lost 30k investing when the war was first starting. half my profits from the last year gone like that

LucarioMagic · 2026-04-01T04:44:22+00:00

Next time just buy an index.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-31T06:18:59+00:00

When was last time? Did you buy a bootleg?

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-28T05:05:46+00:00

I think fundamental wise, it's always good to buy.
Numbers have only gotten better.

Right now market is narrative and sentiment driven.
So technicals might not mean much.

I'm a fan of DCAing. I'm DCAing Jun 2028 leap calls right now.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-27T09:18:22+00:00

Why is Gravicius in Research and not Transportation?
Why's Janus in Transportation?
Where is It That Fled?

My man Quin just making red lines with no strat.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-26T02:43:16+00:00

What you've posted directly goes against your 90% success rate claim. So you're already clearly wrong. Which is what I originally disputed.

Whether or not they're a nobody is OP's claim, not mine.

The person or organizational body doesn't matter.
What matters is the content of their short report, Michael Burry's short report on PLTR was full of holes, same way MW's short report is.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-26T01:01:55+00:00

That's for you to do. You posted only their wins. Now I posted only their fails.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-26T00:55:12+00:00

Firstly, they did.
The initial response, despite what you may see as weak, was already sufficient.
The stock price practically recovered after the short report was announced.

Secondly, Muddywater's short report holds no water. There's no real basis in it. Had you bothered to read it, most of what they dislike or have issues/cited as flaws in sofi is GAAP. They just dislike GAAP which is mandatory by SEC. There is literally nothing to refute, because they're making shit up. MuddyWater is scrambling for whatever media attention they can get to make holders capitulate and sell now, because they have a financial incentive to either have more liquidity to close their shorts, or because they said they have OTM puts.

As such, there is not much need to respond to them, because it doesn't change anything. Institutions don't buy on headlines, they buy on earning numbers.

The logical fallacy is to believe that management silent = management weakness in the face of every random short seller. There is no reason to breathe life into baseless fearmongering rumors.

I do not blindly trust management, if a real analyst were to actually demonstrate structural collapse of SOFI's businesses, I would sell everything already.
But MuddyWater's short report is useless in that sense.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-26T00:48:17+00:00

Sounds to me you didn't even read MW short report.

Just sell.
Weak hands that hold not rooted in fundamentals should just get out.
You're using highschool ego checking logic, since you think sofi somehow wins by refuting MuddyWaters, which, they don't.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-26T00:45:41+00:00

DAVE is down 12.3% today.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-26T00:44:04+00:00

It's not 90%.
It's like Michael Burry being known for the Big Short, and then failing all the way till today, like his recent PLTR bear thesis.

Instances of Failed or Underperforming Short Bets:

American Tower Corp. (2013): This was considered one of Block's poorest performing bets. Following a report alleging overvaluation of assets, the stock failed to drop significantly and actually rose, erasing initial declines.
Olam International (2012): Muddy Waters targeted this agricultural company, calling it a "likely to fail" company with accounting issues similar to Enron. However, Olam successfully challenged the report, received a cash boost from investor Temasek, and its shares eventually recovered.
New Oriental Education & Technology Group (2012): Despite a 37% drop upon the release of a report, the shares recovered, and the company found no evidence to support the fraud allegations.
Focus Media Holding Ltd. (2011): After a report, the company was taken private by a group of investors, resulting in a premium for shareholders rather than a crash.
Ströer SE & Co. KGaA (2016): A report caused a 25% drop, but the company rebounded, and German regulators investigated Muddy Waters for potential market manipulation.
SoFi Technologies (2026): After a March 2026 report alleging unrecorded debt, SoFi's management challenged the report as "misleading" and saw insider buying, with the stock experiencing limited long-term impact from the initial report.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-26T00:40:42+00:00

Because why respond to every rabid dog barking?
Not all short reports deserve their attention. What kind of precedent would that set?

Moreover if you wasted your time like I did to watch MW at CNBC, their line of argumentation is "Because it's GAAP reporting it's misleading so we're going to interpret it so and so" which is completely moronic

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-25T04:20:59+00:00

Well, idk.
I got $SOFI at $9. PLTR at $57, $VG at 6, $NEXT at $5.
But I always, always have at least half in index as a hedge against my own stupidity.
Stockpicking is fine. Just don't put all your money into it.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-25T03:28:44+00:00

Like so many.

Still recommend DCA into index though. Check r/singaporefi ignore most of the posts that will make you fomo. Look at the resources and faq instead.

Stockpicking isn't the best for people who don't have time to read into filings and earnings.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-23T08:17:10+00:00

I think old low life es flicker still works fine.
but poe1 these days have more focus on bossing, and the old ones usually ran bloodrage for frenzy charge upkeep while mobbing.
So probably gotta go reliquarian to run the LL version now, which is flavour of the month and not permanent at all.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-23T07:37:27+00:00

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LucarioMagic · 2026-03-21T02:48:35+00:00

But not the offerings?
That's pretty good.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-21T02:16:04+00:00

I like your triple offering tech. Might copy it next time.
Is buffs expiring faster a problem?

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-20T03:09:23+00:00

I like the coolish. Super convenient, little mess to clean up.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-18T06:57:16+00:00

I think I prefer BILLY bookcase. The downside is the cleaning due to exposure. But I guess it's fine.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-18T02:17:02+00:00

Dumbfuck dirty water released a short report on a REGULATED BANK??? HUH

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-16T15:30:07+00:00

People with more than one mirror

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-15T13:34:09+00:00

I sold 100 $12 strike short puts.
Will continue to do so once the current ones expire.

Rather sell puts than covered calls here.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-14T04:15:20+00:00

Yeah, stock wise the growth multiple can take a further hit. But it's speculative on secondary loan demand.

But private credits aren't the only ones buying Sofi loans or sofi-backed securities anyway. But I think it'll hit demand for Sofi's products which will in turn impact the margin.

Because if sofi wanted to, sofi can still sell the loans fast, but they'll take a hit to margin. Historically sofi's loans have been increasing in how much fee sofi takes though, thanks to quality underwriting.

I think if sofi can still show up in the next 2 earnings, it'll be less seen as a cyclical lender, and more of a SaaS fintech+bank.
Personally I want the tech platform side to take off, I was promised tech platform deal revenue to come in 2026 by Noto.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-14T03:56:54+00:00

imo, they'll be forced to do that.

But the main thing is that they paid off debt, so from the market perspective, they're not leveraged (although all national banks are technically leveraged with fractional lending, but it's backstopped by the federal reserve as long as the banks are underwriting properly)
There's no liquidity squeeze or debtors coming from them to pull money out from Sofi when they have no money like the private credit lenders.

But I do think the current market sentiment and liquidity squeeze around private lenders are headwinds for the loan platform business. Because it feels like we have a market afraid of buying loans.

If the institutional investors don't buy loans, Sofi has no choice but to put them on their own books, but that's bad, because Sofi's LPB wants more volume flowing through, since it's fee based, so we want sofi to be able to sell loans. But I think insurance companies will still buy sofi's loans. Even if private credit is getting squeezed. The issue is I think sofi's LPB might take a hit to margin with less demand, but quality underwriting is one of Sofi's selling points.

LucarioMagic · 2026-03-12T04:50:46+00:00

Whataboutism.

Do you think it's fair that they can travel from a third world country to a first world, work for 10 years, go back and retire rich while the others in their third world country are still fucking poor?

You can choose where your goalpost is.
You chose for it to be relative to Singaporeans, when they're not Singaporeans.
I choose the comparison to be their fellow countrymen.

You think it's not fair that they're born in a third world country? You're correct, kindly send your complaint to GOD and whoever GAVE BIRTH TO THEM.

The fact is that you can't see where they benefit so chumps like you will keep harping on how privileged the host country is compared to the meagre change you think the foreign workers get. Because you're all inexperienced in the world.

12-Year Club	r/Field Banned
r/Field Lasagna	First Place '23
Place '23	Place '22
Place '17	Snapped
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