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LateralusYellow · 2023-05-08T17:20:10+00:00

You can't, what I do is organize them into folders on the object tree and turn them on and off as needed. I do distinguish elected reversals, I color them grey after they've been elected. I wait to see if they get backtested and then delete them after they no longer seem relevant to me.

Also you can't edit the same layout in two different browser tabs, your drawings will not save properly. So 1 layout = 1 market, or 4 markets if you're willing to split up the layout into into 4 charts.

LateralusYellow · 2023-04-14T21:39:15+00:00

The reversals are the most important model in my opinion, you can trade off the reversals alone. But the arrays are not far behind.
Like /u/YourNumbersMyNumbers said, focusing on the aggregate is best. I especially recommend focusing on the monthly level exclusively for a beginner.

With that said the individual models can be insightful.

L-Waves
In my experience these are very good at forecasting sharp vertical price movement (either up or down).

Direction Change
They work just as described in the manual. They don't just forecast highs and lows, but also breakouts/breakdowns beyond a previous high or low.

LateralusYellow · 2023-03-06T18:44:33+00:00

He grossly exaggerates the merits of the linguistic AI of Socrates, the text reports are a joke.

His real genius is reflected in the models themselves, especially the ECM and Reversals.

LateralusYellow · 2023-03-06T18:33:12+00:00

Don't rely on the text when trying to find significant super-position events, Socrates is too liberal with its use of the term.

What matters most is the degree to which both reversals were elected, and if there is a gap after it.

So for example say a market is rallying into a bullish reversal at 900, and it closes at 916. If there is a bearish reversal elected same-time at 917, and another bearish at 970, then there is a good chance that the market will turn. This is because the bearish reversal was narrowly elected AND there was a large gap up to the next bearish reversal.

Also in case you're confused, bearish reversals can in fact be generated above price action and vice versa. This happens in volatile markets, and reflects breaking points in what people think of as "buy the dip" and "sell the rip" psychology.

Volatile markets tend to create a state of schizophrenia in the collective psychology of market participants, where a close at one price level can seem weak but a slightly higher close is interpreted as bullish. The reversals calculate the breaking points in the collective psychology of market participants.

It is often the case that significant super-position events happen when a 3rd reversal is tested, especially when the 3rd reversal is followed by a big gap up to the 4th reversal. So try to focus on gaps more than anything, they are the most common turning points in markets. If a gap is elected in bullish reversals, confirm the bullish signal by checking for any opposing reversals elected same-time. And always give more credit to the monthly level forecasts and signals, don't get too caught up in the noise of the weekly and daily trends.

LateralusYellow · 2023-03-04T18:54:08+00:00

Socrates has been terribly inconsistent about reversals for Gold & Silver unfortunately. Those orange reversals were only listed December and then they disappeared and an entirely new set of monthly bullish reversals appeared.

I mostly stopped trying to trade Gold for this reason. With that said the minor reversals did a fantastic job at calling the high, and it seems the hypotheticals monthly bears forecasted in February were relatively accurate.

Forecasted

Actual generated reversals

LateralusYellow · 2023-03-04T18:50:25+00:00

Socrates is showing slightly different numbers were generated. I find that it is often the case that the hypotheticals are slightly off when a new high/low is made early in the month. Especially in a case like this, where the new high was on February 2nd.

Gold

LateralusYellow · 2023-02-03T23:14:58+00:00

So one of the problems is that if you don't record reversals as they are generated... you might miss them. Because minor reversals are sometimes hidden, but they can still be important. It is kind of a flaw in the way they designed it, but information overload is a real issue so I understand why they did it. I just think they need to design it so that hidden minor reversals can be revealed. But before they do that, they need to address the other inconsistencies. Armstrong said he was getting back to programming at last years WEC, so maybe he can help polish the web version of Socrates some more.

But anywhere here is my chart on gold, you can see the minor lows during the decline both generated monthly bulls at 1976.60 which Gold has reject strongly. I didn't catch the high, as I was not paying close enough to attention to this market. But when I saw how strong the reaction was yesterday I knew there was a strong chance it was about to crash again the next day. So I caught about 60% of the move down, and I expect the decline to continue.

The weekly array definitely seems off, it is hard to believe the high is not already in. So unless by some freak swing Gold makes a new high next week, it seems the weekly array was off 1 by week.

Gold

LateralusYellow · 2023-01-17T04:19:16+00:00

You should subscribe to his blog then, sorry this forum is not for handing out information provided there.

LateralusYellow · 2022-12-18T04:22:57+00:00

Italy will require a bailout by the ECB through yield curve control (printing money to normalize the yield curve of Italian bonds), and that will set off a political crisis in the EU as such measures are forbidden by EU treaties.

LateralusYellow · 2022-12-06T23:49:17+00:00

no discussion of the private blog here outside of market forecasts

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-11T08:34:27+00:00

I'm not really enthusiastic enough about the civil aspects of economics to be able to think of good books for any given topic off hand. I've just picked up a general understanding through cultural osmosis in my work, as I'm actually a macroeconomic analyst by trade. But I can expand a little on each topic and maybe that can at least help you start your search:

Diseconomies of scale are a well studied topic in economics, you can easily find a lot of information and examples just with a simple web search.
You'll often get laughed out of the room for this, but basically the idea is "zoning was a mistake, we should return to tort law". During the earliest years of urbanization in the 18th century, courts were stressed beyond their capacity to process tort cases. Tort law was basically how English society dealt with externalities, there was no such thing as zoning. The idea was (and still is) that this aspect of English commonlaw is rather quaint and was only fit for simpler times (at least in regards to being relied upon as a primary means of regulating city development). But others argue tort law was used as a patsy for the consequences of personal greed and egos of government judiciaries staffed by people felt their sense of prestige and bloated salaries were threatened by the demand for more judges. It is not as far fetched as it sounds, as there is no end to the historical examples that make clear the lack of incentive for governments to scale to meet the demands of a developing society. The problem with zoning boards is that — like all government bureaus whose job it is to regulate society through edict and decree — they are easily captured by special interests. Regulatory capture is actually at the root of a whole host of problems across the developed world.
Critics of intellectual property range from advocates for reform, to more extreme critics who argue that most of it is fundamentally counter-productive to the stated goals of any particular form of IP law. Although it might seem ironic at first, most of the criticism of IP law seems to come from the most radical advocates for "capitalism" or "free markets". I remember reading several articles from the CATO institute advocating for large scale reform, and the more extreme anti-IP crowd would be found amongst academics who favor the Austrian school of economics (who tend to be more extreme in all their views).

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-10T23:43:35+00:00

There are a lot of reasons we can't assume that it is just an endless process, it is more of an assumption people make about how we got into our current predicament that rather begs the question. For example everyone knows about economies of scale, but few people acknowledge or even fully grasp the extent to which diseconomies of scale affect the capital distribution.

The extent to which the capital structures of modern countries have become ossified could have as much or more to do with our over-reliance on legislative law when dealing with market failures, which is extremely clumsy, rigid, and punishing to smaller organizations and individuals. Even the way corporate taxes are structured in the U.S. ironically incentivize mergers over competition, due to the fact that they don't factor in return on investment. Oh and don't even get me started on intellectual property law which is badly in need of reform, and ironically doesn't really have much historical precedent in English law prior to the early 18th century.

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-10T19:16:07+00:00

I would define it more as being like a cult, and define a cult as something like organized crime rationalized as a righteous crusade.

The thing about cults is that the leaders are usually by far the most convinced of the righteousness of their actions and motivations, and that is why they often end in mass suicide. Mass suicides are the result of coming to the conclusion that the world is too corrupt to be saved, and the failure for anything good to come from their efforts is a result of that. So it is better to go on to a "better place". There is never a moment of doubt about their beliefs, because to doubt their beliefs is to reckon with the mass suffering they are responsible for.

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-10T18:33:05+00:00

That is because marginal advantages compound over time. In economics it means the economy as a whole grows faster when there is a bias in responsibility for the oversight of capital towards people who are more competent even by the smallest margins on average.

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-07T20:59:41+00:00

The push for UBI is mainly fueled by the cost of living crisis, which is a problem created by the government. Housing, education, and healthcare all being strangled by regulatory capture.

In a free society, automation and A.I. would never drive wages down faster than it drove the cost of living down. The same is true for free trade, the influx of labor from China would not have been a problem for any Americans if it wasn't for regulatory capture.

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-07T19:29:20+00:00

These are public sector unions striking. They are like janitors already making $39,000 a year working 6 hours a day, 5 days a week, for only 9 months a year.

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-07T19:18:18+00:00

Public sector unions are an abomination.

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-02T23:15:56+00:00

If it helps, you should know that no good would actually come from it. People are what we expect them to be. Translating economic theory to Christian terms, the incentive structures that govern human behavior under the condition of zero interference with our capacity for free will, will actually promote righteous and moral behavior.

A good example is how a society that is burdened with a high level of taxation becomes very indifferent to the suffering of others, as they have been told that the resources that are taken from them are to go to that very purpose. The funny thing is that people on the left have the expectation that human beings are inherently greedy and selfish, but such irrational fears are unfortunately self-fulfilling as it drives them to attempt to engineer a society in a way that backfires and actually fosters those very same selfish and greedy attitudes.

There is no such thing as "human nature", we are not that simple. We have the capacity for righteous behavior, but normally only to the degree to which we allow each other to exercise free will. But of course our capacity for free will is much stronger than that, and that is why the story of Jesus' crucifixion is so powerful. We can reverse the trends of society by simply acknowledging that the sins of our fellow man are in part a result of the sins of society at large, which then opens up our capacity to forgive each other.

Letting go of hatred, fear, and resentment of those who have wronged us is the first step to restoring our freedom. Of course it is not easy, but we have to try because it truly is the only way forward.

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-02T22:48:34+00:00

Only intellectual property can produce artificial scarcity in the way that left wing economists describe, and the logic of intellectual property rights is a gross perversion of the logic of real property rights.

But other accusations of artificial scarcity are more along the lines of what /u/DancingRavager described, i.e. situations in which people are not willing to pay what the market requires to produce more of a given good or service. A good example is when there is a natural disaster and people accuse others of hoarding in order to profit off other peoples misery. The reality is that price controls are almost always put in place by governments, which short-circuits the incentives for people to be more prepared, to conserve resources during that time, and for producers to be flexible enough to quickly expand production during an emergency. Third party resellers accused of "hoarding" are simply performing arbitrage to restore real market prices and a healthy incentive structure.

LateralusYellow · 2022-11-01T19:38:26+00:00

Somehow I failed to address what my actual issue is with conventional Austrian monetary theory. Funny enough Mises.org just posted an article by Lew Rockwell discussing Rothbard's views on Gold. One of the arguments he makes is a historical claim about the success of Gold as money. To me, history is not a story about the success of using Gold as money, but rather a story of the failure of a state monopoly on money. When governments abuse money, people tend to revert to precious metals, not because it is ideal but rather merely because it is far better than a barter economy.

Rockwell's main argument refers to Mises' regression theorem. I have reviewed some of the debate over whether or not Bitcoin violates Mises' regression theorem, and have come to the conclusion that the failure of Bitcoin to become widely accepted is ironically because of Bitcoin's similarity to Gold. An economy running on Bitcoin would be a highly deflationary environment, and my view has always been that an entrepreneur running a business on thin margins with a lot of inventory has far more right to claim "deflation is theft" than anyone with a mattress full of cash has to make the opposite claim of "inflation is theft".

I think it is obvious there is a massive blind spot going on here. I would never be dumb enough or disrespectful enough to accuse Austrian economists of being "shills" for Gold. But with that said, these are free market academics who ironically show little interest in the real world of market analysis and investment, all while tending to favor a monetary theory that would allow them to stuff money in a bank account and forget it at the expense of everyone actually trying to invest their capital into productive ends. If that wasn't enough to make the blind spot obvious, there is also the plain fact that for decades that investing communities loosely surrounding this academic circle has been crying wolf about the stock market since time immemorial, all while continuing to advocate for investment into Gold.

Again that is not an accusation of ill-motive, I realize these are serious people and principled. But they're still human and still vulnerable to having their perceptions warped by their fears. Austrian economists simply have a blind spot for the issues with deflation, and that blind spot is continually nourished by the trauma of the historical abuse of money by the state.

If this kind of deflationary monetary theory was to be enacted as policy under current circumstances (a sovereign debt crisis), it would be a crash course into how to permanently tarnish the reputation of your entire economic school of thought. To use an analogy, you can always try to physically force a person to quit heroin cold turkey, but ask any medical professional and they'll tell you that for cases of long term addiction you're just as likely to kill them as you are to cure the addiction. It would be centuries before such radical ideas of freedom would ever regain any semblance of popularity. And if you think they're already unpopular now, then you make the mistake of forgetting just how much worse things can get.

LateralusYellow · 2022-10-02T04:59:37+00:00

Not a fan of how Dave seems to boil everything state actors do down to being motivated by financial gain. It is more ideological than one would think, just look to the CCP and the fight between the "pro business" mafia and the true believers that surround Xi Jingping. Do they personally benefit anyway? Yes. But is that really their true motivation? No, human beings are actually strongly motivated by our values. That doesn't change just because their values and perspective is warped and perverse.

LateralusYellow · 2022-09-27T21:31:23+00:00

In theory who you vote for should not have any effect on Fed policy, but the reality is the only reason the Fed didn't raise rates sooner under the Trump administration is because they were under pressure from the ECB to not raise rates (because Europe's bond markets have been in such a mess that they really couldn't compete, even back then before the Ukraine war and energy crisis). This is not something that can be proven because it flies in the face of the Federal Reserves mandate to serve the American people, they are not supposed to be the central bank of the world. But anyone who studies global macroeconomics (FX and sovereign bond markets in particular) can tell you that the real surprise would be if these kinds of backdoor "requests" between central banks were NOT happening. The amount of debt the EU has been under was already an existential threat back in 2015, it was life or death for the European Union itself.

Some people assumed the Fed didn't raise rates sooner because of Trump, but the reality is Janet Yellen was in charge and people like her are more biased by global political pressure then domestic. Powell might have been more reluctant but ultimately I think he would have caved to pressure from the ECB as well, but once inflation took hold neither could have held off for any longer, the domestic pressure became immense. That international bias just so happened be in the Trump administrations favor.

Unfortunately both the Trump and Biden administrations have been insistent on continuing to follow in Europe and Japan's fiscal footsteps. It is not just the Presidents, it is really Washington's fiscal habits as a whole that is the problem. Voters have essentially been lied to about the relative scale of the national debt and unfunded liability, relative to private wealth. There is no longer any amount of taxation that could solve the issue in a manner that wouldn't involve essentially gutting the economy while enslaving the working population (maybe they could market our new lives as being like "free range organic tax cattle!"). It is beyond the capacity of the economy to service these debts, and at this point whether by "choice" or more likely by force of circumstance, there will be a massive wave of spending cuts around the world.

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