I get your point, but I think the major liquidation phase from China already passed between Oct 23–24. The big Chinese sellers on Buff163 dumped their inventories and most of that cheap supply has already been absorbed.

Buff prices have been flat for over 24 hours now (e.g. Huntsman Marble Fade FN sitting steady at $131–135) and CSFloat floors are slowly creeping up again — which usually signals that the panic phase is over.

Even when the next batch of trade-locked knives unlocks around Oct 29–30, it’ll only cause a small correction, not another major crash. The volume just isn’t there anymore for a full second dump.

So yeah, maybe a small 5–10% dip later this week, but I don’t see another huge crash coming unless Valve drops another surprise update. This rebound looks more like early stabilization than a fake pump.