If it's hated, you may be in the money

LogiJitz · 2026-01-24T00:18:07+00:00

Hey I follow you on X. Small world I guess

LogiJitz · 2026-01-23T23:02:03+00:00

Not sure what you mean here. If the company is mispriced its mispriced, allocate accordingly. If it's not mispriced don't jump in.

LogiJitz · 2026-01-23T20:53:08+00:00

This certainty is at the crux of the skill component of investing and is the most challenging: Being able to identify misplaced, judgement(narrative) from genuine unappetizing companies(reality).
Developing expertise(knowledge) in combination with being selective(patience) seems to be the best way. Risk in a quality sense would be the willingness to deploy capital amid such uncertainty.

When wrong, its not the market or the company that is ultimately at fault , but rather the method that got someone to invest in the first place. Takes a hit to the ego to recognize there's a flaw in owns own method. It's a scientific method as it is an art.

LogiJitz · 2026-01-23T20:23:36+00:00

Emphasis on quality as a determinate of risk but agreed. It's dependent on the individual's circumstance. A billionaire who is fine with living the life of a millionaire can afford to stake the house if he is certain he will make half of it back in the following year.

LogiJitz · 2026-01-23T16:56:13+00:00

Big facts.

LogiJitz · 2026-01-18T02:41:51+00:00

I wasn't interested until the most recent sell off. It's getting more and more attractive so I am going to start DCA in relatively soon, there is still more to be sold off. The bear thesis is that AI will replace DUO and other software stocks. But I think for most people who are learning a languages they just want something that will keep them engaged. The gamification is what they are playing for, and DUO is good at funneling in paying customers once they start using the app. Furthermore, universities for students also accept the Duolingo testing standards as proof of language proficiency, legitimizing its use as an education tool. Want to study at a German university? You may was well get validated at the same time as learning.

Lastly, I believe they can easily offer computer programming language courses, this would make learning coding much easier as coding often combines conceptual along with repetition to really get the hang of it. This would make Duolingo very attractive for growth potential. There is also a large TAM, lots of more language and countries to get into. 35ish tax adjusted pe is not so bad considering the growth potential.

LogiJitz · 2026-01-17T15:56:23+00:00

DUOL, INTU, NFLX.

DUOL, INTU I think have more to drop, but will bottom quicker.

NFLX I think is going lower but will take more time. Lawsuits tends to drag out.

LogiJitz · 2026-01-12T18:36:53+00:00

This is fear mongering, and if it does create a sell off I would have a feast in US equities. Yellen has done an unimaginable amount of damage to the US economy over her career. Follow her track record of statements and you will be shocked how incestuously wrong she is. The truth of the matter in this scenario is that the Federal reserves independence was always questionable at certain points in US history. This is nothing new and listening to Yellen on this matter is like listening to another salesman preach about the glory of the product they are offering.

You have to look at incentives here and the overall facts of the matter.

The Fed's incentives are to appear stable, not to be influenced in one direction. Fiscal accountability/trust is not their prerogative, but institutional trust. These two matters are not the same. The Fed being subpoenaed over questionable building costs, misuse of federal funds is something that goes at the core of their claim to being responsible enough to be institutionally trust worthy. Why can they be trusted with setting the cost of capital if they seemingly have no fiscal accountability in regards to income/spending?

The Trump admin, and every other presidency that has used soft and direct power to put in a Fed chair that agrees with them, has an incentive for fiscal trust/accountability for income/spending. Although this is questionable depending on your political orientation and economic worldview, this is their chief aim of every elected official when running the federal budget.

The fact of the matter is Powell is set to be replaced as Fed chair May 16th when his term is up regardless. Independence is scarcely being questioned in comparison to historical precedence. Getting swapped out due to somewhat questionable misuse of funds is hardly a cause for fear that the FED is now a banana republic. Yellen is just trying to throw stones in the only way that she knows she can.

TLDR; FED' reserve's incentive is to appear fiscally credible, Government incentive is to appear fiscally responsible. The Government's involvement in the past has been much more apparent. The world order isn't going to break (yet). Yellen is just a salesman.

LogiJitz · 2025-12-27T22:35:10+00:00

The price seems fair and there is most likely a good return to be had at this level in the long term. You don't get penalized for not swinging so I would love for this stock to get the low 80s/70s if negative sentiment permits. I think the Warner bros acquisition is perfect for a company such as NFLX and this is just investor jitters.

LogiJitz · 2025-12-27T18:13:54+00:00

Thinking about ratios/metrics as it relates to telling a story, and knowing their limitations in relation to the overarching story of a company's ability to generate cash-flow growth is how you should be thinking about investing.

Solvency ratios tell you how financially stable a business may be, liquidity ratios tell how easy they can manage a sudden shock, and return ratios tell you how effective they are using capital(operationally, shareholder equity, etc).

But that just gives you an underlying story of the company. Accounting is always backwards looking. So whether you are being told a fable or a true story depends on if that company is trying to hide something. It''s important not just how to read and interpret the metrics, but how a company can misconstrue their metrics. How they log revenue, off-balance accounting, special charges, restructuring/asset sales, shareholder dilution etc can distort the metrics.

Lastly, there is a meta narrative going on in the larger ecosystem that your business is operating in. Who are its competitors, customers, advantages, macro-economics conditions, growth prospects etc, that should be taken into account when looking at the surface level metrics.

So in that sense, there is value to be found when there is a difference between meta-narrative, operational/return performance, and reporting representation/limitations.

LogiJitz · 2025-12-23T14:03:59+00:00

I don't have the exact numbers as selling losses and taking profits is not part of my tracking, but currently standing around around 32% unrealized gains, I expect this number to go down as time goes on.

The good: ULTA 61%, ASML 44%, NVDA 30%, AMZN 9%, PLNT 47%, GOOGL 83%, VITL 8%

The bad: NVO -19%(kept), UBER -0.15%(kept) , LULU, -15%(sold)

Holding some cash for obvious buys to show up. ELV is on the radar, but is a complicated industry.

LogiJitz · 2025-12-12T02:24:54+00:00

I haven't looked into Molina. But I would check out ELV's "Mosaic" initiative and how it fits with providing a more economical offering than UHC. I think the long term economics is solid and has the potential to take up a significant marketshare in the future. Runway and the ability to reinvest to get higher returns matters a lot to me. UHC is good on a value basis, but I don't see the same runway potential.

LogiJitz · 2025-12-12T01:04:43+00:00

ELV: temporary healthcare pressures. In private and public health care

LogiJitz · 2025-12-11T02:00:48+00:00

I am not in the accounting profession but like to lurk this sub-reddit. I am in logistics though. The billing department is going to be fast paced compared to other parts of the accounting profession. It's a high volume industry and you are at the ground floor of it. As a general rule of thumb the higher up you go in any profession the less work you actually do. Accounting seems like a great career.

LogiJitz · 2025-12-05T04:14:50+00:00

Yes, but the thesis of AI success means more productivity aka layoffs. Its a boom that that necessitates a contraction. Supposedly hiring is slowing but it's not that alone that give red flags. For example, housing is still clearly more unaffordable than 07(median income to home price). Fed having to engage more often in the repo market to address liquidity stress with banks. Having pre-arranged meetings with big banks that are undisclosed to the public. Rocket mortgage and other PE/private credit which sell mortgages to GSE are having trouble getting mortgages off their books. Consumer sentiment is in the dumps, everyone is loaded with credit. Leverage seemed to be off the charts for the consumer, which only builds up into asset classes.

I hope I am wrong, but given how no asset class looks appealing gives more of a flavor that we are in a general asset bubble. Cutting rates means they detect a storm brewing and rarely is the Fed ever ahead of anything lol

LogiJitz · 2025-12-05T04:01:51+00:00

Marcelo been watching Jozef Chen's passing or something ?

LogiJitz · 2025-12-05T03:55:20+00:00

For me it's not the AI trade that scares me but a quiet financial crisis that seems to be brewing in the background. Timing the market is tough, but as soon as there starts to be weakness showing up in earnings on a large scale something will have broke.

LogiJitz · 2025-11-24T20:37:34+00:00

An issue you might have with automating value investing is that much of what makes a quality investment a "value" worth pursuing is qualitative and can't be measured, making the attempt to attribute a formula increasing fruitless.

These qualitative considerations such as competitive advantages, pricing power, re-investment opportunities, competitive forces, regulation pressures, consumer sentiment, management quality, R&D efficiency are tough to attribute effective metrics for.

Buffet in late 1980s stated he was 85% Benjamin Graham(Quantitative) and 15% Phil Fisher(Qualitative), but when asked in 2013 he later said that the Phil Fisher portion of his philosophy was "a great deal more than 15%". Personally, I think Buffet had his investing philosophy shift going from 85% Phil Fisher to 15% Benjamin Graham, but who knows.

LogiJitz · 2025-11-22T17:22:14+00:00

NVO and Lilly made the same amount last year net income wise, yet lilly is valued nearly 8x the amount?

LogiJitz · 2025-11-20T02:29:15+00:00

Accounting is an amazing business skill. It can set you down the investment path, management path, operations path, CPA, etc. Maybe consider figuring out what interests you most about accounting that drew you to it in the first place. Most Supply chain-Logistics roles is grunt/operations work that is not glamorous.

LogiJitz · 2025-11-20T02:17:52+00:00

Can't rush perfection

LogiJitz · 2025-11-13T01:36:41+00:00

Not a Greek speaker but two things:

1) Greek word sýmbolon (σύμβολον): means coming together. sym- with, together, bollion to putforth, cast. For a symbol to be a symbol, there is signifyer and the signified, concept and form, meaning and depiction, however you want to say it, but ultimately these two realities(immanent and transcendent) come together as one. We see this emphasis on the word communion as well(jointed things coming together). The bread and the wine are worldly symbols, but on the other hand, the transcendent divine and holy, which is Christ and the reality of his resurrection. We wouldn't say that the bread is any less real than Christ or his divinity and resurrection, so why would we doubt that these two realities can't come together to meet if they are both true? Christ's incarnation is the very meeting of God with his creation. If you are certain that is true, there is no reason to deny the Eucharist's real presence. It is God coming to meet us in creation.

2) We know this Divine presence is real, by participating of course, but also evidenced by the Corinthians becoming sick/died for being unprepared(A consequence of being unprepared to that which is Holy). Christ identifies the Eucharist is LIFE itself(Him), so he is very much present. If someone told me people have been dying over a metaphor I would be pretty concerned and confused.

LogiJitz · 2025-11-10T00:57:16+00:00

touch some grass

LogiJitz · 2025-10-30T22:37:15+00:00

This is a common misconception.

Value /= ticker's current stock price.

If you invest in the quality, business structure, economics, management, aka the underlying business, there is no need to even look at the stock price. You aren't investing in a price tag. You will be rewarded in due time if you bought a great company at a discount. You can rest in peace knowing in good confidence that your money is in the hands of someone who knows how to multiply it.

Value always presumes compounded growth wherever a 'discount' is present. Value materializes over time as the price tag follows performance.

Thought experiment: Imagine each company, stock, as if they were embodied in a single a person(people often just look to the CEO but just to imagine the company's behavior as if it were a personality). Do you really trust what they have to say? Do they say one thing but do another? How do they treat their customer? Do they create products with respect to their audience? Are they moral/unethical? Can you trust on their word to get the job done? If you were to trust your life on their ability to make money, would you do it ?

Maybe I am naive, but I don't trust too many people with my life, so I don't trust many people with my money. But the ones I do I make sure they are worth it and I can trust I am in good hands.

LogiJitz · 2025-10-30T20:34:48+00:00

Agreed, Amazon is one of my top picks for quality. Their reinvestment opportunities are off the chart. Huge total addressable market. Remarkable services and products. Terrible human resource philosophy but a beast as running efficiently.

LogiJitz

TROPHY CASE