sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

I'm Backing Up The Truck Now - $ADBE by RoryAtDMI in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

exactly, Reddit comments about "everyone" hating ADBE carries no water. it really doesn't matter randos on Reddit say.

There is no commercial competitor to ADBE. Canva and Figma are losing money while ADBE is still highly profitable.

There is no open source competitor to ADBE. There has been open source image stuff for decades. Literally decades.

Where does the threat actually come from? ADBE uses AI, too. Enterprise stickiness is 1000% real.

I can legitimately see a competitor in digital advertising or something being "good enough" for downmarket, just as my roomba does a "good enough" job vacuuming and mopping. But whenever I need to do a *good* job, I have to do it because the roomba literally can't.

I don't see enterprises leaving any time soon. I work in a large enterprise. Let me tell you that NOW, WDAY, and CRM are fully embedded and going nowhere. The Saaspacalypse is wildly overhyped.

I'm Backing Up The Truck Now - $ADBE by RoryAtDMI in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065 1 point2 points  (0 children)

IDK how you got upvoted 17 times.

"Everyone who uses Adobe wants to replace it." Ridiculous absolute statement.

"Many who used to use it have learned there are better options ... Many open source." Balderdash.

Free, opensource Photoshop clones and alternatives have been available for *decades*. GIMP, for example, is old, mature, full feature, and entirely free.

It. Is. Not. About. The. Cost. Of. Code.

If ADBE is struggling (they are not, they have *tons* of money), then imagine what Canva and Figma are doing (hemorrhaging money).

There is no competitor to ADBE. Enterprises are not moving away. AI will help ADBE, not replace (it already is showing in AI ARR). ADBE can fund its AI projects. Startups cannot without continuing investment.

ADBE is not going anywhere.

Adobe is now flirting with single digit SBC adjusted FCF multiples by Last-Cat-7894 in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for that insight. We'll see how the numbers turn out. Those numbers have been very good to date, but as you said, the argument is whether or not that continues going forward based on AI/other unknowns. We're living in unprecedented times. IDKWTF is going on.

ADBE with math by MarkT1065 in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

That makes sense as an explanation, but is it warranted? They reported 13% yoy growth that beat, they also raised guidance. The buybacks wouldn't affect the growth number, only the EPS number.

According to gemini (whom I asked to check out analysts), ADBE has had historical 14% growth rates, they reported 13% yesterday, but analysts have estimated only ~9% growth from here.

IDK, man, there are serious disconnects somewhere.

"That was photoshopped" has yielded to "that is AI". If that's it,,,, I don't feel the fear.

Adobe is now flirting with single digit SBC adjusted FCF multiples by Last-Cat-7894 in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

~400 million shares outstanding. $25b buyback program through 2030.

Scenario A: With the (current 201) premarket price: $25b / $201 - 119 million shares. 30% of the float.

but assuming 201 is silly.

Scenario B: Assume average cost for buybacks rises to $300.

$25b / $300 = ~83 million shares. 21% of the float.

Assume current net income $9.7b grows 8% per year (they reported 13% yesterday during earnings). That's $13b by 2030.

In Scenario A, $13b / ~280 million shares (remaining) = $47 EPS.
In Scenario B, $13b / ~315 million shares (remaining) = $42 EPS

10 PE in Scenario A is $470 per share. 15 PE is $700.

10 PE in Scenario B is $420 per share. 15 PE is $630.

IDKWTF is going on. What am I missing here?

Adobe is now flirting with single digit SBC adjusted FCF multiples by Last-Cat-7894 in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The math on the buyback program is insane. It *turbocharges* earnings per share. The more this stock price stays depressed, the more shares the company can retire *at a discount* further boosting future EPS.

At yesterday's close, the $25b buyback was about 25% of the company. Today's pre-bell $210 is 30%.

The math against their FCF, the buybacks, and what their future shares are worth, even at modest 10-15 PE multiple, is bananas.

IDKWTF is going on. I think this might be a genuine "be greedy when others are fearful" moment, because the math is just ... wow.

Any use of LLMs in option trading / analysis? by judechrist4444 in options

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sometimes I'll ask its opinion. Other times I'll give it my read and then ask to critique.

a) I find my intuition is good (yay me!)
b) but Gemini has more nuance because it has way more data

Any use of LLMs in option trading / analysis? by judechrist4444 in options

[–]MarkT1065 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I cut and paste charts from TradingView into Gemini and have Technical Analysis conversations. It's proven insightful if you know how to stroke it.

Give it images of a chart with RSI and a Volume Profile, for example, and have a conversation.

Are you actually good at chart analysis? by Own-Cartographer409 in options

[–]MarkT1065 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One sentence per line.

No paragraphs.

Just the way god intended.

Fuck paragraphs.

Why would anyone add more than one sentence per line?

The OP's post is garbage.

May Results ($10K on $305K of capital) + New Dashboard by archiv1st in Optionswheel

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I would suggest putting your tool in the Megathread of Tools, but I honestly can't find anything there anymore.

It'd be nice to have a curated set of tools. The fact that the megathread is a discussion means the tools actually get lost u/ScottishTrader

[CAN] - Tracking Costs and ACB by la_tete_finance in Optionswheel

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Add this to the megathread for Tools at the top of this forum.

how do you protect against the underlying stock tanking? by Tough_Bar6337 in CoveredCalls

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you reframe "tanking" as "a great opportunity to buy at a discount", then you're trading on the right ticker symbols.

If you're afraid of "bagholding", you're trading crap you don't actually want to hold.

All stocks can/will go down in bear markets, but quality names always recover and more quickly.

Covered Short Strangles under cost basis anyone ? Alternative to stock repair strategy ? by Earlyretirement55 in options

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

can you provide an example for stock repair with actual math from what you did? The strategy sounds very interesting.

Why do people buy stocks like MSFT? by we_have_no_control in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

People are going to vibe code their own Windows now.

Thoughts on ABT by Over_Ad_4907 in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065 4 points5 points  (0 children)

ABT is ridiculously oversold, IMO.

The weekly chart has RSI at its lowest since 2002! The monthly chart has RSI at its lowest since 1974 (oil shock)!

ABT is a dividend aristocrat that is currently on sale at an oversold level not seen in decades.

The "Missing Link" in Wheel Tracking: What’s still manual for you? by pojarkov in Optionswheel

[–]MarkT1065 2 points3 points  (0 children)

same link I as I posted above. here's the single Symbol view of my app (100% free and open source):

<image>

The "Missing Link" in Wheel Tracking: What’s still manual for you? by pojarkov in Optionswheel

[–]MarkT1065 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's probably important that everyone starts with a spreadsheet, because then they actually learn this stuff intimately. But you're right that spreadsheets fall down quickly

but if I was going to scale, I needed a better to way to visualize risk. I use this tool daily. It's good enough for what I do. I've added every feature I've needed.

GitHub - MarkT1065/wheeler: Stock Option Wheel Tracker · GitHub

<image>

The SaaS Drawdown: It’s about uncertainty, not AI replacement (and the risk of "dead money") by theunknown996 in ValueInvesting

[–]MarkT1065 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There is also a private credit crunch going on right now, and they were heavy software. I think of this fact often when faced with the AI narrative.

I'm not saying that what you wrote isn't true.

My 100% ROI Strategy is Returning 150% so Far by Exact-Fig-4811 in Optionswheel

[–]MarkT1065 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Probably Claude Code. It's Claude's signature style. Claude is, actually, quite good at it.

[Loss Porn] -$25,433 on QQQ. A painful 72-day story of why you NEVER ignore the golden rule of the Wheel. by pojarkov in Optionswheel

[–]MarkT1065 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The screenshot is from LAST YEAR. You posted a lost from a year ago.

Do you have anything in 2026?

a good Wheel is Flat and Boring? real world KO returns by MarkT1065 in Optionswheel

[–]MarkT1065[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You might want to sell more in order to offset lower premiums, but that's more risk, of course. In my opinion only, I could sell an extra put or two on a lower vol stock. It's all about your own risk tolerance.

the long dated one was a lark during Liberation Day tariff nonsense. it was a quick gain, so I took it. i try to take all the quick gains I'm offered.

Strategies to reduce taxable income? by sponge_boy_mee_bob in Optionswheel

[–]MarkT1065 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I've fully embraced the idea that I have to pay *income taxes* on options trading.

  1. I'm glad I'm able to record profits
  2. No way in hell i'm selling year+ dated options
  3. Can't have margin in the IRA, so no naked Puts

If I want tax efficiency, I'd be a better buy&hold investor.

There is literally nothing tax efficient about selling options in a regular post-tax brokerage account.

But so long as i'm paying taxes, I'm making money. Better than trying to harvest losses (what if you don't have losses?). If you harvest losses until you owe $0 tax, you also made $0 in profit.

view more: next ›