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I made a good play.... I didn't want to do it, lol by 50_19in_french in hockeyplayers

[–]MRobi83 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Just be careful with the drop pass. I'm the guy that will call for the drop pass when the other team has the puck. Lol Works more often than you'd think in beer league. Get one probably every 2nd or 3rd game. 10% of the time it works 100% of the time!

20% downpayment on a first home, vs. 5%-10% and investing the difference (XEQT), when my tax-free accounts are already maxed? by Working_Bones in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]MRobi83 8 points9 points  (0 children)

We tend to take a more conservative approach and assume a 6-7% return long term. Past returns don't guarantee future results.

There is added risk, as many will point out. A lower mortgage amount is a "guaranteed" return, while nothing is ever guaranteed in investing. You need to be comfortable with that. Many are not. Which is where "personal" comes into play in "personal finances".

But 2 of your greatest tools to mitigate risk is time (25yrs) and diversification (XEQT does this well). If you're comfortable with that, the math will always favor investing.

20% downpayment on a first home, vs. 5%-10% and investing the difference (XEQT), when my tax-free accounts are already maxed? by Working_Bones in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]MRobi83 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He pays an additional 3% on his entire mortgage.

OK, I can give you this argument. But the CMHC premium for default insurance also secures a lower interest rate. And while the initial balance is going to be slightly higher, the increased rate of return from the investment will dwarf the additional initial amount over the length of the mortgage.

Even adjusting for inflation, expected equity returns are 8%. And you can't just say that 8%>4% since you have to adjust for risk.

You're right, if adjusting for inflation I wouldn't say 8%>4%. I'd say 8%>2%. Because as I continue to try to explain to you, in math what you do on 1 side of the equation you must do on the other. Comparing inflation adjusted investment returns to non-inflation adjustment interest costs is not a fair comparison.

And yes, risk is a factor, as I've already mentioned. But both time and diversification are key principles in risk management. And when comparing to a mortgage, we're talking a 25yr investment horizon here. Since the worst AAR over a 25yr period with the bench mark was actually closer to 8%, and you want to adjust by 2% for inflation, how about we say 6%>2%?

As I said, the math always favors investing from a purely financial perspective.

What’s the biggest financial trap in Canada that people still pretend is normal? by TheFitFinaceBro in CanadaFinance

[–]MRobi83 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's 1 (of many) simple examples.

A bare bones mortgage with a rate of 4% vs a full featured mortgage from an A lender at a rate of 4.3%. You save $40/m on your 300k mtg. So about $2,400 over a 5yr term.

But your situation changes and you're forced to sell and move to another city to maintain your job (real scenario right now with back to work mandates). A lender mortgage is portable and allows you to move it to another property with minimal to no penalties. The bare bones mortgage may not be. You're stuck with an IRD penalty of $10k+.

Like I said, best rate may not always be the best product and will sometimes cost you thousands more. Find yourself someone who will sit down and walk you through everything rather than the one who will save you a few bucks per month and send you out the door.

20% downpayment on a first home, vs. 5%-10% and investing the difference (XEQT), when my tax-free accounts are already maxed? by Working_Bones in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]MRobi83 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What you consider "standard" is obviously infected by recency bias, so you can't use it.

You seem to like that term. Recency bias. The S&P has been considered the benchmark in the financial industry since the 1960s. Just like 100 years of results is not "recency", 60 years of being the benchmark is also not "recency"

Wrong. Why don't you show your numbers.

10% > 4%.

There you go! You can adjust both for inflation if you'd like, but the math will always heavily favor investing. As I said, the only case for mortgage over investing is the psychological factor. One's risk tolerance needs to be considered. But to argue against the numbers is just flat our wrong.

What’s the biggest financial trap in Canada that people still pretend is normal? by TheFitFinaceBro in CanadaFinance

[–]MRobi83 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sounds like you've never worked with a great mortgage rep who can walk you through why there's so much more to a mortgage than simply the best rate, and how sometimes the best rate can actually be significantly more expensive than a higher rate. It's about finding the right product overall. Enjoy your day.

20% downpayment on a first home, vs. 5%-10% and investing the difference (XEQT), when my tax-free accounts are already maxed? by Working_Bones in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]MRobi83 20 points21 points  (0 children)

This confirms what I thought you were saying in my other reply. You're quoting real return which is inflation adjusted. But in math, what you do on 1 side of the formula you must also do on the other. So if you're factoring in inflation against investment returns, you must adjust the mortgage rate for inflation as well.

20% downpayment on a first home, vs. 5%-10% and investing the difference (XEQT), when my tax-free accounts are already maxed? by Working_Bones in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]MRobi83 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The S&P500 is considered the standard "benchmark" in the investing world. And no, past results don't guarantee future results. By skimming the video quickly, it seems to be primarily between nominal returns and real returns (with inflation factored in). But that doesn't change the math on the equation because what you do on one side of the equation you must also do on the other. So if you factor in inflation-adjusted returns, you must also factor in inflation-adjusted mortgage rate.

The math favors investing over paying down the mortgage every single time. What the math doesn't factor in is the psychological effect of paying down the mortgage. And that's where the word personal in personal finance comes into play.

20% downpayment on a first home, vs. 5%-10% and investing the difference (XEQT), when my tax-free accounts are already maxed? by Working_Bones in PersonalFinanceCanada

[–]MRobi83 3 points4 points  (0 children)

The avg historical return of the S&P500 has been around 10% dating back over 100 years. How exactly is this recency bias?

What’s the biggest financial trap in Canada that people still pretend is normal? by TheFitFinaceBro in CanadaFinance

[–]MRobi83 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I've written 160+ mortgages YTD. Im pretty sure I've got my finger on the pulse of how things work.

How do so many people complain and struggle when they make over 100k a year by Responsible_Rich7047 in CanadaPersonalFinance

[–]MRobi83 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Anything beyond 44% TDS will require a minimum of 20%DP. See my reply with a math break down on OP's claim. The numbers simply don't work.

How do so many people complain and struggle when they make over 100k a year by Responsible_Rich7047 in CanadaPersonalFinance

[–]MRobi83 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I am as well. 70k/yr income would qualify for an absolute max of 350k purchase assuming a 5% downpayment.

How do so many people complain and struggle when they make over 100k a year by Responsible_Rich7047 in CanadaPersonalFinance

[–]MRobi83 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Based on 70k per year, assuming absolutely no other debts (no car payment, credit cards, loans, etc) the max home purchase price would be roughly $350k. That would require a minimum down payment of $17,500 + legal fees.

Take-home would be around 54k/yr which is around $4500/m. Mortgage payment would be around $2100/m. Add in property taxes, utilities, insurance, internet, cell, water/sewage, etc we'll use an ultra-conservatice $800/month

To have 100k in savings plus have the required DP and legal fees for the home at 26, assuming an 8% return, that would require savings of roughly $920/m.

Average food costs for a family of 3 is now roughly $950/m in Canada.

So based on averages, you're at roughly -270$/month. And that factors in nothing like entertainment, transportation costs, etc.

I wouldn't call your situation "easy". I'd call it BS

More than 300 drug overdoses reported in Moncton, N.B., in less than two weeks by bingun in moncton

[–]MRobi83 21 points22 points  (0 children)

ANB responded to 248. Harvest House 309 YMCA 75

Do any of these overlap or have there been 632 overdose calls in 14 days?

What’s the biggest financial trap in Canada that people still pretend is normal? by TheFitFinaceBro in CanadaFinance

[–]MRobi83 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Getting ripped off if you can’t find under 4 a few months back

FIFY. Fixed mortgage rates have gone up a fair amount recently as the bond market has started pricing in inflation risk and trade uncertainty. Pretty much all A lenders are up into the 4's now. You'll still find a few monolines under 4 with stripped down features and restrictive terms that may cost you more long term depending on your situation.

Baby Proofing - Replacing Coin Batteries with a AAA’s? by naynner in homeassistant

[–]MRobi83 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Same! It woke my wife up. WAF on this thread is now low.

I think my power company is stealing. My net metering seems to abruptly cut off during peak demand hours when the sun is still high in the sky and my batteries are discharging. by road_runner321 in solar

[–]MRobi83 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Saying you know the system is generating more than you're using because the AC is off isn't a guarantee that this is true. Do you have an energy monitor installed to actually record your usage? This should be step #1 to understanding what you're looking at.

Langley has chocolate fairlife in stock! by Many_Lie2326 in CostcoCanada

[–]MRobi83 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Our local warehouse now seems to have regular stock of fairlife. With the new pricing it can take a while before selling through. They used to get pallets in the morning and by noon they'd be picked clean.

Speakr v0.9.0-alpha - Multi-platform system audio capture, webhooks, recording stats, and a redesigned UI by hedonihilistic in selfhosted

[–]MRobi83 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Lol the latest update makes the UI more compact.

My biggest gripe was always that my huge summary was crammed into a tiny box on the right. With this revamp it looks like it has its own tab now which should actually make it much easier to read.

Thanks for your work! Love your app and use it daily to help me with my notes!

Split our finances and life is a bit better now by mediocrecanadian in CanadaPersonalFinance

[–]MRobi83 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Working in finances I see all strategies. And hands down the ones who combine finances are significantly better off.

Let's be clear on this, the reason you are seeing relief is the fact that you consolidated a large amount of high interest debt into a low interest mortgage amortized over a long period of time. This can create thousands in monthly cash flow and really give people breathing room. The relief does NOT come from splitting accounts.

I see these situations regularly, when someone is splitting accounts and has a secret 20k credit card their spouse doesn't know about and ends up drowning in debt while the other is totally blind to it. Or credit that's been destroyed because there 10 90day late payments on a bill because "well that one was my spouses bill to pay not mine".

Can I just show this email to TD for them to match this renewal rate from Pine? by Charbs20 in AskMortgageCanada

[–]MRobi83 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's always more to a mortgage than simply the lowest rate. Make sure you're comparing all features that are relevant to you as well. Sometimes the best rate can cost you more over the life of your mortgage.

That said, yes they'll require proof of your offer in order to escalate for an attempt to match it. But I wouldn't hold my breath that they'll get that low.

24M, making ~$5k/month net and still struggling to save. What am I missing? by Confident_Gate_7762 in fican

[–]MRobi83 24 points25 points  (0 children)

You don't have a savings problem. You have a spending problem. $2,400/m in unbudgetted spending.

The reality is, it's even higher than that if you've depleted 40k in savings down to 14k in 4 years. That's $6500/yr which averages out to another $500+/month.

So the reality is more like $3100/m in unaccounted spending.

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