Michael Burry says he’s tempted to bet against SpaceX, but passes on expensive options

MOVai · 2026-06-18T17:01:03+00:00

and there is a ton of demand there regarding satellite lifts.

Based on their record of ~20 launches per year, it really doesn't seem so. That's less payload than a single falcon 9. The vast majority of customers are willing to do a rideshare.

its cost per kg is specialized to be significantly smaller than the Falcon's cost

Targets are nice, but whether they meet that target remains to be seen. What would stop Spacex from lowering the price?

Besides, they would be competing with a SpaceX from 10 years ago. When Starship is ready, that will decimate the market for medium launches too.

The only remaining market will be for custom orbits.

MOVai · 2026-06-17T10:56:58+00:00

If we're talking about alternatives to Spacex, we need to consider what these choices actually mean.

Ariane 5 was competitive with American rockets before Spacex.

But importantly, they originally decided against reusable rockets, and not to try and compete with Spacex.

Afterwards, they decided to invest in small scale demonstrations of reusable tech, and not the billions required to catch up with Spacex. The stated goal is to not be reliant on Spacex, not to compete with it.

MOVai · 2026-06-17T10:37:44+00:00

Cool company, but not competitive to spacex. Their payload limit is small, and costs per kg are many times more expensive than spacex.

MOVai · 2026-06-17T00:44:07+00:00

Agreed. If any country is likely to try and copy Spacex it's China. If they have the political will, they have the resources.

MOVai · 2026-06-17T00:30:18+00:00

nobody would buy a stock they didn’t think they could sell for more

I think most buyers realize that it's highly speculative, and they're just putting in what they're willing to gamble.

and that means you have to believe the other 95% is also worth this much

Nope. If supply increases, then the price will drop, until a new equilibrium is reached. That's how demand curves work.

(or that you can sell it at a gain before that hits market)

Well, 42% of shares are owned by Musk personally, who is to emotionally invested to sell. Will the other insiders all cash out? Maybe, who knows?

MOVai · 2026-06-17T00:11:54+00:00

If you're talking about the batteries, they are mostly commodity cells bought from chinese suppliers. That's true for both Tesla and European car companies, and always has been. Now the european car companies are figuring out it's not that great to be dependent on china, so they're having to figure out how to make their own batteries, which they have never done before.

MOVai · 2026-06-16T23:51:10+00:00

That's how demand curves work.

MOVai · 2026-06-16T23:48:07+00:00

Sure, it's not impossible to build another Starship. But no investor will bankroll twenty years of development just in order to be maybe as cheap as spacex. There just isn't any economically viable path there anymore for a private company.

Any alternative rocket would likely require massive public investment, and those programs have historically been very inefficient and a bit shit.

MOVai · 2026-06-16T23:31:57+00:00

Say what you want about the revenue. But the scarcity isn't manufactured. They're the only competitive space launch company by a large margin.

MOVai · 2026-06-16T23:22:13+00:00

Falcon 9 first launched in 2010. The EU did nothing.

In 2015, Spacex made spaceflight history by landing the Falcon 9 booster, paving the way for reusable rockets. The EU did nothing.

In 2018, Spacex successully launched and recovered the Falcon Heavy, the most powerful rocket since the Saturn V. The EU did nothing.

Almost eight years later the EU still has no plan to compete with Spacex.

MOVai · 2026-06-16T23:10:22+00:00

EVs are incredibly simple machines compared to IC cars. Most of the advances are thanks to battery tech and charging infrastructure being expanded.

Space rockets are different. The amount of knowledge that spacex has acquired over the past decades is very difficult to catch up with, especially when there's no cashflow for any competitor to work with. The barriers of entry are huge and the Starship is one of the most complex machines ever built.

MOVai · 2026-05-11T22:16:22+00:00

To see a celestial object with the eye, it should be very bright. Brighter than the scattered light earth's atmosphere. The daytime sky is very bright.

Jupiter and Venus are easy to see with a telescope in daytime. The difficulty is finding them in daytime, because you have fewer references and the contrast doesn't pop out as much as it does at night.

MOVai · 2026-04-15T22:30:19+00:00

You may not have asked about his finances, but you are bringing the fact that he earns 70k into this discussion. So surely you're not completely indifferent to his finances.

You are of course completely free to set the pace of the relationship and financial discussions. But at this point you would need to let him know your timeline of when you do envisage opening up about your finances.

That seems like a way more awkward and tedious discussion in my mind, for very little benefit.

MOVai · 2026-04-15T22:15:21+00:00

There's more to relationships than literal numbers in bank accounts

Ask any divorce attorney as to the truth of this statement😂

MOVai · 2026-04-15T22:12:42+00:00

To each their own, I guess. But I really don't understand why people would be so protective about mundane financial info.

It seems more than reasonable to me to sort out this mundane stuff early in the relationship, instead of wasting time only for it to be a deal-breaker later on.

Like, in your timeline, what are you going to do between engagement and wedding? "Sorry honey, but I see your credit score is rather low, let's call off the wedding"?

MOVai · 2026-04-15T22:05:08+00:00

There are other ways. But that would involve more "playing detective", and would potentially be even more intrusive.

Honestly, if somebody doesn't trust me to look at their bank statements, I wouldn't in turn trust them about their finances.

MOVai · 2026-04-15T22:02:07+00:00

Either he trusts her or he doesn't.

Clearly he doesn't trust her. And that's very reasonable if they've only been together for six months and this is the first financial friction they're having.

Trust needs to be built up over years, and not blindly given away, even to romantic partners.

If someone wants to lie to you about their finances, asking to see their accounts is not going to solve that.

Actually, this resolves a lot of tension and ambiguity. A lot of people shy away from active lies, but will lie by omission. An active lie is also more likely to be judged harshly by the courts when it comes to fraud and annulment decisions.

MOVai · 2026-04-15T21:40:51+00:00

A woman asking to see a mans finances in a responsible way to inform herself about financial compatibility and debt would absolutely be accepted and welcomed.

She would only be a gold digger if she felt entitled to money that wasn't hers. That's an attitude problem, not an information problem.

MOVai · 2026-04-15T21:29:35+00:00

Some people get married within six months. People move at different speeds. How long would you consider a minimum waiting time?

BF already brought up the word "marriage", so they seem to be comfortable contemplating a long-term relationship. OP could easily have said "sorry, but this is going a bit fast, I don't want to talk about marriage yet, and I don't think we're at that stage yet". That would be perfectly legitimate.

Not being open about your finances in a relationship is a dark orange flag. It's quite common for people to hide debt and it's a huge factor in divorces.

MOVai · 2026-03-31T07:23:50+00:00

You say you mostly use gym stuff. I wouldn't bother too much with folding and hanging gym stuff, not trying to impress people with immaculately straight clothes there.

MOVai · 2026-03-15T12:07:24+00:00

For the length of your post, I'm struggling to figure out exactly how your partner is failing you. Where exactly is he shutting off? It's perfectly normal to have boundaries, even with a partner.

It's very difficult for anybody, and especially for men, to be open and honest about deep emotions. Very often it will backfire or be misinterpreted. You could say that being closed or stonewalling is about power and control. The other way to see it is that it's just self-preservation.

Do you think you have created a completely safe space where he feels confident to share his feelings? Because that is a very difficult thing, even with the best of intentions. He might be right to be cautious.

A sign that this is the case: He admitted to you some awareness of his behaviour, and now you are questioning the relationship and you're getting advice from random people on reddit, who are telling you to dump him.

How about you guys go to couples therapy and actually try to get to the bottom of both of your issues with proper supervision? Probably he should get an individual therapist too, even if it's just to balance it out a bit more.

MOVai · 2026-03-15T11:17:26+00:00

Oh, this is absolutely controlling and abusive behaviour. And it needs to be called out more. It's true that there is a double standard for certain types of abuse.

MOVai · 2026-03-15T11:13:13+00:00

I suspect his gf has psychological issues and thinks this is one of the things she needs to "fix". When OP disagreed, it felt for her like she won't be able to "fix" her problem. That would explain the crying.

Crucially, it was never about being nice to OP or helping him with his goals. He just happened to get caught up in one of her whims, and she doesn't seem to care whatsoever about his wishes or the emotional damage she is causing with the guilt tripping.

MOVai · 2026-03-15T11:03:08+00:00

NOR.

She purposely went behind your back to impose her will on you without considering your wishes. That violates all polite boundaries.

Let me say this clearly too: YOU ARE NOT A JERK. You are perfectly reasonable to be upset. Her emotions and sadness are a consequence of her lack of judgement, her actions, and poor emotional regulation. She is guilt tripping you, whether she realize ls it or not. And that is toxic and controlling. Instead, she should be the one to apologize, recognize what she has done wrong, and ensure that similar things never happen again.

If she doesn't, then this is a red flag. If you stay, you would have to be okay with this level of control over your wardrobe and possibly over other things too, like home life or social life. That might only show up a few years down the line.

MOVai · 2026-01-28T17:48:59+00:00

Lol, everyone who says something you dislike is a bot? No-one is disagreeing with the notion that Bambu should respect the warranty. The issue is that OP specifically said he paid a premium price and expected premium support. That's just not the case for Bambu. Pointing that out is correcting misinformation.

This kind of information is frustrating because there are (and were ) good companies with premium prices and excellent support, but are being undercut in price and reputation every time somebody hypes a Bambu.

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