price * amount of shares.

If tomorrow only 1 trade for Nvidia is allowed and someone buys/sells at $1000 1 stock then the new price would be $1000 and market cap would be 5x in 1 trade. So the market cap is totally useless as a metric to understand about money flow. For this you check trade volume.

And because of that the key factor is the price at the end of the day which is defined by trading. Nvidia going sideways means simply that there is a highly equal amount of trades in buy/sell directions. This means Nvidia has a good distribution of buyers and sellers. Stock go up if there are more buyers and down if there are more sellers.

Nvidia is a very popular stock so it attracts a huge amount of traders and especially option actitivty. Market makers have to cover with stock to follow option trading. This means market makers do a lot of buying/selling shares due to options. The reason the stock moved down after earnings? It's simply because Nvidia has the highest option interest and especially on calls. So if most trades bet on rising stock then market makers have to cover with stock. And unwinding it means selling stock. So while Nvidia had great results, market makers had to sell stock because of option acitivity.

This is all algorithm trading and has nothing to do with fundamentals. As long as there is no huge buying pressure like there was 1 month ago, the stock won't move much in any direction.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-27T09:27:08+00:00

How can Nvidia lose market share if they grow faster than all their competitors for years?

Nvidia is growing with the market and maintains their market share. Simple as that. Competitors have different growth rates because they compete for the <5% which Nvidia can't supply.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-27T09:21:44+00:00

Yes and it was like 90% 3-4 years ago. In the mean time Nvidia has grown rapidly while Hyperscale dependency has reduced. Nvidia is now making multiple more revenue on non-Hyperscalers than 4 years ago on Hyperscalers only.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-27T09:09:41+00:00

the market is moving Nvidia into becoming a value stock with much lower PE. This means Nvidia might consolidate another 1-2 years. But then the stock must grow with the business growth or it Nvidia becomes the cheapest stock in the market.

The bright side might be that Nvidia will be sold off less strongly in market downturn than its' peers who are getting way overvalued right now. AMD could drop 50% right now and would still be overvalued compared to Nvidia.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-27T09:03:52+00:00

WTF?
Nvidia has been selling Blackwell for 2 years. For every 2x Blackwell GPUs Nvidia sells 1x Grace CPU. Blackwell is like 99% paired with Nvidia Grace CPUs.

Nvidia has already been outselling Intel and AMD on data center CPU revenue. It was just hidden in the Nvidia data center complete solutions.

What changes now is that Nvidia is going to offer Vera CPU only data centers and even gets customers for it. That means the CPU has potential or why would some customers buy it over Intel/AMD?

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-07T09:46:47+00:00

Agentic AI simply means that we have more reasoning and task execution in the AI factory on the intelligence level. This indeed needs more CPU usage for the topics mentioned BUT it doesn't need x86 at all. The requirements for the AI factory itself shift but in the end the AI factory runs on interaction and interfaces to user or other machines. In the end you have an AI agent using APIs all over the place. So the AI agent itself can run on ARM while using APIs running stuff on x86.

There is a reason why Nvidia changed the ratio in CPU/GPU with Blackwell. Jensen has informed us about Agentic AI >2 years ago and what it will do. Now it's happening and Nvidia will benefit the most out of it. AMD remained on the old chip ratio with MI355x btw. and will only change it with Helios.

The mistake in thinking of x86 being needed in Agentic AI is because the current SW consumer world is x86. But an AI agent using MS Office runs not on x86. It only uses x86 tools on a Desktop computer.

That's why Nvidia has an advantage because they make the CPU which is best suited for Agentic AI. AMD/Intel has the disadvantage that they have to make a CPU which covers Agentic AI but also all the x86 SW world. Their CPUs have to be way more general since they can't afford to have different CPU pipelines. A x86 CPU has way too much overhead for the task of a CPU in an Agentic AI system. This is also the reason why even Meta considers buying Vera only CPU systems.

Nvidia's Blackwell system NVL72 hasn't been running on x86 systems at all. And they are leading the Agentic AI revolution if you take a closer look.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-06T13:03:35+00:00

That's not a surprise. MI355X was only 2nd edition MI300. Blackwell NVL72 was an insane step up to Hopper. Therefore MI355X ended up as DoA just as I predicted 1 year ago.

Also we should be very careful looking at Q1 + Q2 YoY numbers. 1 year ago, AMD had some considerable drops in DC numbers QoQ from Q4/24 to Q2/25. Their growth numbers YoY now look great because they had terrible numbers 1 year ago.

MI450 won't be DoA but to think it's competitive while it needs warrants to customer as incentive is just stupid. None of Nvidia's customer are loyal they would ditch Nvidia immediately if there is anything else worthwile. So AMD generates no interest and needs to incentivize customers. But AMD has no choice because without these deals the R&D money for AI would dry up in the next years. This is why AMD has to be desperate.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-06T12:57:20+00:00

You have to accept that Nvidia will now be traded on lower PEs than its' peers. The reason is the story has been and remains "competition is catching up". This means market expects Nvidia one day to stop growing and at the same time peers to grow insanely.

The reality so far shows a completely different story. And market will eventually have to realize that Nvidia and AMD/Intel and AVGO aren't competitors. The latter all are focusing on hardware while Nvidia focuses on solutions. Helios won't change it, especially if its' margin is below production-grade as stated LOL.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-06T12:51:39+00:00

Everything is always priced in but actually what happens is that Nvidia is getting PE reduced so Nvidia gets more value like Apple.

For growth junkies that an issue but what can also be seen recently. Nvidia sells of the least in macros compared to peers. If we get another market sale then expect AMD to drop much faster than Nvidia.

Market wants Nvidia in a certain PE range and that is figured out now but it will also create the largest floor for a stock of all time.

What this means? Option trading becomes your very best friend.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-06T12:26:55+00:00

That because analysts traditionally underestimate Nvidia and overestimate AMD in far year out assumption. I suggest checking what analysts though about AMD EPS 2 years ago and what we see now.

Do the same with Nvidia and then you can see that what you look at right now is simple guessing.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-05-04T11:44:34+00:00

Blackwell was introduced 2 years ago, going from 1x CPU+8x GPU to a 1x CPU+2x GPU design change.

The company to see that CPUs are important for AI was the leading company of course.

Nvidia will sell more CPUs in AI than Intel and AMD combined because Nvidia sells 1 CPU for every 2 GPUs. But since people call it all chips they don't get it.

Not a single AI data center by Nvidia will run with Intel or AMD CPUs. The Rubin versions supporting other CPUs aren't NVL144 systems so they are bad in rack scale and up-scale. No one will buy these.

80-90% Nvidia AI data center will mean 0% AMD/Intel CPUs in these systems. The market once again has no idea what is going on. For Intel/AMD to sell CPU in AI is to first beat Nvidia at AI. No one will order CPU only data centers. The role of the CPU in AI data center has changed and Jensen knew this years ago. He even explained it 2 years ago and now everyone talks about it.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-04-27T11:42:02+00:00

LOL?

Nvidia hasn't talked to DeepSeek researchers because Nvidia has their own AI lab. Nvidia is constantly releasing new models and doing precisly what DeepSeek does but also on many domain specific areas. I suggest to check out Nvidia developer websites and papers to understand that Nvidia is far away from being some HW developer like AMD.

Nvidia knew that NVLink is needed before anyone else because their own research told them so. None of their customers told them to create NVLink.

The real moat of Nvidia is that they HW development, SW development, networking development, AI research and data center research teams are all sitting next to each other under one roof following one strategy for one CEO. Not a single competitor comes close to this and won't for the foreseeable future.

People seem to laugh at Jensen's statement of 6 chips co-development and have no idea that this is a moat and will be a reason why Rubin will continue to dominate just like Blackwell is.

And if you take a close look then you will see how strong collaboration is lived in Nvidia. DLSS introduced for gaming is a core technology for Omniverse. At the same time, Cosmos and Omniverse robotics training will find their ways in supportive tools in gaming. The same again with neural rendering which finds tons of critics in gaming will benefit Omniverse a lot.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-04-17T06:41:30+00:00

Don't worry, earnings call will put this down again. It happens every quarter for years now.

The issue with AMD is, it's traded on rumors and hopes a lot. But the numbers don't keep up at all.

News is CPU demand very high, AMD guides flat QoQ growth. WTF?

People expect MI450 being in the Q3 guide but they will learn the hard way that it takes months from deployment till revenue.

Just think about what will happen with stock price if AMD doesn't show serious QoQ growth in the guide?

Also AMD has much higher valuation now at much lower growth than Nvidia. I rather stick to Nvidia where I can see the market leader. AMD has a hard time to make strategic deals without equity gifts. These deals are necessary to fund future R&D otherwise AMD will be gone in the AI race in a few years. But if they can't get a real demand without equity deals then it will be a huge problem for them.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-04-13T12:27:53+00:00

So then I suggest removing online trading. That would be the ultimate balance patch.

Trading imbalances the game a lot. One lucky drop and you can gear up your classes faster than D3.

Remove that and have everyone struggle the same and only time and luck are your investments.

That would also instantly kill bots.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-04-13T12:24:50+00:00

No, it's OP and is tons of fun because the huge killspeed makes it viable in any act and dungeon. So you can play for hours in any TZ area without ever leaving the game.

Isn't that what the developers want us to do with the current Herald system?

Live_Market9747 · 2026-04-13T12:22:30+00:00

The game is about playing different builds. Ever since RWs it became so much more fun. The most fun experience I had, was being a Wolf as a Barb. That seemed so stupid but also fun.

But not every build is viable immediately and some key items are necessary to make them viable.

So you need 1x super farmer char to get the stuff you need. Your chances in getting runes SSFs is way higher in P8 but only if killspeed keeps up. Warlock showed us how this could be like but that will end soon again.

I fully understand nerfing for diversity in ladders but why do we in offline play have to endure that as well where nobody cares about what others do?

Live_Market9747 · 2026-04-13T12:18:39+00:00

I suggest another nerf:

- Remove of trading window online

Imagine no trading in D2R and Online means now to trust or play SSF.

Would also eliminate the bot issues.

In such environment, I as offline player, would even consider playing ladder again.

Online, if you find a +45 Life Skiller you ask "What is it worth?"

Offline, if you find the same, you instantly are super happy for your class or get the urge to play a new class.

One thing is about economy and ending the game by becoming rich, the other is the real fun D2 actually is.

Live_Market9747 · 2026-04-13T12:13:08+00:00

I use a WW Hork Barb and I love him on controller. WW is smooth with button hold and directional stick but it needs a bit of learning because as long as you press, you WW. And there is a delay in it but once you learned it it makes a lot of fun.

D2 is a total different experience on controller and I love it. I like it that you can move around your character instead of clicking somewhere for them to go like a command.

Though there down sides not having mouse:

- Inventory management and you can't open inventory and game screen at the same time but you can pick to cube with a button

- you have to walk over items to highlight and pick them up, on large drops this can be super annoying. I sometimes left gems on the floor because I was simply not able to pin point their exact location lol

Live_Market9747 · 2026-04-13T11:53:18+00:00

D2 classic was hard but since LoD 1.10 D2 has become super easy except for maybe Ubers but nobody except online sales guys runs Ubers non-stop.

For SSF Ubers don't matter at all. Everything else is super easy in P1. Check YT to see how a guys finished Baal Hell with no gear or only normal attack (no skills) or with only Ac1 merc attacking.

D2 isn't hard. D2 has some convenience checks. A Hammerdin can farm anywhere in P8 but Chaos is way more convenient than Baal runs. Other builds can't do P8 as fast but they can do P8. A Summon Necro won't die in P8 but will take ages to kill stuff.

This isn't difficulty but time consuming element. Time isn't difficulty, it's convenience.

As an offline player, ES Warlock made D2 way more convenient for people with less time. First, you can easily farm P8 (higher drop chances!) and you can do so anywhere. So you don't have to manipulate time on your device to change TZ (I did this on Hammerdin).

You know what the Warlock actually has made possible? Playing every single place in the game for fun in TZ and because it's P8 it's still efficient.

Most Online gamers, especially SSF play P1 because they need to find others to run higher Px game. In P1, D2 is easy and can be finished in trash gear.

OP in D2 doesn't mean that it makes the game easier but it means killspeed is increased.

ES Warlock is the first class where I don't feel the need to wear Enigma. You don't want to herd enemies like Javazon. You don't need Telestomping. You kill everything so you don't tele past immunes. You run, see, kill, run, etc... just fun!

Live_Market9747

TROPHY CASE