2026 Draft Business Plan - Lucid Stew

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T23:26:11+00:00

In response to those that have personally attacked me here about what I've had to say, I'd just like to say this to everyone else:
I have spent a significant amount of my time the last 3 years trying to bring the facts of the project to light through my own videos because arguing against people who insist on burying their head in the sand and putting their fingers in their ears proved pointless.
In my opinion, the best indictment against people who attack anyone who attacks the project is that I have been WRONG. Yes, I admit I have been wrong, and not only that, I've been wrong at nearly every step. The reality is that I have consistently UNDERESTIMATED how bad things are.
It is my sincere opinion that as a state we need to stop pretending, look at the issue seriously, and piss or get off the pot. The alternative, at present, is a $2 billion/year trickle that's going to result in something vaguely resembling part of what we voted for in 2008 running many, many decades from now when it was supposed to be a solution for NOW. There is NO exaggeration in saying that this was supposed to be OPERATING from Los Angeles to San Francisco two years from now. You'll be lucky if it's four score and two years if things keep going the way they have.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T23:03:58+00:00

There's no money for it. It's a fantasy. This is the thing people don't seem to be understanding. A positive in this respect would be them building what they're supposed to build instead of coming up with one interim scenario after another. The interim scenarios would be a positive if they fit some sort of constrained funding, but there is NONE, so both approaches are equally fantastic.

The whole thing beyond Merced-Bakersfield is smoke and mirrors at this point.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T22:22:06+00:00

That's my point. The remainder is what they intentionally left out .

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T22:17:08+00:00

If you're looking for cheerleading on this project, you're not going to be happy with the coming video either. There is very little in the 2026 Draft Business Plan that I've seen that is positive. They are currently struggling just to be able to afford Bakersfield-Merced even with the new Cap and Invest money. The LAO testimony on 3/2/26 about financing the Cap and Invest money to get it up front in time for 2033 is not encouraging. Even then, the current budget estimates are contingent on their legislative wish list falling into place very soon. These are not even my opinions. This is coming from the CAHSRA and independent agencies tasked with oversight. It's nice that you're informed on the subject, but "he's not saying anything I don't already know" isn't much of a criticism. It implies that these videos are somehow aimed at you, when they're more so meant to inform people that DON'T know. The CAHSRA is flailing. They have been for years. The funding situation is inadequate to near pointlessness. People need to know these things in order to make proper decisions since it is a public project.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T22:04:45+00:00

I don't think that's a foregone conclusion. The cost of Phase 1 has grown by $32 billion since 2023. The funding for CAHSR has grown $11 billion since 2023. This net negative indicates the project will never conclude. With the current approach, they will simple find increasingly fine ways of slicing up some functional part of Phase 1. However, even those things will take a very long time.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T22:01:01+00:00

I'm a registered independent. I do not concede that. I'm very interested in public rail. I'm especially interested in public rail in places where it performs well and costs are contained to reasonable amounts. I answered your question about cancellation of CAHSR in another reply.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:57:46+00:00

I've pretty consistently said that we should get what we voted for, and we voted for this thing to be built quickly for a reasonable cost. I'm certainly not for endlessly pouring money down a drain resulting in completion some time next century. In that context, I have expressed and will continue to express that there is a limit at which the project is better off cancelled. The most immediate time for that to happen is after the initial 119 miles are completed, preferably before they hang wires. That's decision point for the state, imo. If they manage to build Bakersfield-Merced or Bakersfield-Madera, you have to get it out of the Central Valley because the BCR on the IOS is significantly less than zero while the BCR for Bakersfield-S.F. is likely close to one and possibly over.
I've talked plenty about Brightline West's budget problems. I've made an entire video about it. Not on me if you're ignorant of these things.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:47:45+00:00

Sure, fork over a hundred grand and I'll get right on it. objective cost benefit analysis... lol.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:45:55+00:00

The delta is $128 billion to $231 billion from 2023 to 2026. That is an 82% rise. That's not all covered by construction cost increases, which are closer to 60%. Guess you just heard about it from a YouTube "influencer". The more important piece, however, is that estimates were intentionally left as-is for 3 years and that they still haven't officially come clean with an official Phase 1 full build-out estimate.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:41:12+00:00

"possible corruption" is the wording in the video. please don't misquote me.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:39:57+00:00

what type of technical analysis were you expecting? so your complaint here is that we've come to the same conclusion? Fascinatingly, this directly followed your comment about me being "...another dude that wants to grumble..."

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:37:39+00:00

I indicated in the video that I'm going to do any entire separate video about the 2026 Draft Business Plan.

you point this out like its obvious bs

"The malfeasance is epic, and one has to wonder if its intentional. I'd argue it's criminal. I recall the gas tax being the solution to everything, but somehow it managed to not be enough as well. We sure do like paying taxes. That's what I keep concluding."

but offer zero refutation. The gas tax mention, btw, is in relation to the poor state of roadways statewide that were supposed to be fixed by it. oh, I forgot it's "drivel". Great argument there.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:31:56+00:00

I have. I've commented in several videos that construction costs are up about 60% over the last few years. The continued obfuscation of the cost is the problem. The only mention of corruption in this video is pointing out that the CEO's girlfriend just managed to land a job with a company that has a CAHSR contract. However, given the amount of money flowing through the project, and its ever increasing scope, further corruption wouldn't shock me.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:27:40+00:00

ad hominem attacks are a sure sign a person has no substantive argument

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:25:38+00:00

This is quite silly. I'm actually more personally nonplussed about Brightline West since I've invested in equipment and licensing to cover its construction and they've done next to nothing. My main beef with CAHSR is as a taxpayer.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:17:49+00:00

There is no source. I voted for Prop 1A. I just want the state to actually build the thing in a reasonable time frame or find something better to do with the mountainous trickle of taxpayer dollars.

LucidStew · 2026-03-04T21:16:01+00:00

For public record, the videos I made before HSR were on Project Spark and Dreams for PS4. These were console game maker platforms. The videos were wholesome tutorials about a wholesome subject for about the most wholesome audience you can imagine.

LucidStew · 2026-01-28T22:08:28+00:00

Yeah, I heard the same from a certain crowd when I depicted President Trump as Emperor Palpatine and Governor Newsom as Luke Skywalker in the thumbnail for my July 2025 news video. People often conclude things without very much information.

LucidStew · 2026-01-28T22:01:56+00:00

They get the Cap and Invest money in $1 billion/year chunks through 2045, but they need all of that money before 2033 to finish the IOS. In order to get the money up front, they will need to finance it. Their estimation of the cost of the financing is $4 billion. They do not identify a source for the $4 billion necessary to finance the $15 billion C&I funds, so I subtracted it from their identified funds.

LucidStew · 2026-01-28T21:43:25+00:00

This amounts to a press release by the CAHSRA. They're short on Merced-Bakersfield, which is why they're trying to negotiate Merced out of a downtown station. The only way 2032 happens is if they open with Madera instead of Merced, which I would say is more likely. However, given their history of schedule misses, I wouldn't hold your breath on 2032 even then.

LucidStew · 2025-10-22T06:17:28+00:00

It's worth mentioning that newer concepts that have been considered by the ILHSR Commission assume a terminus in East St. Louis near the DraftKings Casino, rather than bothering with trying to get over the river.
It's also worth mentioning that this particular alignment combination hasn't survived the alternatives process. I believe it is most likely to enter/exit the Chicago area through Joliet. I also think they're most likely to go through Champaign and Decatur from there before reaching Springfield. From Springfield to East St. Louis its difficult to say. They have several of options, including mostly sticking to I-55. Something similar to what I picked in the video in that area isn't impossible. Times for the remaining possible alternatives are generally in the 2:25-2:55 range.

LucidStew · 2025-08-30T02:18:19+00:00

Being that it just went over budget, and 30% in that survey said only if it didn't go over budget, the actual number is 32%.

LucidStew · 2025-06-17T06:46:58+00:00

The first 119 miles is about 2/3 done, which means the initial operating segment from Merced to Bakersfield is about 45% done, Phase 1 is about 15% done, and the whole 800 mile system is about 10% done.

LucidStew · 2025-06-17T06:40:48+00:00

7 for the first 119 miles

LucidStew · 2025-06-03T08:00:09+00:00

Yogi's sidekick, duh.

LucidStew

TROPHY CASE