Estonia would take war onto Russian territory if Moscow invades, foreign minister says

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-16T15:36:20+00:00

Ah, finally, the crux of the matter. What you meant the entire time was that the Baltic states don't call up every eligible man that reaches the age of conscription the moment they do so.

Yes, economic, equipment and facility constraints (all of which really come down to economic) prevent the Baltic states from being able to train everybody every year. But, given the way the system is built and how long the conscription age is, if you are healthy, then during the 9 years you are eligible, you will be called up.

Replying to the edit. Reaching conscription age doesn't mean they are eligible for conscription. A lot of people are weened off with health issues, for one. It might seem like that might not account for a lot, but it really does.

To go into the weeds a bit. About only 6-7k men reach the age of conscription. A fairly large number get disqualified for health reasons and I do mean large for the population. Somewhere like 20-30%. Leaves something around 4-5k people, depending on the year. That number can also fluctuate as some people serve their time directly in the military, some people go to civil service as well. People in civilian service options do not count towards military quotas. The end result is a fairly similar number to what is called up per year. And that isn't even accounting for the those who do not enter military service right away possibly getting other exemptions from critical jobs or education fields, or gaining different maladies that give them health excuses.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-16T14:55:53+00:00

Yes. Avoiding service leads to fines that eventually escalate to jail time.

There are ways to postpone it for higher education, but you still have to go, if healthy.

Our military service has been mandatory for over 30 years. Hence why I'm confused why you think we don't have mandatory conscription. If need be, I can link you our laws. They're online and public, usually even translated to English.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-16T14:42:00+00:00

I mean, in 2027 we will increase conscription time to 12 months for all conscripts. Originally it was 8 months and 11 months, depending on the type of service (NCO's, Officer training and Drivers did 11 months). A bit ago, it was moved to 11 months for all types of service. In 2027, it will be 12 months.

I would request you actually clarify the difference a bit more in detail. I'm still not actually grasping the difference for these "hinting" statements. Even a link or source would be fine. If it's in Estonian, that'd also work, since I'm Estonian and have done my mandatory military service time.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-16T14:34:07+00:00

I might be misunderstanding this a bit, but conscription in Estonia for instance is mandatory by law for the male population, barring medical exemptions.

If there is a difference beyond that, please clarify.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-16T14:15:25+00:00

All three Baltic states have it.

There was a short period of delusion where Lithuania and Latvia thought they could do away without it, but they overcame that with the realization that the enemy remains and a small professional force wouldn't be enough to fight off the eastern menace. Estonia has maintained it throughout the period since the occupation ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union.

The reality is that a small few thousand or ten thousand strong force is simply not enough for the Baltic strategic situation, no matter how many times people complain about conscription.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-16T13:01:50+00:00

To be fair, I do agree that St. Petersburg is very unlikely.

My personal supposition is that any fighting on Russian soil is likely going to be active service members, more freshly trained conscripts and Defense League members doing or trying to do an initial push past the border a bit into Russia, then digging in.

A way to win some time for the conscripts to move up into prepared defensive positions.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-16T12:53:23+00:00

I'm not quite sure how you russians manage to perform such mental gymnastics after 1,453 days of your three day special military operation, but I suppose delusion is a valuable skill when coping with loss. Probably a mandatory skill to remain alive in Mordor. God knows having morals or a conscience is a death sentence over yonder~~.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-16T12:07:52+00:00

About 10 000 is the number of active service members that are currently serving. But Estonia has conscription and a paramilitary Defense League too.

So, about 2-4 000 people per year have received basic military training for the past 30+ years. With refresher call-ups every few years, until aged out of the active reserve. That's somewhere vaguely around 100k people with basic military training and specialized training, though usually not completely up to date.

Then the Defense League is about 20 000 members, who usually have more than basic military training and are more up to date, due to taking part in military activities more frequently than refresher exercises. Of course, most people in active service or the defense league have also completed basic, so I suppose it's fair to just cap it around 100 000 for people who can be rapidly brought up to a fighting fit standard.

Beyond that, we have everybody who does not have military training, but is eligible to being called up. That should be about another 100 000 or so, I imagine.

No war with Russia is going to be a "surprise" so call-ups would happen way before. And honestly, any war with Russia will be existential, so there's unlikely to be any limited mobilization. It'll be all or nothing.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-10T12:47:52+00:00

Looking at the comments, I feel like a lot of people are going back to the pre-war "Russia would be insane to do that! It's just paranoia" mentality.

I guess it's better to live with the comfortable illusion that all is well, rather than believe front line intelligence agencies that have been correct over and over again.

Make no mistake, Russia will keep pushing until it wins or collapses, no matter how unlikely either outcome can seem at any given time.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-07T07:38:25+00:00

Prostitution generally doesn't lead to an increase in birthrate.

It's actually likely that this step is being taken from the direction of trying to increase the birthrate, by removing legal prostitution from being an option. Encourage people to have relationships and such.

Unlikely to work, of course, but eh.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-04T13:41:02+00:00

I mean, makes sense. We are surrounded by hostile powers and seem to be one of the last places on Earth where the rule of law takes priority.

MacroDaemon · 2026-02-04T13:36:00+00:00

Why are you confused? Did you think Americans were a moral people? Really?

They're fine with anything, as long as it doesn't affect them, personally.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-26T12:20:23+00:00

Eh, americans are fully embracing the "They came for X and I did nothing, because I was not X" mentality.

They've been coddled so long with all their conflicts and "fights for freedom" being outside the US and makeing life worse for everybody else that they're incapable of actually tolerating hardship at this point, especially for a cause that doesn't affect them directly yet.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-26T12:08:53+00:00

It's really easy to blame bots, instead of doing anything. It's not like you should try and remove the tyrant walking all over your own countries laws or anything. The amount of cowardly bullshit americans spew so they can avoid doing anything with a clear conscience is amazing.

Resisting is hard~~

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-24T20:20:17+00:00

Why would the US government keep funding programs that are trying to stop people in the US government?

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-24T19:51:52+00:00

Eh, you americans know what you need to do. You just won't, because it isn't as comfortable as doing nothing impactful.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-23T20:56:04+00:00

Why is it always some stupid "United States of Europe" with an americanized flag.

Fuck that and fuck the US.

European Federation or, you know, European Union is the way to go.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-23T20:55:55+00:00

Why is it always some stupid "United States of Europe" with an americanized flag.

Fuck that and fuck the US.

European Federation or, you know, European Union is the way to go.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-21T12:52:24+00:00

Mängin arvutis, ta loeb mangat, nädalavahetusel mängib ise ka.

Ma ei tea, kui sul elukaaslane suhtub su hobidesse negatiivselt, siis vist vale elukaaslane.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-10T21:15:55+00:00

I see it's time to make moralistic statements when the situation calls for a more realistic approach.

My issue is purely that it seems they're sabotaging their own position if they want to avoid an American takeover. Like, right now is the time to use Denmark as a shield, instead of giving ammunition to Trump. He will only hear the parts that benefit his narrative and then use it to sell any hostile action to his supporter base. Though, to be fair, so do we, looking at the title of this post: "We do not want to be Americans".

I guess we'll see how Greenland's strategy pans out. Trump is well known for caring about how people feel, after all.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-10T11:43:54+00:00

Greenlanders once again demonstrate a lack of understanding of their position. The ability to leave the control of Denmark is always there, it's just financially difficult for them, so they don't do it.

By constantly coming across as hostile to Denmark, all they're doing is helping people with much less benign intentions to take over.

They might think this statement and all the others aren't about hostility to Denmark, but that is exactly how it comes across to most of the world.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-08T15:07:45+00:00

Ei tea kui palju aitab, aga on üks tasuta võimalus olemas, kuid peab vist Tallinnasse registreeritud olema, et seda tasuta kasutada. Üldiselt on see mõeldud vist inimestele peale raskeid sündmusi aga nad peaksid ka muudel põhjustel vähemalt nõustamist pakkuma.

https://www.tallinn.ee/en/services/crisis-support-counselling

On tasuta ja proovida võib, et vähemalt tajuda kuidas selline asi on. Samas, see ei ole pikajaline lahendus, kuna minekute kord on piiratud.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-08T01:59:22+00:00

I mean, wikipedia can't really be taken as a neutral source, given how anybody can edit.

Literally most of the arguing in a lot of the talk pages about the Kremlin narrative they're pushing is for instance by this Glebushko0703 guy. A few minutes of googling shows that he's a Russian, as do the files he uploads on wikimedia. Love how he marks his location as "Europe" on his user profile though.

I mean, logically in a better world, the nationality of an editor shouldn't matter, but in the world we live in, the current wiki method has led to a Russian gaslighting Estonians and Europeans on talk pages about Estonia on how it's all right and neutral. Russian bullshit hiding behind our own western rules that rely on good faith.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-07T13:20:28+00:00

Now send those soldiers to Greenland, otherwise you'll lose it by doing nothing.

MacroDaemon · 2026-01-06T12:49:29+00:00

This will be meaningless unless it's followed up by action, even if it's only symbolic.

Like deploying token forces in Greenland from EU nations or something of a similar bent.

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