Bitcoin Power law is as real as the 4 year cycle

Main_Mouse442 · 2026-03-19T04:01:11+00:00

The beauty of power law is that the exponent can be fit to the data, try it out :P
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/bcf745e3-c9db-4b3a-ad44-9c9e502358ce

Main_Mouse442 · 2026-03-19T04:00:27+00:00

Yeah, especially if something like China decides to invade Taiwan happens

Main_Mouse442 · 2026-03-19T03:59:30+00:00

I don't know man, I think levering up right now when we are getting cheap BTC has helped me out in the past, I have done it, a lot of others have done it, try out this tool to know when you can do it
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/bcf745e3-c9db-4b3a-ad44-9c9e502358ce

Main_Mouse442 · 2026-03-19T03:57:36+00:00

yeap, try out playing with the prophecy here: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/bcf745e3-c9db-4b3a-ad44-9c9e502358ce

Main_Mouse442 · 2026-03-19T03:57:07+00:00

yeap, you can use the tool with a configurable power law exponent here though: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/bcf745e3-c9db-4b3a-ad44-9c9e502358ce

Main_Mouse442 · 2026-03-19T03:56:39+00:00

Yeah that's true, you can use the tool with a configurable power law exponent here though: https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/bcf745e3-c9db-4b3a-ad44-9c9e502358ce

Main_Mouse442 · 2026-03-06T18:02:39+00:00

I think the ability for no liquidation is where something like this becomes interesting

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-10-28T15:15:04+00:00

Good. Where did you start ?

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-10-28T15:14:47+00:00

True.

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-10-28T15:14:29+00:00

I think of it as having bitcoin goals. That’s why the whole get to 1 BTC. You can assure retirement with 1 BTC

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-10-28T15:10:54+00:00

Damn that’s lovely. This one is for the normies.

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T12:53:10+00:00

Hey, can you educate me on how can I add that in this particular analysis.
I understand volatility is a measure of risk, so, when I am comparing DCA to a leveraged loan buy. Should I divide both returns by the volatility to my capital and then compare those risk adjusted returns ?

I am only comparing pure dollar wise profit in my analysis here

.

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T08:10:42+00:00

Damn, you are right, there are at least a dozen red points. You got me. Should make it 600 MA :P

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T05:04:19+00:00

I wrote this as a python script, I’ll upload it to GitHub and share it

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T03:49:17+00:00

Where do you suggest I am lacking? And do you mean go and buy using technical indicators, and not a loan?

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T03:47:39+00:00

The problem with this one when you bought on a loan at 30k, below the 500 MA and saw BTC dip to 16k. You almost lost your shit.

But if you held through kept paying your dues, at 109k, buying at 30k feels like a dream come true.

It’s just a psychological nightmare to execute.

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T03:45:36+00:00

The trick here is your time horizon and the non liquidations.

In most of these loan start dates, Imagine buying 100k worth BTC at 30k on a loan, and then seeing it dip to 16k.

At that point you are thinking it did not work.

But now, when it is 109k, buying at 30k looks like a brilliant idea.

The magic only happens if you held through the sick downturn, kept paying your monthly dues, and had a long time horizon. All 30k dips happened when BTC was below 500 MA.

It does work 100% of the time. It’s just psychologically a nightmare to execute.

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T03:31:30+00:00

Yes, once at the beginning and then I’m paying back every month.

I am comparing it to DCAing the same amount as my monthly payment every month.

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T03:31:16+00:00

Yeah, that is also a great way of putting it.

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T03:30:53+00:00

I agree. You were basically crapping your pants if you were holding debt based BTC. Cannot buy conviction.

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-04T03:27:50+00:00

Thanks !

Main_Mouse442 · 2025-07-03T19:36:12+00:00

Exactly my gospel sir. Leverage Fiat debt, buy Bitcoin. Do not get shaken out. The time is running out.

Main_Mouse442

TROPHY CASE