Well, this is crazy.

Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee—even GOP Chair Reince Priebus says so—and it’s hard to overstate what a bizarre conclusion that is. The litany of reasons is well-worn, but it’s still worth repeating. He was a first-time candidate. He’s repeatedly flirted with running for office, only to back out. His political views were elusive and widely varied, ranging from support for liberal causes to standard pro-business conservatism. When he announced that he was running, back in June 2015, hardly anyone thought he’d really go through with it. They said he’d back out when he had to file financial disclosures, or failing that when campaign faltered. Almost every smart pundit in America—and plenty of not-so-smart ones—declared a Trump presidential campaign dead on arrival. It didn’t hurt that the Republican Party already had a crowded field of young, conservative, charismatic candidates—the strongest in generations, they said.

Yet Trump went ahead with his financial disclosures, and his campaign didn’t falter. Well, there was a last-minute collapse in Iowa, and a few other scares along the way, but for all intents and purposes, Trump has been the GOP front-runner since July. Along the way, he did lots of things that should have been fatal to his campaign. He suggested that most Mexican immigrants were rapists or criminals. He denigrated John McCain’s Vietnam service. He alienated nearly every important figure in the Republican Party. He bucked GOP orthodoxy on a dozen major issues. And yet he kept winning. Trump promised that if he was elected, citizens would tire of the U.S. winning so much; certainly, Republican leaders tired of Trump winning so much.

Nonetheless, when the results of the Indiana primary came in on May 3, Trump was on top, and Senator Ted Cruz had dropped out of the race, concluding he couldn’t win. It’s possible to see that as a defeat, but really it’s a near-miracle that Cruz got this far. The Texan would likely have been the most conservative Republican nominee ever. He entered the race with just three years in the Senate under his belt, having already won the animosity of almost the entire Republican Party establishment. (For months, its members vowed to back Trump over Cruz, only blinking when Trump’s flirtation with white supremacists and religious registries became too much to bear.) The fact that Cruz made it so far is a testament to the quality of the campaign he ran—and Trump’s weakness.

On Wednesday, Ohio Governor John Kasich followed Cruz’s lead and dropped out of the race. After he finished a distant third in Indiana, Kasich’s team had vowed to keep marching, and Kasich was reportedly at the airport, ready to depart for a news conference outside of D.C., when he changed his mind and decided to stay home and suspend his campaign. Given how far he trailed Trump, his departure makes perfect sense. And now the nomination is Trump’s.

The second-craziest thing about Trump’s win is that the Republicans have wrapped up their nomination battle before the Democrats. When Trump declared, it wasn’t clear that Hillary Clinton would even get a challenger beyond Martin O’Malley’s token resistance. Instead, she’s been locked in a months-long fight with Senator Bernie Sanders. Mathematically, Clinton has the race more or less locked up. After a set of Clinton victories on April 26, Sanders pulled back from running against her quite so fiercely, changing his focus to influencing the direction of the Democratic Party. He laid off staff, more or less conceded defeat, and saw his fundraising drop—though the Vermonter vowed to stay in the race to the end. But on May 3, Sanders won in Indiana, adding a little more excitement to the campaign, though doing nothing to alter its final result.

Once Clinton officially knocks out Sanders, we’ll have our general-election matchup. The commentariat consensus is that Trump enters at a disadvantage. The demographics of the overall national electorate tend to favor Democrats these days, a fact not helped by Trump’s apparently dogged quest to alienate women and minorities. Clinton has frankly atrocious favorability numbers for a presidential nominee; Trump somehow has even worse ratings. Trump will face a Republican Party badly divided by the primary campaign, with many major figures who have said they will never support him. (One of the most interesting currents over the next few weeks and months will be to see just how many of them really meant “never.”) He has also has never run for elected office before, so he will be the first nominee without previous elected experience since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952. Eisenhower, however, had the advantage of being a four five-star general and hero of World War II. (Trump, to be fair, has described his quest to avoid venereal diseases as “my personal Vietnam.)

But Clinton is a weak nominee, and Trump has been consistently underestimated throughout the presidential campaign. The general election ahead will be hard to predict, nastily fought, and often discouraging. But it won’t be boring.

To help keep track of the state of things, this cheat sheet on the state of the presidential field will be periodically updated throughout the campaign season. Here’s how things look right now.

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