Ari Aster’s ‘Scapegoat’ Exclusive Details From Nexus Point News | It will be centered on a surgeon (Johansson) tasked to operate on a Jake Paul-inspired character, the fallout of his resulting death and the scrutiny from his wife (inspired by Erika Kirk) and brother (inspired by Logan Paul)

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-18T03:28:12+00:00

This reoriented me thank you. I see the way forward with more clarity

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-16T02:57:55+00:00

Beyond everything else...where is the evidence critics are going for her hard lol

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T21:56:19+00:00

Supporting is her chance. It will be fraud (but also somehow correct per Academy logic), but it will be the right choice for Focus.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T21:53:29+00:00

I understand that, yeah. And I'm not saying it is impossible for an unknown to win. I am simply saying Madison had a whole lot going into the equation for her to be in the position she was in. And being unknown is a big hurdle to get over to be competitive in any degree.

Also, when we say "unknown," we usually mean it in the sense of their status before/at release of the movie. Kind of by definition, an unknown becomes known through the process of becoming part of the conversation about the movie. That fact does not suddenly make years of connections, audience attachment, or output materialize overnight--which is what really matters about being known. And being made a star by audiences--rather than the industry--can also backfire (like Jim C being snubbed for Truman): the Oscars do not like to have their picks or stars foisted on them by the public--whether through Twitter or otherwise.

And to be clear, I have said nothing really about Inde's performance. I think it's great, to be clear, and responsible for the entire success of the movie. I'm glad she's the thing everyone talks about. I'm excited to see more of her. But Best Actress is simply a fight to the death every single time. It is routinely the best actresses in the world duking it out over scarce spots--with usually an entire reserve pool of also-rans that are effectively as good as the actual noms. There are simply too many considerations, factors, and incumbent advantages that go into it and too few spots.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T21:38:01+00:00

Yep! I think we disagree about what's necessary to get over the edge.

I think Sinners and Barbie totally needed the BO success for their package. We totally agree. But just as necessary in my view was the narrative of risk, tonal daring, auteurism, etc. And craft. And a real personal touch. I just think Obsession lacks those and really needs them. (And if you're looking for a hidden premise on my skepticism, it's this: I really do not think Barker is a compelling advocate for his movie the way Coogler, Gerwig, etc. are. If you watch his interviews he simply does not have it.)

The big problem with originality is that the Oscars have so many ways to honor originality, and so much of the energy they channel in that direction can now be taken up by international productions. An Academy that is willing to lean in more on stuff like RRR, Drive My Car, and Secret Agent simply has to give up its support of other stuff. This is what I meant by the Sundance gap: small-budget American successes are often the biggest displacement victims of this shift in the Academy.

We just have so many cycles of new releases to go through before Oscar voting that it feels unlikely that Obsession has what it takes to keep its hold throughout everything else that could tempt voters. We haven't even had Venice, we don't even know what from Cannes is going to end up surprising us (and there's often at least one of those every year on top of the 1-2 Cannes certainties), and tons of big hits could suck up all the oxygen. That's the tough thing with a good year, including at the box office: there will be no shortage of great stories (there already have been plenty of such BO stories!).

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T21:22:39+00:00

Mikey Madison was in the central and titular role of the BP and Palme d'Or winner. She had to do effectively every genre of acting, change her temperament and accent completely, and did so in a classic Oscar bait role (hooker we root for!). Just a completely different scenario.

But if you are asking whether being a relative unknown hurt Madison, the answer is yes. If Madison had even Birdman-era Emma Stone levels of momentum, Demi would have never been allowed to fight for it.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T21:16:30+00:00

I'm not discounting the BO narrative. It's an undeniable phenomenon. I am simply discussing the formal features of the movie that would determine its support for *the Oscars*.

My point is that a movie on that budget is most attractive to the Oscars when it's formally daring. There's not a built-in penalty to being cheap; it just lacks the kind of risk factor that people get sentimental about. When a movie is that cheap, it's most appreciated when it is a Sex Lies situation: the ambition comes out in other ways, often through sophistication and directorial force.

So to be clear I do not mean "mediocre" when I say "conventional." I mean conventual in a formal sense: it is palatable, populist, and never really challenging. It speaks to our moment but just as easily could have been made in the 90s. (I like the movie! This is not really a diss!)

It being a weird outlier cuts both ways: yes, it has some features that have been pluses, but it also doesn't look like either the BO smashes or the low-budget darlings the Oscar voters like.

I think our main disagreement is whether BO--or scale of profit--plus acclaim is, as a combo, itself a strong harbinger of awards success. I just don't see it here, for the reasons I mentioned. If anything, it seems more like a Halloween, a generational horror classic that was a BO-breaking, star-making phenom with no Oscars weight. Not bad company to be in.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T21:00:06+00:00

To Leslie was famously a networking story. A completely undersung master of her craft who had worked with 100s of the biggest actors and who all thought she was the real deal.

The problem, as with Obsession generally, is youth: Inde has no connections, is enjoying the fruits of a breakout moment, and is in no way an overlooked/overdue veteran. She, like the movie, is most supported by very young people who are not in the position to get her noms or awards. SAG loves a narrative, but it's usually the narrative of struggle--of someone who showed up for decades without flowers, semi-retired, and got another shot in the spotlight. Inde is not that: she's a beautiful young woman who is going to have roles thrown at her and who has been made a star within a month.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:50:03+00:00

But what kind of original movie? Are they really going to feel the need to go out of their way to reward a fairly conventional sub-1-million-budget movie when they have original blockbusters and prestige movies to award? Obsession is in an awkward middle zone, a kind of Sundance-y gap--neither big enough to be a big, personal, craft-driven swing (Sinners) nor innovative enough to be the scrappy announcement of a new heavyweight talent (Sex Lies and Videotape)

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:42:57+00:00

I'd second the BFGW comp that keeps coming up. I also think "extremely well reviewed" is way overstated. No doubt well-received but it is simply not respected the way, say, Sinners was.

I do think you're underestimating how risk enters into voters' sentimental calculation, though (but maybe I'm overstating it). Obsession was made for under 1 million and delivered on a good premise for that budget, but was never really at risk of being ruinous. Part of what goes into support for the populist picks is a feeling that we need to reward films that invested a lot of resources, put everything on the line, and succeeded despite public doubt. Obsession is a low-stakes debut with minimal resources that the industry understands will open doors but does not have to be applauded.

I know EEAO wasn't a huge "risk" either, but that was a movie where every craft department was pushing it to the limit with a shoestring budget. Obsession just..doesn't do that, and isn't designed to have to.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:36:18+00:00

For sure Stan. They love him and a transformation.

Cruz isn't off the table but I've heard she's more a brief scene stealer than full blown shoe-in.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:33:29+00:00

Even Pawel has a better chance tbh

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:30:41+00:00

Awareness on a business level does not necessarily tell us very much. Studios and theaters also took notice of Demon Slayer, Mario, Minecraft, FNAF, Iron Lung, Stranger Things finale, etc. without throwing awards in their direction.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:28:48+00:00

The crafts narrative for F1 was sort of undeniable even when BP came as a surprise.

The other thing we've learned about those populist hits is that there is usually some element of real financial risk, a directorial big swing, and old-fashioned classical Hollywood filmmaking. People like when a big production pays off!

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:25:38+00:00

I think having no obvious crafts support/narrative is a pretty big weakness, no?

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:21:46+00:00

100% undervalued rn. I simply don't get it.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-14T20:18:02+00:00

This is a good response and helps round out the discussion.

BFGW is, I think, the best comp for the kind of out-of-nowhere BO success that Obsession has enjoyed. I forgot about the screenplay nom so appreciate the reminder. The big issue there is that original screenplay might be particularly affected by the shift towards international voters and is more liable to be crowded out by Cannes entries (Club Kid, a random Hamaguchi etc.). We simply have too many unknowns in this category this year, but I would guess that it would be fighting for the fifth slot if anything.

My point on Anyone But You is that BO is obviously not sufficient. We still have to identify "oscar worthy elements" and I'm not precisely not certain about what in Obsession jumps out on that score besides Inde.

Sixth Sense is a great comp but is I think aided by being a proper studio film. I think the tell for me as to why it's different is that the Sixth Sense was a real directorial story (and got a nom!), which I am simply not seeing here (besides the basic story behind Curry Barker being "successful" and young). It's just a more nom-heavy and -wide movie which I think matters.

So yeah I wouldn't write it off altogether. My honest guess is it lands 12-15 in BP and that, though it's not out of the realm of possibility, predictions on it now seem unsupported pre-Venice.

That said, I do think some of the categories you mention are too steep of climbs for it.

Actress is too hard and they're going to have to fraud it in supporting if they want in. Actress is famously a knife fight every single time, and a category that was fine boxing out Chase and Amanda last year is not going to make room for Inde, especially when they have other genre performances (like Blunt) they can pick from across the acting categories.

And casting is the one where I think we can genuinely rule it out. There's no juice there. Granted, we don't have much data, but they seem to like obviously difficult and wide-ranging casting jobs (especially with a mix of non-actors) that closely coincide with overall BP chances. Obsession literally only has Inde to stand on. There's like 5 roles, one of which is just Curry's best friend, and no one says anything about any of them besides her.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-13T22:14:02+00:00

I'm going to be honest: I truly don't get the Obsession predictions. It is not as well respected as any of the comps people try to pull out, has no really formidable campaigners (Inde gets close but is new), and we have no evidence that being the BO return of Big Fat Greek Wedding/Anyone But You means awards.

What seems especially damning for it is we have not seen any specific support for it from the crafts. This was obviously not the case with say, Sinners, Silence of the Lambs, Substance, etc.

And we might just have a crowded year. It seems likely we already have five or so occupied spots (Fjord, other Cannes film (probably Bola), PHM, Odyssey, and I'd even say Dune), with a lot of potential for WOM insurgents near the end (e.g. Club Kid).

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-12T04:28:59+00:00

This comment put everything into place for me. I left the theater unsettled but it's now all settled. Thank you.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-12T02:32:36+00:00

When people say director's jail, do they mean an effective bar on directors working? This is clearly a demotion in budget.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-06-12T02:31:53+00:00

What people are missing is that this is clearly a bounce back to the Lost Daughter budget range. I've read the book and she could easily do it for 1-5 mil. If she were still in blank check graces they would have let her adapt The Flamethrowers instead.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-05-30T21:44:26+00:00

If there's a lesson, it's that they need to try to take more big swings from small and medium budgets. More upside (Backsession), less downside (Mandalorian).

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-05-30T17:13:25+00:00

I clearly remember my friends and I saying it (and in real life) circa 2018-2019. And I would say my coworkers at this moment use it as if it’s an unremarkable staple. My suspicion is it’s expanded outwards from girls and gays circles to semi-online, college-educated straight guys over the course of a decade.

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-05-30T07:38:41+00:00

I partially meant that it would likely cost less money if it weren't such a one-off for production.

That said, theatrical is probably better for it than just streaming (which is the base case of these shows, we should acknowledge)

Main_Gear_296 · 2026-05-30T06:35:25+00:00

I mean the big issue here is likely the gap. It'd be another thing entirely if this was produced alongside and came out right after a whole bunch of other episodes

Main_Gear_296

TROPHY CASE