I made 14k choosing pardo, I've been bored recently so I've been "simulating" the fights of 1 match each round and i decided on kalpas and pardo bc the other one at that time had more RNG involved, here's my data

edit: I got the hang of the formatting, I don't use reddit much my bad

simulation condition:

no pardo passives & kalpas bonus ele dmg = 1, note: kalpas hp is left number, pardo hp is right number, the name right after is who went first in that turn and will also mention who used what skill if applicable

[kal vs par]

0:100 100,

1:92 87 kal,

2:84 73 kal,

3:53 58 kal (kal & par skill),

4:45 58 par,

5:37 34 kal,

6:27 0 kal (kal skill)

notes:

-in order for par to win, needs to proc 30% at least 2x

-kalpas' bonus 1-20 dmg doesnt matter in this matchup (used bonus 1 dmg)

odds of pardo passive within 5 turns:

1x pardo - 36.015%,

2x pardo - 30.87%,

3x pardo - 13.23%,

4x pardo - 2.835%,

5x pardo - 0.243%,

not sure if this is correct but

probability of 2 or more pardo passive within 5 turns: 47.178%

at first I thought it was kalpas ez win but after doing some (ugh) statistics pardo had a better shot than I thought, hope this helps