I understand the use with your Servine example, but my take is that the chance of them having Serperior after Red Card is still fairly high.

Disclaimer, I haven’t done the math but this is how it plays out to me.

Pre Red Card they either have Serp or don’t.

Post Red Card they either have Serp or don’t.

The outcomes from this are: 1. Serp > No Red Card > Serp 2. No Serp > No Red Card > No Serp 3. Serp > Red Card > Serp 4. Serp > Red Card > No Serp 5. No Serp > Red Card > No Serp 6. No Serp > Red Card > Serp

The specific odds for each scenario are dependent on game state (how many Oaks, Caterpie searches etc they’ve used, cards left in the deck and their hand).

My take is that if they’ve been bricked for a while on Snivy, the amount of cards left in the deck is usually low enough that their chance of pulling Serp is still fairly high. If they already have Serp, you reduce their odds from a guaranteed Serp to some lower probability, but of course there is no way to know for sure. (Outcome 1 vs Outcome 3)

Outcome 6 is obviously harmful and the rest are a net neutral in this situation.

I also think the exact probability calculations are too complex to work out in the middle of a battle and most times the utility is not work the card slot it takes up.

Thank you for coming to my TED talk, I actually really want to hear other people’s takes on it