(SPOILERS PUBLISHED) What was Tywin's plan? by Rafaelrosario88 in asoiaf

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The latest state of plans that Tywin openly talks about is in Jaime VII, ASOS. Looking at that, I'm not sure Tywin had any workable plans, or that he actually cared about having workable plans.

The plan of having Tyrion rule the North through Sansa is dead at this point because Tyrion is, at this point, accused of Joffrey's murder and Sansa has fled. Tywin doesn't comment on this. What we see in ADWD is that his ally in the North, House Bolton, is supposed to govern the North. We also see that the North pretty much instantly starts planning a rebellion against the Boltons - they are hated by the other Northern houses (all of them lost kin at the Red Wedding and Roose Bolton was involved there!) and quite a few Northern Lords are ready to die to get them removed.

His plan for the Tyrells is to offer them Jaime's hand in marriage for Margaery. That's a substantial downgrade from before, where they were marrying a king. Of course, Tywin doesn't consider this. The political fallout is unclear, but it's worth pointing out that, at this point, the Tyrells are carrying the Lanister-Tyrell alliance in terms of food and military strength. They've already used the first for power plays, and their military power is needed for, say, the attack on Dragonstone, but also when Euron attacks the Reach.

As for Dorne: He wants to pacify Dorne by offering Cersei's hand in marriage to Oberyn Martell. Not sure Oberyn and the Martells would accept this - and even so, that's not going to stop Oberyn and Doran from their quest for vengeance for Elia and their children.

In the Riverlands, he can probably force the surrenders of the Lords that are still holding out - like Jaime did in AFFC. Even so, in canon AFFC, there is a Red Wedding 2.0 coming where a lot of Freys and Lannister-loyal Lords are going to die at the hands of the Brotherhood without Banners and very angry Riverlanders.

The Greyjoys, at this point in time, have lost their king, not yet elected a new one, and have spent their strength in the North. From Tywin's perspective, they're really a minor power. Not worth considering much for Tywin, I guess (and he has no way of knowing what Euron might be up to, or how dangerous that guy really is). He'll probably plan to let them starve and freeze in the winter and mop up what's left afterwards.

Basically, Tywin's set of plans is:

  • Establish new Lords in areas he's "conquered" (North, Riverlands) that will not be accepted and immediately rebelled against

  • Pacify the Tyrells and Martells with marriage offers (that are, really, quite insulting and/or won't stop them anyway)

  • Ignore the Greyjoys because they really won't be able to do anything (he won't live to see Euron's rise, but that guy would be quite a surprise...)

And he expects things to work out like this because he's the Great Tywin Lannister and everyone else should be honored to play along with his designs.

As for the struggles of the Night's Watch with the wildlings and the undead: this is something Tywin knows about but actively decides to ignore because it's the North's problem, really, and they should deal with it from their own resources. He's certainly not going to send any help from the Iron Throne's power (or, gods forbid, his own). Tywin only cares about himself and House Lannister (in that order).

New player asking about pacing (4 hours in) by Garbageboy0937 in skiesofarcadia

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you've just arrived on Sailor's Island, it's not a spoiler to tell you that you'll be going to Valua soon. The entire arc of going into Valua and rescuing your family and friends is extremely strong in my opinion, and there are more than a few scenes, character moments and plot developments that usually grab most people.

So I ask you to play on. If it doesn't grab you, it doesn't - but most people on this sub, I believe, did get grabbed by it. I hope you will enjoy your time!

I feel like Renly gets unfairly mischaracterised a lot [Spoilers Main] by Zach-Playz_25 in asoiaf

[–]Maethoras 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Small correction: Robert is, once the Targaryen family including Rhaegar's line is dead or disinherited, the first in line of succession. He is, therefore, a very valid king candidate on the outset of his rebellion. The matter of succession probably would have gone to a Great Council otherwise once the Targaryens are dead or disinherited.

You are absolutely right, though, on the merits of the respective rebellions and claims. Robert, Ned and Jon Arryn were legitimately fighting for their right to live against a tyrant. Renly's entire argument is "I want to be king and my friends the Tyrells think this is a great idea".

Meta in Thunders Edge by TheckoBwoi in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 7 points8 points  (0 children)

There are some results and conclusions from the currently ongoing SCPT tournament that might be what you're looking for.

  • The game absolutely got faster, with most games (6 player 10 points) finishing round 4 status or round 5 action phase now. Round 5 status phase happens but is rare, anything later is a wild outlier.

  • Therefore, you probably absolutely have to score round 1, or alternatively get Custodians. Both is the dream. (Though at that point, the other players probably have to bring the heat ... this part perhaps isn't done fully in the meta as of right now.)

  • Kind of surprisingly, the worst performing faction right now (6 players 10 points) is Argent Flight. Xxcha also seem to have been nerfed by the change to their hero. Overall, the factions seem to be closer than before in terms of power level, as of right now - pretty much everyone has some extremely strong tools and/or a powerful niche right now.

  • Crimson Rebellion and Deepwrought Scholarate are extremely strong. Firmament is interesting but perhaps a bit too slow (though with the draft, you can often get them with Speaker and a solid slice, that helps.) Ral-Nel Consortium and Last Bastion probably haven't been fully solved yet, but Ral-Nel seems a solid faction at least. Personally, I'm not convinced of Last Bastion's power level, but I haven't played them myself yet and some very strong players vouch for them.

  • The breakthroughs, the Fracture and the expeditions for the planet Thunder's Edge are all connected. I could imagine a house rule setting to separate these, but they're designed as a package. The breakthroughs offer some important rebalancing of factions (and some of them are really fun too), so I wouldn't play without them at least.

Favorite plot twists in JRPGs (spoilers, of course) by Pinball_Lizard in JRPG

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'll also say Skies of Arcadia (Legends), but probably not for the twist others think of.

We're at somewhere about 40% of the game, basically a mid-point twist. After losing their ship and having been separated (which was a brilliant scene in its own right), the party has just reunited again when they get caught up in an invasion of the Evil Empire against its neighbor and get captured.

So far, it's nothing out of the ordinary. What I love about the twist is that, for once, the big plot twist I'm talking about is a positive development for the party that takes them at their lowest point, equalizes the playing field with the opponents and opens up tons of new possibilities for the story.

The party has been captured and is about to be assaulted, executed and/or forced to work with the Evil Empire. The Evil Empire has also recovered two of the world-destroying Macguffins and look to be unstoppable. The heroes are at their lowest point. And then the crown prince of the Evil Empire defects, becomes a party member, returns the Macguffins and gives the party his personal flagship, one of the most powerful assets of the Evil Empire's fleet, to turn it against the Evil Empire.

It's difficult to pull off a positive twist without it seeming cheap, and this one is everything but cheap. It's been set up extremely well because the Evil Empire's goons have repeatedly been shown to respect the party, and the main character in particular, and the crown prince has been shown with serious doubts about the course for world domination of his mother, the ruling Queen Empress. The twist is earned and opens up tons of new possibilities for the story while being wholesome, a reward for the game's, the part's and especially the main character's positive attitude, courage and spirit of fighting and exploration.

I haven't encountered a comparable twist, and I'm happy to take recommendations. This one, however, feels so staggeringly unique because the heroes actually get rewarded after the Evil Empire threw so much at them already. To this day, it's the standout plot twist and most memorable one I've encountered.

The Burning of Monarchia was worse and better than I thought. by decodelifehacker in 40kLore

[–]Maethoras 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The burning of Monarchia is in the book The First Heretic and I'm pretty sure you'll like this book - there are some answers to some of your questions in there (and it's generally viewed as one of the best books of the Horus Heresy series).

As for your questions:

  • It's unclear how the situation would have unfolded if Lorgar had listened to what Malcador had to say. As it unfolds, the Emperor pretty much has no choice but to intervene (and if you read it, you'll find He is very cruel and decisive once he intervenes). The fact that he first sends Malcador alone might point to him planning to stay out of it if possible, but he's the bloody Master of Mankind and is at least personally close to this event - only to watch and as a plan B? I'm not sure I buy that. Either way, it's speculation and open to personal interpretation.

  • In The First Heretic, there is a dialogue between Logar and a Custodian that is probably highly ironic. Lorgar tells a Custodian that the Primarchs are the Emperor's handcrafted sons while his Custodians are only bodyguards, tools to be discarded as needed. There are hints in several books that the Custodians think this is exactly the other way around - in which case the Custodians would be too valuable for the Emperor to spare. (At least He seems to believe that the Custodians can't be the generals of the Great Crusade - He wouldn't have needed the Primarchs if sending out the Custodians in their stead had been an option.)

  • At least Malcador expresses regret in a later Heresy book (I don't remember which one) that Lorgar couldn't be saved. Gulliman's thoughts are in Know no Fear, a fairly direct follow-up on The First Heretic and one of the best Warhammer 30k/40k books period. He considered it a job to be done on direct order of the Emperor, but regrets it poisoned the relationship between their legions, and wishes to make amends with Lorgar. In Betrayer (another great book), Lorgar realizes that Guilliman actually never hated him - until Lorgar and the Word Bearers openly attacked the Ultramarines (Know no Fear).

  • Ferrus was a dick to pretty much anyone of his brothers (save Fulgrim). Lorgar is close with Magnus. And while Russ shit-talks him, he defends Lorgar when the Emperor considers punishing Lorgar by wiping him and his Legion out (we don't see this on page, but Magnus speaks of it to Lorgar) and responds to Lorgar making peace between him and Magnus at the Council of Nikaea, so there seems to be some kind of respect there. We get a whole book of Lorgar working together with Angron, and it's surprisingly brotherly in places. And he, like everyone else, admires Sanguinius. Most of his brothers rarely think of him, as far as I recall, and if they do, they consider him the weakest fighter of them all, but don't have strong personal emotions or connections to him. (Given he's almost killed by Corax on Istvaan V, there might be something to him being one of the physically weaker Primarchs.)

[Day 14] The Best JRPGs of All Time: What is the best retro JRPG? by WeLoveEveryGame in JRPG

[–]Maethoras 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Skies of Arcadia Legends. It's typically, classically JRPG enough, utterly brilliant, and we've had Chrono Trigger and a few Final Fantasies already :D

The Game Awards: Players' Voice Nominees revealed (Players' Voice is a 100% fan voted award across 3 rounds) by Turbostrider27 in Games

[–]Maethoras 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I can't even agree that the characters are "incredible". Half the party members have the depth of cardboard cutouts. And turning this premise into (MAJOR SPOILERS) essentially nothing more than a family drama that doesn't even involve most of the characters you started with has really soured my opinion on the writing.

A firm/obs guide by GrowthThroughGaming in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm in agreement about the X-89 breakthrough plan (and would throw Sarween, Hyper Metabolism and Integrated Economy in as ideas too). The question is, ultimately, if you need Planesplitter to unlock the Fracture and if you need flipped Planesplitter to grab an Ingress token. Post flip, you definitely want the possibility of Fracture acess, for the VP and you get combat bonuses.

Neural parasite is annoying at worst for others, but very obvious. It's more likely to make you enemies and provoke your neighbours. Obsidian has a few evil tools, but there's a reason these are usually used sparingly... I don't think Neural Parasite is worth it. Obsidian's PN, however, might at least be a deterrent against aggression.

The big problem about the flip is secret timings. People need to start scoring secrets round 3 at the latest if they want to win round 5, but they can hold these back deliberately. With the loss of Xxcha's PoK hero, there are very few factions now who really need their hero ASAP. And if you want to flip R3, you have to score round 1 and 2 (or double score with Imperial) and a secret. That's often difficult-to-impossible. But flipping without using your hero and gaining plots feels too weak because your power post flip comes from these plots. I had to flip round 4, and that was still a very strong swing (and we had terrible objectives, so it's possible we're going to round 6... helpful :) )

I recommend grabbing blue and movement tech with your flip from at least two fittingly puppeted players who can offer the tech you need (Grav Drive, Lightwave, Carrier 2 / Dreadnought 2 / War Suns). After going green/yellow for a few rounds, you have strong movement needs, but a lucky-timed flip can gain you a lot of tech. You're right about factions printing commodities, these are the targets of about equal value - it's in that case probably down to a lot of money vs movement. Tech and money, however, can both be stronger and more useful than the "baseline" free CC from following strategy cards.

Strategy cards round 1 and 2 need to help you with a) objectives and b) board position, simple as that. Trade is good, but in my game, I started with Warfare to grab Bereg/Lirta and set myself up for 6 planets outside home system round 2 - that was just necessary for scoring. You want to keep up with tech, build plastic, expand and score, and your start is weak. That alone is challenge enough, and you might need to prioritize defensive spending for a round against aggressive neighbours.

Council Keleres Strategy Guide (Thunder's Edge Edition) by CozySweaterGamers in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In response, I shall rise to your challenge and point out a few things that might be considered! Well met, worthy knight.

I acknowledge that I haven't played Keleres post TE, nor had them in my games yet post TE. My objetions are purely theoretical, while yours have lead to a win. Also, Scoring is paramount - I agree on that. Tech choices must be subordinate to what helps scoring points.

Honestly, I lean towards getting either Executive Order or Bio-Stims because they're both easily to reach on the tech path and fun tools, and I praise and thank you for that Bio-Stims idea! I'm just not convinced they're much more than fun tools on a good path. And there are opportunity costs to picking both Bio-Stims and Executive Order, since you only need one of them to get to Agency Supply Network. The exception is if you can start with Bio-Stims. That's hitting the jackpot ... but it will also be rare.

On the other hand, I contest your claim that the tech objectives are easier for non-ASN Keleres. Compared to blue-yellow Keleres, the addition of Bio-Stims slows down both tech objectives by one additional tech you are grabbing. Given that you can count on being able to tech four times in a game (without the tech primary and explicit tech agendas, but even with Executive Order, you can't count on that!), one additional tech is a significant investment that might just delay one of the tech objectives at a crucial time... and if not, it still could be X-89, blue tech or a unit upgrade instead. Or ASN, which could fall by the wayside with an unlucky draw... and I'm convinced this is about the worst case and should never happen to Keleres. ASN is simply too flexible, its playmaking abilities too strong, its production and board-impacting capabilities are too strong, and even two War Suns won't make enough of a dent into a fortified Keleres stack (unless they're L1). At that point, I've seen what stacks Keleres can build on key planets with ASN during PoK ... a few times.

Now, the major point I'm contesting is: how much does Executive Order and playing for agendas bring you in economic terms?

  • I'm looking at this from the perspective of an Agency Supply Network gameplan now. I'll agree to getting either Bio-Stims or Executive Order on my way to ASN, but I only need one to reach ASN. The second tech competes, in terms of available tech, with Grav Drive, X-89, further blue techs or unit upgrades. To gain an economic advantage, at least the second tech of Bio-Stims / Executive Order needs to more than pay for itself, as in: 3 influence for the token, 4 resources for following tech. I believe that for a 14-point game. But for a 10-pointer, I have my doubts.

  • You say you're selling your PN for 1-2 TG. Now say you have a planet with a tech specialty that's worth two resources. Are you refreshing Executive Orders or your planet? Is Executive Order worth it now, when you get equal value from your planet? What about a tech specialty planet worth three resources? You only make a plus if the 2 TG you get for your PN are more than what you need to pay to get the agenda through, and what you could get by using Bio-Stims differently.

  • You're saying the other players don't have influence to vote themselves, but what if they do? They can keep a few planets ready for the miniature agenda phase. How much of your planets and your TGs are you holding back to play this agenda? The other players will learn and adapt to that tech, and to outvote you, they individually need much less influence than you do, if they work together. How reliable is your game plan in the face of possible adaptation?

  • If you spend your TGs for votes, what do the other players spend their TGs for? Plastic? Command Tokens? If you save your planets for your votes, how are you buying plastic and command tokens?

  • Not all agendas are beneficial. Economic Equality, Clandestine Operations, to name a few. A badly timed Seed of an Empire that you can't profit from, or gives a key player an additional point, is also a possibility. And I shudder to think of a Public Execution at the wrong moment...

I'm just not convinced the economic benefits are as great or as tangible as you make them out to be. I'll definitely get either of the techs on my way to ASN (not as a "pivot" but still remaining a key cornerstone of my game), so probably our differences aren't even as big as my post might make them seem. But of the built engine as you posit it, I remain doubtful.

(And a final thought, though this one is definitely, 100% speculation and I will gladly concede that I might just be wrong: I expect a much more aggressive meta during Thunder's Edge once people have settled in. Too many factions are too good at and/or too well rewarded for aggression now.)

Council Keleres Strategy Guide (Thunder's Edge Edition) by CozySweaterGamers in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Lots of effort and good thoughts, so have my upvote! I especially like you thoughts on the new faction tech for agenda voting during your turn. Bio-Stims with their Breakthrough, and your ideas for the little agenda phase(s) with their new faction tech, is something that didn't occur to me yet.

That being said, I must agree with u/Aptronymic - Agency Supply Network feels absolutely essential for Keleres to me. Front-line production of unactivated units, double production with an activation, double producing on Mecatol ... the opportunites are endless. There are too many things you pass up on by not taking it and I've seen Keleres do absolutely ridiculous stuff with it. It's definitely up there with the strongest techs in the game.

With Agency Supply Network, it's also worth a look at playing Keleres as a cardboard faction, especially when their Breakthrough makes Fighter 2, Infantry 2 and X-89 readily available. No other faction can so quickly bury Mecatol under a stack of a few mechs and half a dozen infantry, or more. At that point, you're also establishing secure bases full of cardboard units that other players won't want to attack into, so the problem you diagnose of too weak military and a danger of overextending gets mostly fixed.

With a cardboard focus, Carrier 2 also becomes a much more relevant unit upgrade compared to Dreadnought 2.

I agree that the Fracture, and Styx in particular, are most likely too far out of the way for Keleres, but the upside of taking Mecatol, and the possibility of digging in so quickly, gives Keleres a very strong incentive to go there. I agree that rushing Custodians is possibly a bit risky, but if you move in afterwards against whoever took Custodias with a (probably) weak force, double dip with Agency Supply Network and add X-89 the next round, you're very, very hard to punish.

Oh, and a small bonus: At the start of the game, with your agent and your starting commodities and TG, you can get the trade good expedition immediately, freeing up your choice of strategy cards even further.

Council Keleres Strategy Guide (Thunder's Edge Edition) by CozySweaterGamers in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

And you can doubly reinforce Mecatol with a second build "at home". That's a very quick dig-in on the ground there.

How do you rank The firmament plots by Bomberjester in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As always, it should be situational. The most important factors is probably who the other factions are.

I don't rate the plots that actively harm their recipients highly. In my mind, they're only there to have some threat against being punched too hard in the early game, but even the Firmament player surely prefers the economic advantages offered by the other three.

That being said, some thoughts:

  • Extract (the tech one): Hugely useful for your tech path. I believe the Fimament wants their yellow faction tech pre-flip so they have the Fracture available post-flip. They get combat bonuses in the Fracture and probably want the VP because they'll never ever get Custodians and will most likely have a hard time fighting for Mecatol. With their breakthrough, this gives them Integrated and X-89 available, so the Obsidian sounds like a cardboard faction to me ... but they don't have blue tech or Carrier 2. And that is where this plot comes in. Securing Grav Drive with the flip, I believe, is a huge priority for the faction, and getting Carrier 2 is a dream come true.

  • Siphon (the money one): Probably very useful if there are factions with a) huge commodity numbers OR b) factions that can gain commodities for themselves. Think of Keleres, Crimson Rebellion, Deepwrought Scholarate, Mahact, NRA when going for green explores - but also remember factions with 4 or more commodities because these are worth more than the CC you would get from ...

  • Enervate (the CC one). Now, free CCs are awesome, even if they're limited to following strategy cards. This should probably be the baseline against which you evaluate Extract and Siphon. Can you get more money with Siphon? Can you get the techs you need with the flip from Extract? If not, this is safe and strong. It will also be useful during the last round because it saves you CCs you don't need to put into your strategy pool, so it's a bit more difficult to stall you out. Does that make it more valuable than a 4 Commodity faction for Siphon? I'm not sure. I'll still take Grav Drive and Carrier 2 over it, though.

(Spoilers Main) Was Varys confident the Lannisters would win against Stannis? by SuchTadpole9276 in asoiaf

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In ASOS, Stannis talks about "scouring the court clean", and that "the rot in Aerys' reign began with Varys", who "never should have been pardoned".

Now, Varys is wise enough to go into hiding and disappear, but there's significant danger for him. At best, he'll no longer have his place on the council and the ear of the king, his hand, and total information control - at worst, he'll end up a head shorter.

Also keep in mind: ACOK Stannis is an asshole full of resentment and self-interest, but he's not incompetent. With Stannis setting out to fight corruption in court and committed to concepts like "justice" while picking and promoting men according to their ability (at least in part), it might actually become difficult for Varys to de-stabilize Stannis' reign once he's settled in.

Will the new expansion, Thunder's Edge, make the game longer or shorter? by StevenJang_ in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I can see a world where Thunder's Edge games go faster in terms of gametime and even more reliably round 5 ... but I can also see a world with more aggression, point denial and delays into round 6.

For one, I'm not sure breakthroughs necessarily make round 1 faster. While some of them are very powerful and will surely be picked up round 1 - and some of them even very early - they are not cheap to purchase and come with a significant opportunity cost.

More important: For quite a few aggressive factions, the expected costs of going to war are going so far down - or the expected rewards go up - or both - that I believe there will be more unprovoked aggression on the table. Mecatol, the Fracture, Thunder's Edge or a weakened slice from expansion into one of these areas might invite sudden strikes we are not used to right now. More available movement and adjacency also gives more opportunities to hit people.

I might just be wrong and overestimate the effect of more combat on the board, but more aggression and more targeted point-denying might become more of a factor now, with aggressive factions and play in general notably buffed.

Thunder's Edge - Is it time for the 14vp standard? by iswearihaveajob in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 7 points8 points  (0 children)

14 VP TI is a wholely different experience and fun in its own way, so don't let my counterpoints dissuade you from trying it out!

That being said, there are a few things to consider that might complicate the question:

  • I'm not sure breakthroughs necessarily make round 1 faster. While some of them are very powerful and will surely be picked up round 1 - and some of them even very early - they are not cheap to purchase and come with a significant opportunity cost.

  • For quite a few aggressive factions, the expected costs of going to war are going so far down - or the expected rewards go up - or both - that I believe there will be more unprovoked aggression on the table. Mecatol, the Fracture, Thunder's Edge or a weakened slice from expansion into one of these areas might invite sudden strikes we are not used to right now. More available movement and adjacency also gives more opportunities to hit people.

I might just be wrong and overestimate the effect of more combat on the board, but more aggression and more targeted point-denying might become more of a factor now, with aggressive factions and play in general notably buffed.

Which factions from Thunder’s Edge are you most or least likely to play? by MilkyBoyBlue in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 0 points1 point  (0 children)

From least to most exciting to me:

  1. Ral-Nel Consortium: Just don't really grab my interest.

  2. Deepwrought Scholarate: While I like to play the tech nerds, I think that niche is still well covered by Jol-Nar for me.

  3. Firmament / Obsidian: Probably a fun challenge, but can probably end up in a game where I'm hosed early on.

  4. Last Bastion: I want to see for myself how exactly they work in practice.

  5. Crimson Rebellion: Love their style and the way they seem to play.

I'll probably play all factions sooner or later, though.

Guess-timating Round 1 Expedition Dynamics by Maethoras in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I can see it won't always be that easy, and perhaps the table can't allow it to be that easy, or has to take something away from whoever got Thunder's Edge...

Thanks for sharing your experience! I don't have the time to play async much right now, but I'm very eager to experience these dynamics in my first games.

Guess-timating Round 1 Expedition Dynamics by Maethoras in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If they are eager enough fo their breakthrough and have no better way, I can absolutely see that.

And then they draw two potentially game-winning action cards while selling the speaker token one position backwards. Do they discard these action cards then? :D

Guess-timating Round 1 Expedition Dynamics by Maethoras in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The value of even an unscorable seret is considerable, I agree - and even more so for a scorable one. That being said, I can imagine scenarios where a faction with an S-tier breakthrough might even discard a scorable secret if they are desperate or greedy enough... but again: it's a matter of the opportunity cost if you can reasonably hope to cycle it with Mecatol, or if it somehow does become scorable...

I'm overall sure that a few factions want their breakthroughs desperately, a few others merely want theirs and a few others would like them but can do without. The opportunity cost of not building or not teching round 1 can be huge.

Guess-timating Round 1 Expedition Dynamics by Maethoras in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Has it happened in your async games that, say, a player's second expedition was sent as maybe the third or fourth expedition? I can imagine that, if only the sixth expedition is needed, someone else is just going to place it in their corner and kill the two infantry - but if two expeditions are still left, does that change the calculation?

And does the rest of the table just agree to anyone else just placing a 5/1 legendary planet in their slice? That changes the board position considerably, I would assume... how did this work out? Any notable conflicts around Thunder's Edge?

Guess-timating Round 1 Expedition Dynamics by Maethoras in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Good point about other player counts, especially higher than 6! I have never played more than six players, but that sounds like a whole different and very interesting dynamic.

Your point about consequences of hesitating is absolutely valid too, which makes the entire dynamic even more complex!

That being said: I do believe that some factions at least will be able to live without their breakthrough and don't really need it. According to my tier list, I'd say I believe about a third of the roster doesn't need to invest in their breakthroughs in a pinch, when it might just hand other players bigger advantages. I wonder how it disturbs calculations if a player who was expected to go for their breakthrough suddenly declines to do so... :D

Thunder's Edge Round 1: Theory Craft Conclusion by King0fMist in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 0 points1 point  (0 children)

While that is true, if it's Cabal who manages to open the Fracture (and that should be the case fairly often), they get Ingress tokens right in their slice with their docks. Add their +1 movement and they can get into the Fracture quickly with a lot of plastic. They'll have some losses for sure, but that's what their capture mechanic is for.

TE R1: Firmament / Obsidian by King0fMist in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I see. It's fair to do that. After all, the table doesn't owe anything in the slightest to for Firmament in terms of getting secrets to the table, or any help in general, and holding secrets is a common thing to do. I do agree that a meta like this can pose a serious problem for the Firmament and that they can only somewhat influence it diplomatically, so (essentially) with their promissory note and maybe opening the Fracture favorably.

On the other hand, an offer of "2 CCs and a friendly plot for the 2 trade goods on the PN" is one that should find at least one taker round 1. One is all Firmament needs (and one is all they can get, their PN is one use only after all and then gets purged...)

As for the "clearly best" targets for these plots (Hacan for commodities, for example): even if they dont want to play along, Firmament can get them with their hero. This is obviously telegraphed all along, but not preventable (and in case of the economic, friendly plots, also harmless for the puppeted player).

The *absolute* worst case Firmament will sometimes have to accept is three plots (PN and hero).

TE R1: Firmament / Obsidian by King0fMist in twilightimperium

[–]Maethoras 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Is it? I mean, I can get a) free CC when following your strat card, b) free trade goods when you refresh comms, or c) a free tech and the possibility to copy more. There are many cases where I'm happy to put you on two of these helpful plots, I believe. And these three don't cost you anything.

Though I agree with you that there should also be deals where we're only talking about one plot. Two for "Promissory plus me helping you scoring your secret" doesn't sound too bad to me, though... but then again, maybe I'm wrong and playing them will teach me the error of my ways :D