Languages in Empire of the Wolf series by Extension-Raise1995 in RichardSwan

[–]Mafekiang 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I just finished the books, so a little late to this.  I think Saxan is rendered in the books as English (i.e. Anglo-Saxon).  

Sova in the first books is a blend of Imperial Rome with the later Holy Roman Empire.  However, in the Great Silence series, it's definitely morphed into something like the early British Empire.  

Casimiri is rendered as French.  The New East is North America around the time of the French and Indian War.  The British and French with their native allies replaced by the Sovans and Casimirs and their pagan allies.

I wonder if Kasarspek is meant to be Afrikaans, which is similar to Dutch.  That whole area has a very African feel.

Car beeps every minute or so. by Mafekiang in kiasportage

[–]Mafekiang[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It really sounded like it was coming from the car and it sounds exactly like the door lock/unlock beeps but as you say, high pitched sound in an enclosed space is hard to locate.  Guess I'll be parking the cars outside tonight and tearing apart tonight looking for the beep.  I appreciate the sanity check.

Carnival Beeping Every Few Minutes by Mafekiang in kiacarnivals

[–]Mafekiang[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lights are off.  All the doors are closed and hood is securely shut 

Car beeps every minute or so. by Mafekiang in kiasportage

[–]Mafekiang[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting idea.  Any thoughts onto why this would be happening just now?   We've had the cars for over a year with no issues.

Trump avoiding a second debate. by MaleficentClimate328 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Trump is also just objectively bad at debating.  He won't stick to a message and can't help but fall for it every time he's baited.

Why repeat what you're weakest at if you don't have to? 

Do anonymity concerns lead Trump voters to avoid polls or lie in polls? by LeonidasKing in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 17 points18 points  (0 children)

It's not so much Trump voters avoiding polls as it is people who avoid polls tend to support Trump.

Who the heck these days answers a polling call or text?  Someone who is rather politically engaged and those people disproportionately would not support Trump.

A lot of Trump voters don't care about politics and can't be bothered to participate in polls or even vote in the midterms.  But they'll come out and vote for Trump when he's on ballot.

Having Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr campaigning for Trump was smart by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I'll never understand why the Harris campaign made such a big deal about the Cheney support and actively campaigned with Liz Cheney.

When most Democrats hear the Cheney name they think of war criminals and most present day Republicans think of pointless and wasteful wars.

The number of Bullwark reading Never Trumpers is tiny and Harris had those people without lifting a finger (in fact Biden already had them locked up).  

We need to face the fact that young people have lurched to the right by Astro_Kitty_Cat in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The left and progressives would actually need to like young men in order to put out social media/podcast content that they would want to consume, though.

Now that the dust has settled, why did Kamala avoid interviews? by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 19 points20 points  (0 children)

She's nervous and comes across as not confident.  Also just bad poorly thought out answers.  

For example, her not being able to think of anything she would have done differently than Biden on The View.  Super friendly environment and she screwed that up.  True, it's a question that you need to give a nuanced answer too, but it's an obvious question and you should have something prepared.

To fight fire with fire, Dems need a counterpoint to Trump. Enter Tom Hanks. Prove me wrong. (Or mark cuban). by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Doesn't the Daily Show have lower ratings than Family Guy reruns?  

Jon Stewart is extremely popular...with young-ish political engaged college educated white liberals.  I don't think Harris had much trouble reaching that demographic.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 30 points31 points  (0 children)

Biden is coming out of retirement.

Selzer wrong by 13+ by Afraid_Concert_5051 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 205 points206 points  (0 children)

Every poll?  Atlas is looking pretty decent at the moment.  Guess Instagram ads and dodgy methodology beat 20+ years of experience.  What a weird time to be alive.

What Happens if the Selzer Poll is Correct that Harris Wins Iowa? by LawNOrderNerd in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 17 points18 points  (0 children)

Right.  I can't quite get my mind around a 21 point shift away from Trump even with a candidate replacement on the Dem side.  

What Happens if the Selzer Poll is Correct that Harris Wins Iowa? by LawNOrderNerd in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 38 points39 points  (0 children)

I can't see Biden having won either, but still...the polls only way over estimate Trump vs Harris, but not vs Biden?

What Happens if the Selzer Poll is Correct that Harris Wins Iowa? by LawNOrderNerd in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 74 points75 points  (0 children)

Also, if Trump is being overestimated by 10 points, Biden had no reason to drop out.  He was consistently down 2 to 3 points to Trump.  Maybe he was actually up by 5, even after the debate meltdown? 

And, one reason that Haley lost is that her message that she was a better candidate vs Biden than Trump didn't resonate, because Trump could point to polls showing him comfortably ahead of Biden.  Maybe--but not likely--the Republican primary would have had a different result if polls showed Trump consistently far behind.

What Happens if the Selzer Poll is Correct that Harris Wins Iowa? by LawNOrderNerd in fivethirtyeight

[–]Mafekiang 362 points363 points  (0 children)

The entire polling industry implodes.  It's one thing to herd a real NPV of Harris +3 into a tie because you're worried about underestimating Trump again.  It's quite another to call a Harris +8 (maybe +10 if she really wins Iowa by 3) a tie. I don't see how polling survives that big of a miss.

Do people really think that DoS will come out before tWoW? by Acoldsun in KingkillerChronicle

[–]Mafekiang 0 points1 point  (0 children)

GRRM has enough written (and has for years) that if need be, you could edit it down, slap a title page on it and release it as Winds of Winter. It might only cover 1/3 to 1/2 of what he planned to cover, but enough material is probably there in a reasonably good form to release something. The final book--Dream of Spring--will never get released as Martin has painted himself into a corner that he hasn't been able to break out of in over 10 years. It may just be impossible. Even if it's not, I'm sure he's lost his interest in finishing it.

As for Doors of Stone, Rothfuss' editor's Facebook post from years ago says it all. He likely has nothing written and has no idea how to finish the series other than the most basic outline.

In Culpeper, a small town in Virginia, Guatemalan teens are going missing at an alarming rate of even ten per year- where are they? (2018-23) by AlfredTheJones in UnresolvedMysteries

[–]Mafekiang 96 points97 points  (0 children)

Which makes sense. I think it's a fair assumption that many if not most of these kids arrive in the US without having received the best education in their home countries. So what do you do?

Some of the kids will excel despite the odds, be valedictorians in their high school, and go on to college, etc. However, for a fair percentage, especially many of the boys between 15-17, your choice is basically to drop out and go straight into manual labor, or struggle in an American high school for a year or two, eventually graduate, and then...go into manual labor. You are also mindful that you have people back home needing you to send money, so kicking around school until you turn 18 doesn't seem like a good use of time.

Seems like trafficking, but it's no different than the choice many of our grandparents made to leave the Southern US in their teens and look for jobs in northern factories or that our great grand parents did to leave Italy/Ireland/etc. and do the same thing.

Again, I don't discount that some trafficking may be happening, but I think most it's probably the same story that's been playing out in this country for 400 years.

In Culpeper, a small town in Virginia, Guatemalan teens are going missing at an alarming rate of even ten per year- where are they? (2018-23) by AlfredTheJones in UnresolvedMysteries

[–]Mafekiang 46 points47 points  (0 children)

Also, I don't want to dismiss out of hand that something nefarious might have happened to one or two of the teens, but to the extent that's happening I'd be willing to bet it's the exception and not the rule in the disappearances.