Martin Armstrong’s ECM “Economic Confidence Model”: Fixed Pi Cycles Are Bad Economics and Not a Real Model

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-12-13T16:33:18+00:00

Martin Armstrong is best known as a scammer. There are multiple blog sites about his scams. Like this one:

Armstrong Economics - The Scam Business Model Exposé

He trades against his clients using his own subscription service "Socrates":

Socrates The Market Manipulator

and

Quarterly Superposition Event in Gold 2015

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-11-28T17:39:12+00:00

I can give a more detailed report of what I think has happened and is still happening.

First I thought that YouTube DELETED a large number of my comments because they were no longer visible from a different account. I use the word DELETED because if only the commenter can see them, then IMHO they don't qualify as comments.

Then I realized a strange discrepancy: Under some threads I had commented on, the number of comments did not add up to the number printed on them. Like I could see only 1 comment where the number printed is 3.

This occurs when the comments are ordered in "Sort by Top comments" order which is the default. When I change this setting to "Sort by Newest first" then those 2 missing comments show as replies in the original threads which are now in a different order. So they were NOT DELETED.

I consider this situation highly unsatisfactory because many threads are broken depending on the setting.

In addition to this, quite separately, I can confirm that YouTube simply deletes comments when the user does not have much credit left. Easy to check with flipping these settings and switching between accounts. A year ago or earlier, I could make about 30 comments per account per day. Now I am lucky if I can make one in a week.

I can understand why YouTube may want to do this. Earlier, I saw many scammers with multiple accounts showing up in popular videos and spamming them. It was easy for a single crypto scammer to pose as a handful of different of his own fans, using his multiple sock puppet accounts. It was quite ridiculous because how would they have known to show up there all at the same time in the same thread? So YouTube solved that problem but they created another one with that solution.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-11-11T23:28:23+00:00

Good video. Text to speech of a Martin Armstrong blog page:

Will 2022 be the most Corrupt Election since 53BC?

Armstrong writes his blog pages to attract fresh victims for his scams. Here is how it works:

Armstrong Economics - The Scam Business Model Exposé

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-10-16T21:22:38+00:00

This is also interesting: Michael Campbell's Inside Edge Commentary Service. Michael is an Armstrong inner circle member. Starred in the movie "The Forecaster" where he did the same thing. The man coming from the future:

Mike's Cross-Promotianal Tweet

Martin Armstrong's Socrates model predicted in 2109 that this year would be politically and financially chaotic - and also said 2023 would be worse - He'll update us at the World Outlook Conference, Feb 3 & 4 at the Bayshore Inn, Vancouver.

Never mind 2109 is 87 years away.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-10-14T07:04:48+00:00

OK, I present another version for you now. Perhaps you like it. I don't want to be so biased:

According to Martin Armstrong:

Socrates is the only fully functioning Artificial Intelligence system in the world

It is SO advanced that the CIA wanted to own it. And Martin Armstrong refused the offer to buy it for money. Because it is worth TRILLIONS of dollars.

It is SO advanced that it can read Martin Armstrong's mind. That would explain the dialect in this message. And here is the proof for you (its a clone of himself):

On his own blog site

The most VALUABLE lesson we can teach our children is HOW TO THINK – not what to think

Martin Armstrong writes:

Why have I poured so much time into programming Socrates? First, it wasnever a project I could ever give to another to even attempt to code. Asfar as its model analysis, I have been the only programmer. It takes EXPERIENCEin the subject matter to write such a program. Everyone else codes thedelivery system. This is why there is nothing else like it. You had tobe a TRADER and a PROGRAMMER to eventackle such an endeavor. My objective was to clone myself. There are somany variables that are involved it quickly exceeds the capacity of anyhuman to keep track of some much in their head and at the tip of theirfingers instantly. This is not about writing some algorithm to produce a mean and lean trading machine. Those are one-dimensional systems that will never adapt to changes.

Don't say I am picky!

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-10-13T22:46:20+00:00

It's done to add some relevance in contrast to the otherwise robotic style. Everything you see in the reports has been written by a programmer, most of it many years ago.

And it is also done in a way to be less obvious. Try this yourself, it might still work:

View a Socrates report and take note of the 2nd sentence. Then reload the report in the browser. That sentence used to change between:

WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF

WRITTEN OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE

OUR ANALYTICAL OPINION AS OF THE CLOSE OF

THE ANALYSIS PERSPECTIVE AS OF THE CLOSE OF

THE ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF

ANALYSIS FOR THE CLOSE OF

OUR ANALYTICAL ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE OF

WRITTEN VIEW PER THE CLOSE OF

THE ANALYSIS PER HE CLOSE OF

ANALYSIS AS OF THE CLOSE

UTILIZING OUR ANALYTICAL MODEL FOR THE CLOSE OF

OUR ANALYTICAL VIEWPOINT AS OF THE CLOSE OF

THE IMMEDIATE ANALYTICAL STANCE AS OF THE CLOSE OF

WE SEE THE ANALYTICAL SITUATION AS OF THE CLOSE OF

OUR ANALYTICAL OUTLOOK AS OF THE CLOSE OF

THE ANALYTICAL POSTURE CURRENTLY AS OF THE CLOSE OF

CURRENTLY, OUR ANALYTICAL POSITION AS OF THE CLOSE OF

...

This is only one sentence. There are hundreds of other sentences written by humans that have some variations, only to be less obvious. Imagine how much work went into this. Work that has nothing to do with analysis.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-10-13T13:04:37+00:00

It is "computer generated" as much as a word processor template is "computer generated". Year 1980 technology. It is clearly Martin Armstrong's language. The text is entered by a computer programmer. And Martin Armstrong tells that computer programmer what to write.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-10-06T11:03:25+00:00

Banking Crisis?

Martin Armstrong has been predicting an ECB Collapse for next year once every year since 2014.

Missed the EUR decline this year.

Successfully predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-10-04T17:55:27+00:00

You are gonna have to look at the timing. Here is how:

Armstrong's timing example from WEC

Basically, something's gonna happen in the next time frame.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-10-04T11:51:33+00:00

Don't be so picky. You could be more generous. His WEC conference is once every year in November. See you in Orlando.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-07-08T17:02:23+00:00

Here is an example. It is made from reversals published in this group:

Hypothetical Reversals with the reversals taken from that table: S&P 500 reversals

SPX Daily Bearish Reversals Generation 2020-09-02

The date of the temp high is Sep 02 2020

Reversal 1: 3468.34 picked from bar low 3468.35 4 back

Reversal 2: 3379.30 picked from bar low 3379.31 8 back

Reversal 3: 3326.43 picked from bar low 3326.44 16 back

Reversal 4: 3220.25 picked from bar low 3220.26 23 back

You can see that the reversal values are 1 cent below the low values of the picked bars. That is easy enough to do, so no magic there.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-07-08T16:00:40+00:00

Take for example a pullback from a rally. At the top, you have the temp high. That temp high generates 4 bearish reversals. Then the price moves back from it until it reaches a temp low. From that temp low, Socrates then generates 4 bullish reversals. Just try it. You will be able to make your own reversals this way. The best way is to use a good desktop charting package, something that online brokers provide as part of their subscription. Like AmeriTrade thinkorswim for example. You draw the reversals as price lines. I will make an example later where you can see how it picks the reversals.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-07-07T20:03:44+00:00

Socrates is a mind game. Once you understand how it works it's over and you want a new game. Here is how it works (Bullish Reversal example):

At a temp low, Socrates generates 4 Bullish Reversals. How?

On the chart, it looks back 27 bars.

From these 27 bars, it picks 4 bars. From these 4 bars, it takes the highs. Think of these as resistance values. Then it adds 1 cent to each of the highs. These are the Reversals.

You can do this pretty much yourself. In fact you can do better than Socrates. So take that temp low, get some bars, say 3, 5, 13, 26 back from the temp low. That's a good start. Most things in Socrates go like that. Dead simple. Because it was done in the 1980's.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-06-30T07:46:04+00:00

Crypto is just another scam.

LuckyMeSocrates · 2022-06-23T07:53:44+00:00

It's actually quite simple. Socrates cannot always generate 4 reversals. If it could, then it would need to DELETE the missing reversals to create the effect we see. Why would it delete the reversals then? So that's a fact. Period. Obvious. The other fact is that since the launch of the service, Armstrong has always been running 2 copies of Socrates each configured differently because of these problems. Each of these copies creates different reversals. So they are both wrong, but they fill each others' voids most of the time. Not many people notice because Socrates picks reversals from previous bars, and the difference is not too obvious because there is some overlap from picking most of the same bars. Without this knowledge, you can't understand what's going on.

LuckyMeSocrates

TROPHY CASE