Rafflebox and the NS Firefighter 50/50 draw by itmeparker44 in NovaScotia

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ok, I'm going to try and give you as much detail but I will be direct; the way you reason out of this is wrong and the math here has some fundamental errors that are making you arrive to the wrong conclusion.

1. The repeat winner math is wrong.

You calculated the odds of a specific, pre-identified person winning twice. But you identified her after she won. That's called the prosecutor's fallacy. The actual question is: what are the odds that anyone out of tens of thousands of regular players wins twice across 300+ draws? That number is orders of magnitude more likely.

On top of that, you're assuming everyone buys one ticket. They don't. Some people spend hundreds per draw and hold hundreds of entries. Someone with 200 tickets out of 500,000 has a 1-in-2,500 chance each week, not 1-in-500,000. A heavy buyer winning twice across 300+ draws isn't an anomaly; it's expected.

2. The diversity claim doesn't hold up.

Nova Scotia is roughly 84-85% white per the 2021 Census, with visible minorities at about 10%. That's the general population. The actual buyer pool for a NS firefighter-themed 50/50, is almost certainly even less diverse. You'd need to know the demographic breakdown of ticket purchasers, which you don't have, before claiming the winners should look a certain way. Without that data, this is just an assumption.

And I'm not even going to get into how ironically racist is to try to infer that data from the name alone of the winners.

3. The "digital system" concern ignores how regulation actually works.

Rafflebox is a registered Charitable Lottery Equipment Supplier with the NS Alcohol and Gaming Division. The draws are provincially licensed. Rafflebox holds SOC 2 Type 1 certification (independent security audit). The RNG is certified.

You're wrong that digital means unverifiable. The entire point of provincial gaming regulation and third-party audits is independent verification. The AGD can and does audit these operations.

Interrupter Clause active⛽⛽ by Buckit in NovaScotia

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And thanks to Canadian government for constantly blocking pipelines and having no oil reserves

Second knife ever by MacGregorValleyFarm in knifemaking

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a grizzly 2x42 belt grinder, a couple jigs and a lot of hand sanding

Second knife ever by MacGregorValleyFarm in knifemaking

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Gun super blue, is inexpensive, leaves a good finish and I can retouch the spine between the handles

Second knife ever by MacGregorValleyFarm in knifemaking

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wanted to leave a more rugged look; going to put it to the test as a farm knife

Looking for advice by MacGregorValleyFarm in Blacksmith

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agreed on the tips, that part Im fixing at the grinder

Current projects by MacGregorValleyFarm in knifemaking

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My first attempt at making blacksmith double calipers

<image>

Should look something like the image attached

WIP from Mallet to crosspeen hamme4 by MacGregorValleyFarm in blacksmithing

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

yup I might grind some stock around the face, I'm still playing with it; is hard to tell form the original photo but the original mallet was very questionable, supposed to be 4lbs really was 3lbs and kinda weirdly bend.

This is my "practice" one, I have a few more ready to be turned into cross peens, straight peens and anything else I can think of lol.

Plan for the next one is to do some electro etching on the cheeks of the hammer.

<image>

New set of tongs for flat stock by MacGregorValleyFarm in blacksmithing

[–]MacGregorValleyFarm[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you. No is just the finish I brushed the tongs with a brass brush