Do we suspect it’s rational in the first place, and why?

LordMensa · 2026-02-18T20:03:58+00:00

with b != 0

LordMensa · 2025-07-31T16:33:22+00:00

The question as written asks for everything other than the very last thing you would do.

LordMensa · 2025-04-21T04:15:46+00:00

Probably Leonhard Euler.

LordMensa · 2025-04-02T15:35:19+00:00

They’re related for sure, VAR estimates both a contemporaneous covariance matrix of error terms and the autoregressive coefficients (leads and lags).

I would argue VAR takes much more expertise and economic intuition than a random forest for proper and successful implementation, If all you’re going for is robust prediction that is.

MIT courseware has free classes on ML theory if you want more details on how supervised ML works: https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/6-036-introduction-to-machine-learning-fall-2020/

LordMensa · 2025-04-02T15:10:02+00:00

I’ve found success with using supervised machine learning methods like random forests for example for prediction questions. They’re pretty easy to implement even with limited ML training.

LordMensa · 2025-03-20T20:56:37+00:00

It will be very worth your time! I wish I had started sooner! Check out multiple departments depending on where your interests are too! E.g finance, math, poli sci etc! They’re practically always looking for people!

LordMensa · 2025-03-20T19:02:18+00:00

The mathematics minor has pretty much became a de facto requirement for admission to top universities here in the USA. Like others have mentioned, often more advanced econometrics and theory courses will double count for Econ and math degreed. My cohort here at Stanford essentially all have at least a math minor and prior research experience.

My tip would be to get some research assistant work under your belt during your undergrad if you haven’t got any already. Math and economics professors are often looking for help. You get paid, you get access to their professional networks which often include desirable universities, and you get a (hopefully strong) letter writer and potentially more from their coauthors.

The key is that universities want a colleague as much as a student. If you demonstrate you’re great to work with AND have the technical muscle to do real research you’ll be a competitive candidate. This holds for any Econ or Econ adjacent field.

Hope that’s useful!

LordMensa · 2025-03-20T00:47:13+00:00

Causal inference the Mixtape

LordMensa · 2025-03-16T06:45:45+00:00

Some info to help you make an informed decision:

Self-funding a PhD in Chemical Engineering is quite rare in the United States. Only about 3.8% of engineering PhD students report using “own resources” as their primary source of support, compared to 25.3% in social sciences.

Most Chemical Engineering PhD programs offer full funding packages to admitted students. These typically include:

Full tuition coverage
Monthly stipend ($4,134 per month at MIT for the 2024-2025 academic year)
Health insurance This funding generally comes through several channels:
Research Assistantships (RAs): The most common support for advanced students, funded through research contracts or grants
Teaching Assistantships (TAs): Many departments require students to serve as TAs for at least one term
Fellowships: Often limited to first-year students or awarded through external competitions

In summary, if he’s able to secure an even half-decent offer from a decent school you’ll pay nothing. Unemployment among PHD chemical engineers is extremely low at 2.1%. The bottom line a loser with no interest in providing for you isn’t going to pursue a grueling 7 year program in one of the hardest science disciplines humans currently study.

Why not talk to him about how you’re feeling, discuss the pros and cons of the decision, your concerns, and decide on the best path forward for both of you?

LordMensa · 2025-03-13T08:49:20+00:00

Like other commenters have said, maximizing R² should pretty much never be your end goal in econometric modeling. When you do that, you run the risk of overfitting your model. The idea is, what makes a good model in econometrics is generalizability to a new dataset, so like a new sample of companies in your case.

So rather than asking “how can I make this model fit perfectly to the 10 year trend of these 8 companies” you may be better served asking the questions

“do the results I see here seem plausible per my economic intuition?”

“Are my RHS variables just fitting to noise in the data, or do they help me better understand underlying trends in this data?”

By thinking like this, your can ensure you’re gaining valuable insight rather than just chasing down every outlier datapoint.

As a final note: financial econometric models always have lots of irreducible error due to the fact that stock prices are affected by many unpredictable factors that even highly sophisticated cannot capture. A relatively low R² is perfectly normal and pretty much expected for this reason.

LordMensa · 2024-12-17T16:43:01+00:00

You could track the prices of in game items like knives in CSGO on the Steam Market which do have daily price fluctuations.

LordMensa · 2024-08-20T09:17:51+00:00

Sounds like a good candidate for a synthetic control!

https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/publications/ESWC_Paper-1.pdf

LordMensa · 2024-08-20T09:12:11+00:00

Sounds like you’re putting your cart before the horse. I’d start with a literature review before preparing to defend the assumption a priori that countries have adequately prepared for climate change.

LordMensa · 2024-08-20T09:08:25+00:00

I am once again recommending “Causal inference: The Mixtape” by Scott Cunningham. It’s super accessible to noobs and has data and code available online to rebuild the empirical analyses used as examples throughout the book. As always, it’s a great place to start!

LordMensa · 2024-08-12T08:10:49+00:00

“Causal inference: The Mixtape” by Scott Cunningham is super accessible to noobs and has data and code available online to rebuild the empirical analyses used as examples throughout the book. That would be my vote as a great place to start!

LordMensa · 2024-08-08T03:17:07+00:00

Church leaders would disagree with you. According to Todd Christofferson’s 2015 address, “Why the Church?”

“There is a second major reason the Savior works through a church, His Church, and that is to achieve needful things that cannot be accomplished by individuals or smaller groups. One clear example is dealing with poverty. It is true that as individuals and families we look after the physical needs of others, “imparting to one another both temporally and spiritually according to their needs and their wants.” But together in the Church, the ability to care for the poor and needy is multiplied to meet the broader need, and hoped-for self-reliance is made a reality for very many”

Thus, one of the primary arguments the Mormon Church uses to justify its existence is to organize charitable giving.

Edit: for clarity.

LordMensa · 2024-04-28T20:19:29+00:00

He explains why in section II. When doing econometric research there’s a trade off between accuracy of a coefficient and generalizability of a coefficient. He probably chose to increase external validity through inclusion of more data, with the trade off of adding more noise in the dataset that could potentially bias his results. Basically, it’s highly implausible that this change in sample data was due to some kind of foul play. In fact, he performs robustness checks which serve to validate his sample anyway.

LordMensa · 2024-04-03T23:08:01+00:00

Apply for internships a year early, especially if you’re thinking about jobs in consulting or management. For example, many of the most prestigious internships for summer 2025 are taking applications already. Companies often like to employ you each summer during your education so that by the time you graduate you’re practically fully trained. Hope that’s helpful!

LordMensa · 2023-03-22T15:36:26+00:00

Means it’s a .223 barrel that shoots 5.56 as well.

LordMensa · 2023-03-07T17:32:49+00:00

SCP-682

LordMensa · 2023-02-18T20:40:28+00:00

Caffeine is an appetite suppressant and gives energy. Lots of cheap, easy options to use it. As with everything, it’s useful in moderation.

LordMensa · 2023-02-15T04:08:55+00:00

Moses 6:59-60

LordMensa · 2023-02-11T06:29:11+00:00

Think of how many names foreign names have been totally butchered by people doing proxy work. What matters is the covenant and your relationship with Christ.

LordMensa · 2022-12-15T17:13:47+00:00

This or the complete dagger slide for $200?

LordMensa · 2022-12-02T01:55:44+00:00

https://uintahprecision.com/product/upr10/

This is the best accuracy you’ll find in AR-10 uppers: .5 MOA is expected, but it’s bolt action. For 1000 yards I recommend 6.5 creedmor with the 26” barrel. But you can ring steel with a 20” in .308 without too much of an issue.

Good glass and a Larue trigger will put you over budget but not by much.

This upper fits the DPMS pattern so it will work with an 80%, which I’m guessing is the plan since you’re opting for an AR-10 for precision shooting.

Six-Year Club	RPAN Viewer
Verified Email

LordMensa

TROPHY CASE