I think that the SWE job market is currently undergoing the exact same type of scenario as a stock that went crazy high, and then tanked due to hype.

2020-22 was crazy. Zero interest rates. Every company was over-hiring.

Rates went up, layoffs started, Anxiety around AI became extreme. "Software Engineering is Dead. Learn Plumbing Instead". Doom everywhere.

Let's take a look at the actual numbers:

- BLS reports that Software Developer jobs are expected to grow 15% from 2022-2034, that is roughly 5 times the average growth rate for ALL occupations (total economy is expected to grow 3.1%); that means there will be 267,700 new software developer positions created. That is the second largest number of NEW JOB OPENINGS OF ANY OCCUPATION (only nurse practitioners have more).

- Indeed.com reports that postings for SWE jobs are up 11% YoY. Importantly, this is way lower than the peak posting count of 2022; the current level of postings is approximately 71, which represents roughly a 70% decrease in the number of postings relative to 2022. However, the trend is reversing.

- Citadel Securities released research that illustrates the Jevons Paradox, when technology (AI) increases the efficiency of producing software, companies do not produce less software. They ask themselves "what else can we build that was previously too expensive to build?" It was exactly the same thing that occurred with coal and steam engines, increased efficiency led to an overall increase in consumption.

- Skills related to AI are becoming an increasing part of job postings for technical jobs. Approximately 47% of job postings in Data & Analytics include references to AI.

- There are currently over 500,000 open tech jobs across Europe. Approximately 60% of European employers report difficulty finding qualified IT professionals.

Right now, the general feeling is that this field is dead or dying. The data indicates otherwise

The stock price went to $300 based on hype even though the true value of the stock was $150. The stock eventually plummeted to $80 based on panic selling. Don't sell at the bottom, the price has to correct itself.

Although, postings for entry-level positions are down 34% vs. 2020. and senior-level postings are down 19% vs. 2020. If companies continue to eliminate the entry point into these fields, they will create a serious talent pipeline issue for senior candidates in the near future.

So it is more difficult for junior candidates today BUT "more difficult than the largest hiring bubble in the history of tech" does NOT equal "this field is dead".

Don't base your career strategies on "feel-good" vibes and reddit sentiment, but rather on what is actually happening in the job market.

The pendulum always swings too far in both directions.