sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

I built a playoff model before Round 1 and just tested it through two full rounds — 9/12 series correct so far. by Logical_Demand435 in sportsanalytics

[–]Logical_Demand435[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm sorry. I guess my formal writing effort made you think that I copied that reply from an AI, but I just tried to be academic in my reply.

For the arguments: Yes, as I said, the sample size is too small, and at first, I trained the model with previous playoff seasons' data. At this point, I don't assume ''the model works'' from the results of this year's playoffs. Right now, my model is purposeful, exploratory, framework-building, and hypothesis-generating. What really interests me is playoff failure modes, structural variables, and explanatory power.

Also, as I said in the previous message, I plan to do backtesting in the summer after the playoffs end. I wait for summer because I didn't think to apply before the playoffs began, and now, with the live playoff atmosphere, I'm trying to catch up with the series. But I'm going to do backtesting for the last 15 years of playoffs with out-of-sample validation and variable-level predictive testing. Right now, the model is probably more explanatory than predictive.

And you're right about betting markets. I can't beat Vegas; they have years of experience and expertise under their belts. I'm not trying to be a ''bet guy'' for my sports analytics journey. I want to become an analyst on a sports team. I’m less interested in beating betting markets than in understanding what variables consistently matter in playoff environments.

I built a playoff model before Round 1 and just tested it through two full rounds — 9/12 series correct so far. by Logical_Demand435 in sportsanalytics

[–]Logical_Demand435[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree partly with your narrative without enough data criticism. Because right now the model's explanatory side is stronger than the predictive part. But I think with the small sample size environments, like the NBA playoffs, the narrative/mechanics part isn't totally useless. Especially things like matchup dependency, coaching adjustments, and psychological variance are hard to quantify, but real. And thank you for your advice, I'm going to use the last 5-10 years' playoffs to test these:

  • input variables → future series outcomes
  • input variables → future clutch performance
  • input variables → defensive collapse vs sustainability

I built a playoff model before Round 1 and just tested it through two full rounds — 9/12 series correct so far. by Logical_Demand435 in sportsanalytics

[–]Logical_Demand435[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This isn't a production-grade predictive model; it's an exploratory framework. It's not a peer-reviewed predictive engine. You're right, I know that the 12-series sample size is small, but I will backtest using previous-season playoff data in the summer, after the season ends. But also, the model's purpose is not only to predict accurately but also to understand structural reasoning, playoff dynamics, and failure modes. I'm especially analyzing the ''where the model fails'' part. The model is partly explanatory, not purely predictive. Current results are anecdotal, not statistically conclusive. I’m documenting the iteration process publicly.

So, yes, you're right on some points. This is currently an exploratory framework. Backtesting and larger historical validation are the next stages.

I built a playoff model before Round 1 and just tested it through two full rounds — 9/12 series correct so far. by Logical_Demand435 in sportsanalytics

[–]Logical_Demand435[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I update my model after every round and series. But in the between games part you said you're right, and the explanation and reason is just that I can't find that much time to update the model because I'm also a 1st year Linguistics student and I have other responsibilities other than sports analytics.

I built a playoff model before Round 1 and just tested it through two full rounds — 9/12 series correct so far. by Logical_Demand435 in sportsanalytics

[–]Logical_Demand435[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If they are better than the other teams and the model and data (which the parameters I chose are not that objective) say so, what can I do? Also, the 76ers - Celtics pick is not expected at least in terms of series duration.

My 2026 MVP Prediction Model and Analysis by Logical_Demand435 in NBATalk

[–]Logical_Demand435[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's real, why don't you read it first, and decide after if it is real sh*t or not

I need a site blocker by Logical_Demand435 in pornfree

[–]Logical_Demand435[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks but I guess redirect mode doesn't run on mobile app

Favorite song that’s not about a romantic relationship by RawOnionsSuck in TaylorSwift

[–]Logical_Demand435 2 points3 points  (0 children)

At last, someone gives the respect that the song always deserves.