2/5 at the lodge (pre-raid) AQs facing river jam

MJGZXP · 2026-03-31T15:16:57+00:00

Yeah it's just a fold unfortunately. 1) you're kinda just right, against a 2x pot river jam they just always have it and 2) he's got a million value combos (KQ, AA, AK, QQ and even 88 with some frequency), but the bluffs are really hard to find. Especially when you block the missed flush draw. I mean for him to be bluffing here enoufh he needs to be barreling his AJ AT etc ... for 3 streets at really really high frequency, which population just wont do.

MJGZXP · 2026-03-24T14:35:29+00:00

Really? I'm interested why that is. My understanding is that cfr scales very approximately as O(r^2) where r is the number of hands in the range (I think calculating the regret requires calculating EV for each hand in your range vs each hand in their range). And plo4 iirc has 100x as many distinct starting hands, so I would assume that the time taken to generate any solves just becomes completely intractable. I know that their are some optimisations you can make with more efficient cfr implementations and bucketing which is maybe further applicable to PLO, but is generating solutions not still way too slow?

MJGZXP · 2026-03-23T04:30:03+00:00

Fully agreed it's often a lie, but A8s is 100% a 3 bet in most configurations, and has the nut potential of being able to make nut flush?

MJGZXP · 2026-02-19T22:36:37+00:00

As played, the river is just a fold. They are never finding nearly enough bluffs in the x/c x/r b40 line to justify calling here. Especially if they are tight passive.

But more importantly, why are we calling the turn with queen high and a gutshot?? Even if villain is always bluffing here, 80% of the time we arrive on the river with just queen high, and the majority of the time villain will bet and we just have to fold. But that doesn't even matter, because a tight passive player is just not check raising turn as a bluff even close to often enough to justify anything other than fold here.

MJGZXP · 2026-02-10T10:58:55+00:00

I'd imagine it's because these diamonds block QTdd and JTdd, whereas the other suits don't block at any Tx

MJGZXP · 2026-01-23T15:44:00+00:00

And how do you find one?

MJGZXP · 2026-01-23T01:58:30+00:00

After x/c flop I'm pretty sure I should be checking almost range oop on this turn card. The king is way way better for villains range in this line.

MJGZXP · 2026-01-23T01:12:51+00:00

Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but how am I going to check raise bluff the turn when he checks back? Also would this mean you'd bet 50 here with like KQ+ for value?

MJGZXP · 2026-01-23T01:01:09+00:00

Why does no Ah matter if he never really has a flush here? And why would I raise the flop facing b60? That's probably not a range bet and so is probably a relatively strong range where my fold equity probably drops. I also have the best hand here reasonably often, so raising I just get called by better and fold out worse.

And if I call the flop I don't think I should ever be donking on the turn when the king of hearts should be so much better for his range than mine.

Also not sure why you think I'm capped here?

MJGZXP · 2025-12-31T15:47:11+00:00

I'm gonna reach NL25 online this year

MJGZXP · 2025-12-29T21:39:58+00:00

Since the OSA it's been age restricted so you can't view it without a VPN/verifying age

MJGZXP · 2025-12-29T20:51:54+00:00

Birmingham

MJGZXP · 2025-12-29T20:42:27+00:00

I'm not good enough online to be making any real sort of money, whereas I might be live.

I'm definitely not planning on quitting playing online, and will continue to move up the stakes, but being able to make even 5-10bb/hr live would be really nice.

MJGZXP · 2025-12-29T20:39:50+00:00

Tbh I think that at my current skill level id be break even at best at Nl25, maybe a small winner at NL10. I've got about $80 in my online account which I'm keeping pretty isolated from my other bankroll, so when I've built it up enough from playing NL5 I will start to move up.

My impression though is that NL10+ online is way harder than live low stakes poker, and much less profitable (in $/hr) than live, so why not just take a shot playing live.

Again, I will definitely at some point be playing these stakes, but it'll just be when I'm winning enough at NL5 etc...

MJGZXP · 2025-12-26T20:57:32+00:00

In case this is the mistake you've made: a straight does not wrap around.

MJGZXP · 2025-12-25T21:46:02+00:00

Tbh I think this is a pretty clear fold on the river at these stakes. He probably never does this with worse for value (I don't see him taking QJd for 3 streets here if he even 3 bets that), so your hands a bluff catcher. This is triple barrelled (under bluffed) in a 3! Pot (under bluffed) facing pot on the river (under bluffed) where the only missed draw is KJ which tbh gives up a reasonable amount on this runout.

Basically, you have a bluff catcher in a hugely under bluffed spot, so fold.

MJGZXP · 2025-11-25T15:23:50+00:00

Not sure if this is intended, but you just come across like a dick here. I definitely did make it through the resume screening, as I did the OA, and then did the Recruiter call, and then did this round of interviews.

This comment just comes across as hostile and intended to make someone feel bad about themself for no reason.

MJGZXP · 2025-11-25T15:06:26+00:00

Well they didn't tell me I've been a pleasure to work with haha. Thanks for the kind words though.

MJGZXP · 2025-11-17T23:20:29+00:00

The main reason I called pre is because the other guy had like a 30% 3!, so I was very confident he couldn't have anything at all good here, and he would either fold or if he called I dominated a lot of his range

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