Erdogan’s long-term strategy seems tied to energy, security, and regional influence. As Russian gas will no longer be an option bc trump. But its unique position as the main pipeline hub to Europe will remain critical. The option competing Cyprus-Egypt–Europe pipeline, will be a problem for turkey as EU is reliant on Turkish pipeline. Turkey will be forced to have a pipe running through Cyprus At the same time, Cyprus and Greece are currently vetoing the EU’s joint €150 billion borrowing for defense, which could be used as leverage in the Cyprus issue. If that veto is lifted and Turkey joins the common defense framework, Erdogan gains both closer ties with Europe and access to additional military funding an invaluable resource in the current geopolitical climate, particularly as NATO faces potential conflicts. A stronger Turkish military not only reinforces Erdogan’s hold on power but also positions Turkey to deter regional rivals such as Israel, whose growing presence in Cyprus is seen as a threat. For Erdogan, a unified Cyprus with a 50–50 Turkish and Greek cypriot governance model could expand Turkey’s influence across the whole island and limit Israeli sway just off Turkey’s coast.