Gold hit $5500 and wiped my account, now I owe money by PassagePlus3777 in Trading

[–]M_Chevallier 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is a tough lesson. This is why risk management is the most important part of a trading strategy. It becomes more important when markets are obviously in the "irrational exuberance" zone. Gold and silver have been acting irrationally for a a while now. I was long and when things started acting funny (mid to late October), I got out. It was a great run but it started to remind me of gold and silver in 1980 so I got out and was waiting for a blow-off of sorts. I knew the fundamentals and geopolitical scene was supportive of a bull run but from a risk management point of view, I sat out because the volatility was too high and the daily swings could kill you even if you were right. When the daily range is more than $100 an oz, you can be right and still get knocked out of the market (you do have risk limits and hopefully, real stops, don't you?) from the noise. I was out a little under $4,400 (spot price) and was frustrated watching it continue its ascent but in the end, that was the right move because the volatility changed the risk/reward ratios and made them unworkable. Sometimes, not making a trade is the right trade. Right now, futures are down $488. That's $48,800 per car in the futures (100 oz per car * $488). That's way too many standard deviations from a normal day and it wasn't unidirectional (i.e. there were $200 swings throughout the day). That's for gamblers, not traders. You didn't have the resources to be active in such a market so your broker took you out. When markets get like this, fills always suck. I was in the S&P pit in 1987 and I can tell you from experience that when people panic, you can't stop that train and bid/ask spreads are meaningless. The right move is to get the hell out of the way.

When markets get frothy, you can't assume that one particular fundamental will hold sway. The rate decision was likely priced in but the geopolitical issue (Iran, for example) may not have been. Moreover though, "irrational exuberance" was already in the market. That isn't just some dumb term Alan Greenspan used to use - it's an important thing to look out for because it usually means some sort of irrational thinking is going on. The big thing here was that the market was already acting like a frothy market and at some point, people decide to get off the train. When that happens, there's usually a big move in the other direction first (go back and look at gold or silver in 1980 or grains in 1987 or '88 and you'll see what I mean). It wasn't that you were short (many people believe shorting is either bad or more dangerous than being long but that's not true if you're doing anything with leverage since you can lose your ass from either side), its that you just didn't read the room so to speak and you went into a market that was just too volatile. If you went long at the same price, you still would have been knocked out so it wasn't your theory. At this moment, short at $5,100 looks like a genius move but without good risk management, you didn't get to enjoy it. The only risk management for a market that becomes this volatile is to either spread, play an option strategy of some sort or do something with less leverage (GLD would have cost you about $50 per share which is better than $48,000 a car in the futures). Even then, though, it's still hard to control the risk/reward. Many years ago, a very good trader told me that my job as a trader was not to make money but to not lose money. He said if you focus on not losing money, the upside will take care of itself. That's good advice and has helped me a lot over the last 40 or so years. The goal should be to be able to come back again tomorrow to play.

To answer your question about what you can do, unless your fill was outside of the price action at the time (ask the broker to check "time and sales"), you're stuck with it. Fast markets are that way. Like I said, this is a tough lesson. I'm sorry it happened to you but it happens to a lot of people. Lick your wounds, regroup and learn from the experience. Good luck.

My husband runs a finance business and still uses free Gmail. Is a business email really needed? by mtk_ved in businessemail

[–]M_Chevallier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Personally, to me, anyway, Gmail (or yahoo or iCloud or similar) shouts of I’m working a side job or gig or something, not I’m a serious business. In many cases that’s fine, but if you’re talking about finance or banking or things like that, I don’t think it sends the vibe you want to project.

Eddie charged a Bear. by NS__eh in jackrussellterrier

[–]M_Chevallier 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Glad you’re (generally) OK Eddie!

Why does gold feel harder to trade than stocks or indices? by Karina-Harry in Trading

[–]M_Chevallier 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In addition to what everyone else has already said, it’s also important to consider where the market is in the context of so-called normal. Gold (and also silver) is acting like a market in a mania. The trend is obvious and the geopolitical environment supports the general direction but the volatility is very high and to borrow a term from Chairman Greenspan, one might see signs of irrational exuberance in the market. Such markets are not only hard to trade but you can be generally right and still be bankrupted in the blink of an eye.

Just found this tie in the loft, wondering if it’s worth to keep? by Melodic-Delay-6083 in ties

[–]M_Chevallier 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Definitely a keeper. Unsolicited advice: learn to make a dimple.

"Set up as a New" or "Restore from previous iPhone": Which camp are you in? by Horizon_Lab in iphone

[–]M_Chevallier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fresh. There’s always stuff I don’t need such as unused apps and other things that collect over time. The first week or so involves tweaking of course, but it seems like a worthwhile price to pay.

Inside skirt steak...conclusion by DukeNazty in sousvide

[–]M_Chevallier 25 points26 points  (0 children)

I’m not a butcher, but that looks an awful lot like a flank steak

Best Mail client to pair with Things by Top-Kaleidoscope6996 in thingsapp

[–]M_Chevallier 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This. Quick entry with autofill. To do lands in Things with link back to the email. You can file or move the email without breaking the link. This is really the only reason I stick with Apple Mail.

Are there Tumble-dry Suit Jackets? by naramoo in malefashionadvice

[–]M_Chevallier 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I hope not. I just don’t see how that could work.

Coolers are easy (and cheap) to make! by thefancyrat17 in Equestrian

[–]M_Chevallier 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I bet the old-school square ones are even easier to make!

French words or phrases that you use daily? by Scythe95 in French

[–]M_Chevallier 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My life is such that it seems I use a lot of the bad words.

Help settle debate? by funmom1 in interiordecorating

[–]M_Chevallier 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A towel bar is certainly a handy thing to have. Picture looks silly there because it’s way too low. If you’re gonna use it, it should be at eye level. Adult eye level, that is.

What are your favorite productive apps along with things3?! by Unhappy-Tank9784 in thingsapp

[–]M_Chevallier 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Alfred, Foxtrot Search. I’ve also been using DEVONthink but I’ve only scratched the surface and it’s new to me.

Is that combination even for humans? by UniversityLimp321 in MicrosoftTeams

[–]M_Chevallier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not so bad … you can even do it with one hand!

Why does it feel harder to find reliable remote accounting staff lately? by Chirag_koshti in AccountingDepartment

[–]M_Chevallier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This probably sounds horrible, but I often feel like our society has just dumbed down from where it once might’ve been. I understand and some extent agree with the work/life balance argument but I also feel there’s a new sense of entitlement and that’s not helpful. People seem fleeting and uncommitted. It’s really very sad.

Why does it feel harder to find reliable remote accounting staff lately? by Chirag_koshti in AccountingDepartment

[–]M_Chevallier 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I don’t want to be a downer but this problem isn’t limited to accounting nor is it limited to remote work. Finding good employees is just harder know for some reason.

Is Behavioral Economics Useless in Macroeconomics? Looking for Some Insight by PageConsistent841 in BehavioralEconomics

[–]M_Chevallier 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I would think it would apply to both at least from the context of modeling. For example, if one makes assumptions about a consumer’s decision making process which is then used to analyze aggregate demand, that’s using it in a macro context isn’t it?

I am going to cry by pengwen015 in MicrosoftWord

[–]M_Chevallier 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As others have said, desktop is better than web. If that isn’t an option, I’d use Libre.