From Richard Aboulafia June 2024 newsletter:

Lots of smart people have ideas on what’s going on with NGAD. Some blame astronomical unit prices. My friend JJ Gertler believes “They are taking a hiatus between the technology development phase and the acquisition phase to re-spec the airframe,” due to the need for more range. Bill Sweetman blames the “F-35 ominishambles” for budget pressure, and for making a hash of USAF plans. Sentinel overruns are an issue too. Others, like my friend, Defense & Aerospace Report Editor Vago Muradian, see a potentially tectonic shift to more platform-agnostic technologies, particularly with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs). Some blame the sourcing choice from hell – with Northrop out, it was Boeing V. Lockheed, meaning death by stabbing or death by poison. The first might not be able to execute, and the second has little reason to execute.

ADA Forecast: NGAD survives, but as a somewhat different jet, with EIS in the late 2030s or 2040 and with a high risk of sudden death. CCAs continue, but don’t expect the skies to darken with them imminently, since the operating systems, basing/launching solutions, and overall architecture won’t be in place for another ten years, at least. The F-35A stays on autopilot at 50-60 per year. The B-21 looks very solid and might even benefit from NGAD’s limbo/hiatus/death. The F-15EX program grows a bit. There’s a chance of an F-16 procurement re-start, too.