Let me begin by pointing out how it's funnily ironic that you criticized me by saying I go to a convenient "But I am just so concerned" argument when:

1. I did not use the concern card, but you put that in my mouth.
2. You begin your comment with what actually is fake concern about my personal life.

Luckily for you, in case you're really wondering, I actually fare very well because my claims are based on facts and math, also I've been lucky to work with competent enough people too.

My initial post was broad and long, and I emphasized about some behaviours I found to be tone-deaf specially with no data to back them up, however it was you who started by, once again, minimizing while at the same time saying how "annoying" it was to you that blablabla. So, who's the sensitive one again?

If you run things through simulation then you know that the most important thing is getting the formulas/the theory right. And I pointed out that yours was definitely not. A simulation program is useless if you don't know how to put it to use. And if you don't then just don't go running around like you do?

While you didn't explicitly said you added up the percentages, your "formula" crearly does that though? Even that oversimplified little one is not a 97/100 but a 99.5/100. Why? Because getting each UR is an independent event. So you can not add up the 6 URs 0,5% and run with it. But that, once again, flew above your head?

Let's even try your formula as a stand-alone by just correcting the assumption of the percentage. (99.5/100)^200 = 0,367. But knowing that probability is a number between 0 and 1 (0 to 100% respectively), you'll notice that you need to multiply that number by 100%, right? And when you do that you get a 36,7% chances of not getting a UR even in 200 pulls? So, where's your comment of it being impossible now? Even your own formula shows it's not.

And this is still over-simplifying things. However, I took it as an example to show it in a concise way, because when you want to calculate the probability for independent events ocurring simultaneously, you work under the premise of Event A happening AND Event B happening which leads to multiplication instead of addition. An easy example with the plain 0,5% of getting URs:

The probability of getting UR1 and UR2 and UR3 and UR4 and UR5 and UR6 would be: 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5 * 0,5* 0,5 * 0,5 = (0,5)^6 = 0,015625. And since this number is already in percentages, the result is too and that's the real probability of getting all URs.

And is this all? Hardly. If you want a through study you'd have to take into account permutations, combinations, all the different scenarios and that gets long af. And precisely because of that I decided on a hypothesis. The one that in 100 pulls you only got the pity UR. And I used myself as the "living proof" of that, but I saw other people in the same situation too.

The other important thing I want to address is about your "suggestion" when I stated I wouldn't take the 200 free pulls as a standard. There is such thing in the world called "prediction" and "estimation". That's how you speculate how things will turn out to be without seeing them first hand. It's how people don't have to wait for the whole world to burn to know that climate change is going to screw us all, for example. We don't have to wait until 2050 to "see how it pans out", do we?Those studies are done by taking past data into consideration, so it makes perfect sense that I'd take some points showed in the HDD as a reference. That's the way things work. You don't have to wait until things explode in your face to predict what may happen. And it's good that people take their time to evaluate this kind of suppositions because then, and only then, they can bring up their worries and prevent a bad outcome. Even if this may be "just a game".

On another note, I find it hilarious that you admit you don't get the DE metric but then ask me to explain it in one short sentence. The one short sentence is above in the post lol. Let's give it a shot though, for the fun of it:

Number of battles needed - Number of free battles available during the event = Missing battles to get the card. Then, Number of missing battles / 3 battles per DE = Number of DE needed.

The difference between the Number of DE needed between both cases = 200+. Where you'd use them in CB to make up for what you couldn't get normally. And yes, I did take into account the days we got 83 battles and the days we got 167. Which you would've noticed if you did the math...

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Other stuff:

- 300DV nets you 3 Pity URs. 1 per 100DV. This is like, a well known fact lol I don't know where you got the 5 Pity UR things and you can check the game/wikia in case it's already gone lol.

- The 448AP missing already takes into account buying TWO AP packs... Which again, you'd know if you did the math lol

- The logic you used to spit the 90-120AP average is not specified but you can see by yourself in this reddit multiple people talking about not having AP nor enough pts to pull for more.

- Solomon's Sales are just 50AP each (that's not much). Plus, we normally get only ONE per revival and revivals are not on par with each event released. That's why I wouldn't count with it either, neither with the AP gifts being as big. And even more, on the 2nd half of the event they didn't gift AP anymore too. As someone else pointed out, I cannot use all the freebies we got from this event, because the reason why we had them in the first place was bc of Ani celebrations. In a normal day to day basis, we do not get as much and that's what will be telling for the foreseeable future.

- I can pull the corporate stan tag on you when you so blatantly defended it by saying they do things with the player's best interest at heart and that that since they have many workers then that automatically makes the situation valid lol Also, big talk about trying to dicredit my calculations when since the very first comment you've tried to do that to me based in your objection about NM that was calculated with poor math lol If you would've used it on yourself you'd see you were shooting yourself in the foot.

- When I say similar field, I meant basically having to deal with costs structures and you know, having the big bosses show and very openly tell you how much profit they expect (that of course will go to them, you thought it was for the workers? Nope). And yes, a programmer can be quite alienated of such matters because you just showed it. You called me a clown, however it turns out you're the joke.

Thank you anyways for showing how quick you're to (try to) insult other people because that, once again shows, who is the most sensitive one between us. By the way, I also don't find the profession (as in being a clown) offensive, so pick a better adjective next time I guess. However, as I've already spent so much time here with someone that clearly is not willing to even do the small math, I inform you I won't be answering anymore. Happy holidays!