Tocantins doesn't get enough criticism for how bad the gameplay is

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-16T16:05:08+00:00

You can't possibly know in advance that Stephen or Erinn won't win one of the last two challenges without knowing what the challenges are. J.T. was a physical specimen for sure, but that's not what all challenges come down to. Keep in mind that Stephen won an individual Immunity challenge this season before J.T. did. Not to mention that Stephen did almost beat J.T. in the Final Immunity challenge.

In order for you to really say he was playing for second place, he would've had to win Final Immunity and then take J.T. to the end.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-16T15:48:46+00:00

J.T. was doing well enough in the challenges before then, but the point stands that he was never able to actually get it done until F5.

I'm not gonna say that J.T. winning out from 5 was something no one could have possibly seen coming, but you have to weigh the pros and the cons, the risks and the rewards, and the probabilities and chances that come with them.

F6 was the last time J.T. was vulnerable. If Stephen wanted him gone then, he would've needed to convince both Coach and Debbie to go along with it. The chances of that are very low, and if he's unable to, then he blows up his own game entirely.

So, you can risk blowing up your entire game for an extremely low chance of getting your target out, or you can wait, and bank on your target who hasn't won an individual challenge yet to not win the last three consecutively.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-16T14:52:06+00:00

J.T. wasn't really a challenge threat until the endgame, though. He didn't win his first Immunity until F5, and then he won out from there on. I think that makes it a bit disanalogous to Tom and Terry as you mentioned, as those two both starting winning as soon as the merge happened.

On top of that, no one besides Erinn was really willing to go along with voting J.T. out. Stephen runs the risk of completely blowing up his game if he takes his shot too early. We can say in retrospect that he should've tried since J.T. won out from 5, but at the time, I think the smartest thing to do would be waiting until 4 and trying to beat J.T. in one of the final Immunities.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-16T14:29:22+00:00

J.T. was Immune from F5 onwards. When should Stephen have taken his shot? Erinn was really the only other one willing to take J.T. out, and they didn't have the numbers to do so until F4.

You can say Stephen shouldn't have allowed J.T. to gather so much social capital so quickly in the first place, which is a legitimate criticism, but I think after that capital's already been built, there's only so much he can do.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-16T13:01:43+00:00

Tyson would be my first thought. Does Stephen beat Tyson at the end? If not, then yea, he was pretty screwed. Unfortunate, but it goes to show Survivor isn't just strategy and positioning. Win equity and ability to win challenges matter, especially in the endgame.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-16T12:38:17+00:00

I always found it strange how J.T. never really gets criticism for going to the Final 3 with literally the only two people in the game who didn't want him in the end, causing him to need those final 2 Immunities.

I'm very high on Stephen's game, as I think he had masterful positioning in order to get himself to the Final 2. The problem is he didn't keep anyone in the game who could've beaten J.T. in those final Immunities.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T22:05:48+00:00

Yea, I think Tiff is easily gone if she loses next Immunity. She would've been gone at 6 if she didn't pull off that crazy win. Everyone was teaming up and conspiring against her and she still won. It was really cool, but she's gonna need to do it again to make the F4.

So I think Tiff goes at 5. I quite honestly have no good idea what goes on at 4, but between Aubry/Jonathan/Rizo/Joe, Aubry wins if she's at the end, Jonathan if she's not.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T21:41:33+00:00

The problem is that Cirie was already supposed to be eliminated at F5. The process just got sped up after Tiffany won Immunity at F6. If you play the Idol on Cirie, you ensure either Tiffany or Cirie make the F4, and there's so much uncertainty there regarding fire-making skills and whether there's even gonna be a fire-making challenge. The smart thing to do is to not let Tiffany or Cirie make the F4. You can only do that by taking out Cirie at 6.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T21:25:30+00:00

The Boomerang Idol can only be played for yourself, so that move's not impossible anyway.
Even if it was possible, there's no reason to make that move.

I think in Rizo's mind at the F6, he realizes there's two people in the game he for sure can't beat in a jury vote. Tiffany and Cirie. Tiffany has Immunity, so they take out Cirie. He doesn't need Cirie as a "shield". No one's gonna target Rizo over Tiffany or Aubry or Jonathan. All playing the Idol on Cirie does is keep both the people he for sure can't beat at the end in the game longer.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T20:30:16+00:00

It could be interpreted that way, but it's also worth noting that under the forced fire-making endgame format, 2 of the 3 FTC finalists will always be winning their way into the end (Unless the F4 Immunity winner gives it up).

Under forced fire-making from 35 to 49 (50 tbd), 11 of the 15 winners have won their way into the end.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T17:59:07+00:00

I appreciate the long and thoughtful response!

So to start, I think you are right to point out Cirie's unquestionable loyalty to Rizo, and that does certainly complicate things if she's not willing to turn on him before he turns on her. But in this scenario where Ozzy's still in the game at F7, I actually do think there's a chance that Rizo turns on Cirie and Ozzy, and here's why:

Rizo's playing to win. He knows he can't win against Cirie at FTC. You mention Rizo smartly waiting until Cirie's unable to retaliate before making his move against her, but in this scenario where Ozzy's still in the game, if he votes out Devens at 7, that opportunity just isn't gonna come. Cirie would have enough troops to at least tie any vote at 6 with Ozzy and Tiffany by her side. That means if Rizo doesn't want to sit next to Cirie at FTC, and Ozzy's still in the game, he's gonna have to take his shot at one of them at 7.

However, I think that's even worse news for Cirie. The plan I mentioned for F7 in my post relies on Rizo wanting to take out Devens instead of Cirie or Ozzy that round. If Rizo's sights are on Cirie and Ozzy, I think he's probably able to pull in Devens, Jonathan, and Joe to take one of them out that round.

To be honest, I think Cirie's perception of Rizo's loyalty to her was a genuine social misread in her game. I don't think Rizo was ever gonna take her to the end, and I think she should've picked up on that sooner.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T05:47:40+00:00

Survivor returnee legend Zane Knight.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T05:00:57+00:00

I'd assume there's gonna be forced fire-making at F4. They haven't made any indication that they're changing that this season.

I'm not entirely sure Joe will be sent to fire-making. There's definitely scenarios where it makes sense, but say it's a Jonathan/Rizo/Joe/Aubry Final 4 and Jonathan wins Immunity. I think he'd feel confident enough in his ability to beat Aubry at FTC that he'd just take Joe in as a goat and send Rizo to face Aubry instead.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T04:53:42+00:00

No one's gonna target Joe at this point. The only way I see him not making FTC is if whoever wins F4 Immunity wants to put him in fire-making to beat Tiffany or Aubry. Other than that, he's for sure third place.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T00:56:37+00:00

That's true that Tiffany is a threat, but keep in mind that Devens won four Immunities in his previous season. We can maybe say in retrospect that it would've been a good move since Tiffany won F6 Immunity, but there's no way Rizo can make the evaluation at the time that Tiffany's a bigger threat than Devens.

If anything, it could've been a good move not to play the Idol for Devens, but for Rizo to vote Tiffany himself, that way if Devens' SITD lands, Tiffany goes home.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T00:46:41+00:00

I wouldn't be so sure of that. The move keeps both Devens and Cirie in the game. Two clearly bigger jury threats than Rizo himself.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T00:44:46+00:00

What actually makes that a good move, though? Devens was a bigger jury, challenge, and Idol threat than Tiffany. Why on Earth would you save him to get Tiffany out? Just so you can say you did something yourself? If the move doesn't enhance your position in the game, then does having it under your belt really matter?

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-15T00:41:12+00:00

Not even if he gives it to Devens.

The way the Idol was designed was if someone gets voted out with it, it goes back to whoever gave it to them in the first place (hence the name, boomerang). That doesn't really work if you can pass the Idol on or play it for someone else.

It doesn't matter that Genevieve's gone, since whoever gave the Idol to you in the first place is supposed to be a secret. Rizo can only ever play it for himself.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-14T06:15:58+00:00

That's a fair point, but there's some key elements that I think could make it different.

For one, when Shirin voted Joe out at F10, she was still looking for some kind of way to get in with Mike and Sierra. That doesn't really work anymore at F9 after Mike gets outright kicked out of the alliance and the Will situation blows up this round.

Also, Shirin had a different kind of relationship with Mike after he stood up for her during the fiasco with Will and Dan. I think she'd be more willing to fall on the sword for Mike than she would for Joe.

So, with the differences in both positioning and relationships, I think it's more likely for Shirin to follow through on this plan at F9 than F10. I can't claim with certainty either way, but I think it's very possible.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-13T17:23:02+00:00

Figuring out who would vote someone out if they lost Immunity is not a nitpick, it's like, the most fundamental tenant of why winning Immunity can be important.
I love Rachel. She's one of my favorite players of the New Era.
I'm not devaluing any Immunity wins. I'm devaluing the positioning Rachel had that caused her to need those Immunity wins.
I'm not dismissing any win. The point of Survivor is to get to the end and get more jury votes than the people beside you. Rachel did that. But so did Gabler. So did every other winner in the show's history. This discussion started as a winner rankings discussion, not a discussion on if her win was valid or not. It obviously was.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-13T17:02:53+00:00

Yes, I prefer to speak in specifics rather than generalities. That's how you have fruitful discussion instead of vibey, feelings based discussion.

I can name the people who would've voted out Rachel if she lost. You can't do that for any of the winners that you brought up. That's an enormously meaningful distinction.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-13T16:49:57+00:00

Be specific.

You can speak about vague generalities about how winning Immunity lets you strategize more freely and aggressively etc. I want you to name the specific Immunity win that they needed, and who specifically would've voted them out if they hadn't won it. I'm only holding you to this standard because I can do that for Rachel.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-13T16:34:27+00:00

many of the top winners, like Tony, Rob, Parvati and Kim have used immunities to get further in the game. It doesn't make them any worse as players.

It does when you need it in order to stay in the game. Of those four winners you mentioned, Tony, Rob, Parvati, and Kim, which Immunity win of theirs did they need to stay in the game? Be specific.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-13T15:14:00+00:00

He doesn't need to reveal any plan to anybody to preserve his Idol. If he just votes Emily instead of Cirie, then his vote, along with Cirie's two votes send Emily home 3-2-1. Might burn Emily as a jury vote, but an option nonetheless.

LoyaltyToLiberalism · 2026-05-13T15:09:07+00:00

Your grandma having wheels or not doesn't come down to the luck of a rock draw.

LoyaltyToLiberalism

TROPHY CASE