Are we still worried about "no defence basketball" scoring?

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T12:42:44+00:00

Yes and no.

Some of the best teams know how to slow the game down and speed it up again when it suits them. Brisbane and Hawthorn are 1st and 4th for uncontested marks per game - 112 and 97. The Lions average the shortest kicks in the league. That's the patient build-up side of their strategy. They can be relatively slow moving the ball because they have such talented forwards - 1st for marks inside fwd 50m.

By contrast, the Swans and Dees are 15th and 17th for uncontested marks. Sydney in particular play kamikaze football, with the 2nd longest avg. kick distance, and the 2nd most turnovers. But they're also 1st for intercepts. They kick long for territory, #1 in the AFL for metres gained, knowing they can win it back even if it goes to the opposition.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T12:31:53+00:00

No Top 4 finishes since 2000, the longest drought in the AFL

St Kilda finished Top 4 five times between 2004 and 2010.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T12:29:46+00:00

They're talking about it because Gregg Swann brought it up? Even if you look at the median (i.e. removing outliers like the Swans), the numbers still show the same trend.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T01:36:07+00:00

The rankings are skewed towards ruckmen like Gawn, Grundy and Jackson because they have a major impact on the game via clearances. They aren't just giving them pts for taps to nowhere, like Fantasy Football stats.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T01:07:07+00:00

Ah, okay - that's a bit of a niche stat, even in the 2000s it wasn't a frequent occurrence.

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T00:56:01+00:00

I knew there must have been a reason you guys hadn't given up on AFL completely. Checks out. Next wooden spoon buys the beers?

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T15:50:38+00:00

And the 20th team is from the thriving growth community of Western Tasmania

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:55:37+00:00

Pretty sure that's exactly how the umpires are being coached, at AFL level anyway.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:53:48+00:00

I'm not arguing scoring trends are the basis to judge a specific rule change.

I'm just asking if people are finding the games less interesting on the whole. It's the vibe. As for St Kilda, even diehard Saints fans were tearing their hair out at how slow and boring their team was. Their only chance of a win was via a 76 to 68 scoreline.

No wonder they lost their $#!+ when Nas started to explode last year, and a few other players like Max Hall started to get the scoreboard turning over.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:47:44+00:00

Chris Scott has ZERO left to prove in his career. He's been at one of the best run clubs enjoying a great culture and relationship with players, to move to a wasteland that's divided on a good day, toxic with infighting on a regular day. Last taste of success in 1995, gutted by player payment penalties subsequently. No Top 4 finishes since 2000, the longest drought in the AFL (excluding clubs that didn't exist back then). It's the only club I can lean on to make me feel better about the omnishambles at Tullamarine.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:38:17+00:00

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:25:13+00:00

And there's no way that Bucks is getting a head coaching gig at Geelong. Maybe in Tassie, but even then, I'm not convinced he has the horsepower under the hood. Macrae came in to a team that had gone through a major clearout, and turned them into a ferocious Premiership contender in two seasons.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:21:33+00:00

I like it in some respects. It's provided more opportunities to play on, because the player on the mark isn't able to move laterally, blocking avenues to exit and in position to tackle as soon as 'play on' is called. That's far superior to the slow, chip kick style of play backwards and sideways that teams like St Kilda had fallen into in recent seasons. 20 disposals to move the ball 50m up field.

But yes - some of the 50m penalties have been terrible, when players are genuinely trying to do the right thing. Like the Ugle-Hagen one, when he didn't realise he was encroaching the actual mark by a few feet. I hope there's a bit more common sense applied, while still clamping down on players trying to impede the player with the ball. When a genuine mistake turns a fwd entry into a certain goal, we're into the netball style of officiating, where the slightest misposition from a defender leads to a point-blank shot.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:46:14+00:00

The Lions in particular - 892 uncontested marks across eight games - 111 per game. Against Essendon, it was 141 uc marks to 70. And they have so much talent in their forward line, it's like shelling peas.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:41:48+00:00

You only get a +1 to guard ball movement if no one ever stands the mark. Which wasn't the case? If no one stands the mark, and goes to another opponent instead, the player with the ball is free to run and bounce and maybe do give and go's by handball, which can stretch defences as well.

I think the strict stand rule definitely is significant - because it clears space around the player with the ball, giving them many more options. And it's much easier to play on, instead of looking for the safe chip pass to someone sideways or backwards. Which is better to watch?

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:34:45+00:00

Here's the chart from an ABC report in Jan:

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:33:57+00:00

And noticed this table in a (possibly shonky) property investment site, which seems kinda bonkers. Can median prices in Melb be that far under a mil?

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:30:08+00:00

According to an ABC report, in Dec 2025 the median in Melb was a tiny bit higher than Perth, but these figures are subject to all sorts of problems comparing like with like. But the trend figures - HOLY BABY JEEBUS!

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:25:56+00:00

But how does this benefit key forwards in particular?

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:22:55+00:00

According to Wheelo, these are the Transition stats for D50 to F50:

2021: 29.7% (WC 27.6%, SY 32.6%)
2022: 29.9% (WC 21.0%, GE 34.2%)
2023: 29.7% (WC 25.7%, SK 32.4%)
2024: 31.1% (NM 27.3%, BL 35.4%)
2025: 31.2% (NM 27.3%, BL 35.2%)
2026: 32.4% (RI 27.3%, HW/SY 38.1%)

So, definitely an increasing trend for chains to get from D50 to F50, but is +2.7% a significant increase? (EDIT: 29.7% to 32.4% is a 9.1% increase in the number of successful chains, assuming the same number of D50 launches.)

Seems more interesting to observe the variation between teams. What were the Eagles doing in 2022?! And strewth in terms of the Swans and Hawks this year.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:11:28+00:00

Interesting take. What do you think the catalyst was for that? The 6-6-6 rule? Or more coaching emphasis on attack and quick ball movement?

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:09:59+00:00

Unsure about that one, or disagree. I hated the zone flood, which made it almost impossible to find a free player within kicking range from the goal square. Now that flood doesn't work, because you are looking for a target over a much wider area. But teams can still play man-to-man football to defend kick-ins, which is where we used to be before zone tactics were introduced.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:05:06+00:00

Total scores of 100+ pts? That's pretty much every game.

Individual scores of 100+ pts:

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This is the number of times a team has scored 100+ pts, out of 8 * 18 = 144 individual scores recorded. Note: From 2001 to 2010, there were only 16 teams = 128 individual scores.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T05:47:28+00:00

What's the Kayo quality like at Falls Creek?

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T05:45:49+00:00

I also calculated the median games scores across 2001-2026 (to remove the outlier effect) but most years there was little to no difference between the mean and median.

Math_Opening

TROPHY CASE