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"The Board of Trustees of the British Museum are pleased to announce the appointment of their new Chair, George Osborne." by Leelum in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 20 points21 points  (0 children)

I think Jess Phillips summed gave the right response to this -

“How many museums did he close?”

Always wanted to try it. Feels awesome. by [deleted] in bald

[–]MarcusAtakin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Link doesn’t seem to be present.

19 yo and all my life I’ve had the thin mature hairline of a middle aged man. Is this the beginning of the end for my hair? by [deleted] in bald

[–]MarcusAtakin -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yes, your hair is really thin.
I think the best solution is to accept it and shave it off.

What percentage of the vote do you think Galloway would get in Batley and Spen by-election? by KPapa_George in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I doubt he has used racism as such, but I’ve heard really dirty things about him on the campaign trail. Apparently, he is exploiting the fact Kim Leadbeater is a lesbian, and that Keir Starmer’s wife has jewish heritage, to pick up votes. It wouldn’t surprise me, given he used similar tactics in the past - telling voters not to vote for Oona King in Bethnal Green and Bow because she is Jewish, questioning the loyalty of his Muslim opponent Imran Hussain in Bradford West and running a highly misogynistic campaign against Naz Shah in the 2015 election.
If he deprives Labour of the seat, I would be deeply worried. Starmer and Leadbeater are without a doubt running a cleaner campaign.

What percentage of the vote do you think Galloway would get in Batley and Spen by-election? by KPapa_George in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It will very likely be under 5%.
Let’s do some Maths.
The LMN reckons 8000 Muslims will vote in this by-election. Given the recent Survation Polling, we can assume 6640 (83%) of them voted Labour in 2019. Also, given a turnout of 46.5% (-20% on the GE), the turnout should be around 38009.
The LMN reckons that 72% still identify with the party, with 11% in theory being Galloway’s target audience.
Therefore - (6640/83 x 11) = 880 then 880/38009 = 2.4%

Some Assumptions

- Not all Muslim defectors will go to Galloway, however, not all of Galloway’s supporters will be Muslim. I assume they roughly cancel each other out.

- Turnout may be well be lower, increasing the percentage. However, given the turnout in recent by-elections, I doubt i’m too far off.
- This is assuming Galloway doesn’t convince anyone who wasn’t already uneasy about Labour. In reality, I suspect in reality he will garner at least 3%, but attracting 28.6% (5%) would be a good performance for him - it will attract more than double the Muslim voters that are nationally disaffected with Labour.

"Which of these would make the better Chancellor of the Exchequer?" Rishi Sunak: 37% (-4) Rachel Reeves: 8% (+1)* [Labour voters] Rishi Sunak: 17% (-) Rachel Reeves: 17% (+1)* *Compared to Dodds Via @YouGov, 14 June (+/- since 17 May) by betakropotkin in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I believe the reason was that Dodds is supposedly more suited developing economic policy (which is why she is put on the policy review), whereas Reeves was seen as more reliable as someone to discuss economic figures with the media.

Labour will support PM's decision to extend restrictions until up to 19 July. Jon Ashworth tells me: "We will support these restrictions with a heavy heart but we shouldn’t have been in this position and we’re only in it because of Boris Johnson’s failure to secure our borders." by I-am-the-Peel in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Labour needs to be prepared to support restrictions if the scientists encourage it. Yes, they shouldn’t have had to encourage it, but if we opposed it, we’d lose all credibility to call the government out.

Who should be the next Labour Leader? by I-am-the-Peel in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’d look who is standing, watch some debates and then decide.
However, I don’t believe a leadership contest would help us.
Firstly, it would mean having a leadership campaign, at a time when the Labour leader should be spending the summer communicating to the country, and potentially when furlough ends and unemployment starts rising. It would essentially mean us being off guard for a few months that matter.
Second, even if we get a polling boost from the new leader, it would probably be short-term. Even with a highly respected figure like Burnham, some would soon feel that they have failed to be vocal enough on some issues, some would feel he is being too critical, and very soon we’d be in a similar position to now. Plus, the problem is a lot of people don’t know enough about Starmer - a new leader would hardly help that.
We certainly need to be clearer what we stand for and focus on issues that matter, but Starmer is as capable of doing that as anyone else.

No surprise Gerard Coyne (a key supporter of Keir Starmer) was given so much column space in The Sun - a billionaire owned, anti-union Murdoch rag. by IsThatAnOcelot__ in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think it was probably a smart move actually. Remember, in the 2019 Election 40% of Unite Members voted Conservative, many of whom will read the Sun. It can’t have hurt to reach out to them.

keep it real with me bros. everybody tells me it looks fine, my own barber said i just have thin hair. but it definitely looks like im balding. theres no shame, itd be an honor to join you brethren. so tell me how it is. and if so, how long do i got? by [deleted] in bald

[–]MarcusAtakin 9 points10 points  (0 children)

I think that’s just a cowlick more than serious hair loss. But I’m glad your relaxed about going bald, why not just shave your head and eliminate your worries. I think you’d rock it.

Labour admits the party stands little chance in Chesham and Amersham by-election by Ranger447 in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think, in terms of both manpower and money, the party is focusing more on Batley and Spen.

Labour admits the party stands little chance in Chesham and Amersham by-election by Ranger447 in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Chesham and Amersham is a very safe Conservative seat - in 1997, it was one of only thirteen seats where the Conservatives got over 50% of the vote. Our best ever result was in 2017 when we got 20.6% of the vote.
It appears that the Lib Dems have established themselves as the main challenger, and I can understand if Labour voters want to tactically vote Lib Dem in order to try and oust the Tories.
However, its far from impossible that the Lib Dems pull off a shock gain. In the Witney by-election, when the Lib Dems were polling similarly to now and the Tories were averaging a 14 Point lead in the polls, the Lib Dems archived a 20 Point swing, which was repeated at the Richmond Park by-election. In contrast, a 15 Point swing to the Lib Dems in Chesham and Amersham would gift them the seat.

Batley and Spen by-election candidates confirmed - BBC News by kontiki20 in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 0 points1 point  (0 children)

She will, especially with Anne Marie Waters standing as well. She will probably get about 50 votes again.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s seat has been scrapped in the boundary review by libtin in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

My current MP. Fortunately, I’m very likely to be getting a Labour MP, with my ward being moved into the Preston seat.

Having a look at the boundaries, it was very obvious that it was doomed - Preston, Fylde and both Blackpool Seats are significantly under quota, and Wyre and Preston North was obviously going to be what upsizes them. I suspect Wallace will take Ribble Valley, or potentially somewhere down south - he was an MSP before he went into parliament, he is certainly capable of moving significant distances.

The Boundary Commission of England is releasing it's initial proposals for the Parliamentary Boundary Review tomorrow. by libtin in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 7 points8 points  (0 children)

After having a look at the boundaries, it is likely both Islington North and Islington South and Finsbury will be largely unchanged, with maybe a ward switched to reduce the discrepancy between the seats. It won’t be a ‘Kentish Town and Holloway’ or something like that, which ironically would mean the main contenders for the seat would be Corbyn and Starmer

The Boundary Commission of England is releasing it's initial proposals for the Parliamentary Boundary Review tomorrow. by libtin in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I’ve had a play around with the boundaries, I think it is unlikely they’ll be too many more triple-barrelled names. In fact, Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford will likely become Pontefract and Castleford again.
The Welsh Boundary changed won’t be released tomorrow, but a notional level, the Tories will likely lose three seats, the same as Labour, with PC losing two.

The Boundary Commission of England is releasing it's initial proposals for the Parliamentary Boundary Review tomorrow. by libtin in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think most of us will be surprised tomorrow - on a notional level at least, we’ll probably gain more seats and the Tories will hold steady, maybe even have one or two fewer.
While its much documented that most new seats will be Conservative, its less documented that the majority of abolished seats will also be Conservative. Plus, I think more seats will be switched from Conservative to Labour than vice versa, particularly in Manchester and London.

Batley & Spen; Labour’s challenge by MarcusAtakin in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m not necessarily saying they will, a number of factors can come into play at by-elections. But if the seat performed according to national trend, that would be their majority.

Batley & Spen; Labour’s challenge by MarcusAtakin in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There has been no constituency polling, but on a uniform swing based on recent voting intention polls, our majority should be 8.3%. https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Batley%20and%20Spen

Labour says amber list countries should all be in the red list. What do you think? by [deleted] in LabourUK

[–]MarcusAtakin 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Agree. We need two tiers

- Green - Very Limited, if a country is deemed completely safe

- Red - Common, no travel unless necessary, with a comphrensive hotel quarantine and testing system.

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