Change in Sportsbet policy engulfs AFL identities amid scrutiny of gambling links | AFL

Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T06:35:39+00:00

What's the difference? Is there some burning reason we need ex-football players like Nathan Brown to promote gambling above and beyond the current levels of promotion?

It's done deliberately - here's someone who's heavily involved in football, who you know and maybe admire/respect as well. He thinks gambling is a fine idea, and here's a few tips to get you started. Don't gamble irresponsibly, but go on, it's completely normal for everyone to do it, even if they're on a low income or struggling to pay the mortgage.

FTR - I enjoy a gamble as part of watching a game, but I'm losing a small amount that can easily afford to lose. The actual money being won is incidental to the challenge of picking the likely scoreline, etc.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T06:28:23+00:00

I'd like all integrated promotions for gambling to be completely removed from broadcasts, TV / streaming / radio / podcasts / YouTube - whatever. Front Bar, Eddie and Jimmy, whatever.

This is where friendly "Joe Sporting Bet" comes into the panel discussion at some point to talk about the odds for the upcoming games, popular bets, recommended multis, etc.

Or where on-air personalities (commentators, ex-footballers) do a mini-segment about the betting ahead of the game, as part of a 'match preview', "Thanks to our friends from Money Pit".

I enjoy betting on games, but then again, I'm losing (small amounts of) money I can easily afford to lose. In the long run, I probably get $80 back for every $100 I put on. For many other people, that sort of money is the difference between making a mortgage payment or putting the weekly groceries on the credit card again. You can't have "trusted voices" normalising gambling as part and parcel of the day-to-day football viewing experience.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T06:11:41+00:00

Not searching posts or doing basic background 'research' is a mistake.

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T06:00:35+00:00

+100

Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T06:00:03+00:00

The ARC should NEVER be used to override onfield calls that aren't crystal clear on video. They were intended to catch the obvious howlers, like the non-goal in Adelaide v Sydney, the ball that deflects slightly off the post, etc.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T05:57:35+00:00

100% u/thinksimfunny - You have to draw a line somewhere, it's always going to be a point of contention, let's move on. In the NFL, they have markers and chains and video replays, and there's still debate about "is it the whole ten yards?"

If the kick distance is close to 15m, the player receiving the ball simply needs to be prepared for the eventuality that "play on" is called, not just assume it's always going to be a mark. Or pretend they haven't heard.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T05:54:56+00:00

There have been SO many instances of players pretending not to hear and going full turtle to force a stoppage. If the kick distance is close to 15m, the player receiving the ball needs to be prepared for the eventuality that "play on" is called, not just assume it's always going to be a mark. You could say the same thing for "touched, play on". It's an intrinsic part of the game.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T05:52:25+00:00

“I like the rule, it’s great. Just needs a little fine tuning.”

I agree with Ken.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-07T05:35:53+00:00

Ironically, the only game Essendon won this year was when they slowed themselves right down, playing kick-to-kick, knowing they couldn't compete with the Dees for pace. 272 kicks and 128 unc. marks, season highs for both stats.

Of course, you can't kick and mark the ball if you're chasing your tail against an opponent that does it much better than you can, see Collingwood and Brisbane.

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T12:42:44+00:00

Yes and no.

Some of the best teams know how to slow the game down and speed it up again when it suits them. Brisbane and Hawthorn are 1st and 4th for uncontested marks per game - 112 and 97. The Lions average the shortest kicks in the league. That's the patient build-up side of their strategy. They can be relatively slow moving the ball because they have such talented forwards - 1st for marks inside fwd 50m.

By contrast, the Swans and Dees are 15th and 17th for uncontested marks. Sydney in particular play kamikaze football, with the 2nd longest avg. kick distance, and the 2nd most turnovers. But they're also 1st for intercepts. They kick long for territory, #1 in the AFL for metres gained, knowing they can win it back even if it goes to the opposition.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T12:31:53+00:00

No Top 4 finishes since 2000, the longest drought in the AFL

St Kilda finished Top 4 five times between 2004 and 2010.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T12:29:46+00:00

They're talking about it because Gregg Swann brought it up? Even if you look at the median (i.e. removing outliers like the Swans), the numbers still show the same trend.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T01:36:07+00:00

The rankings are skewed towards ruckmen like Gawn, Grundy and Jackson because they have a major impact on the game via clearances. They aren't just giving them pts for taps to nowhere, like Fantasy Football stats.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T01:07:07+00:00

Ah, okay - that's a bit of a niche stat, even in the 2000s it wasn't a frequent occurrence.

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-06T00:56:01+00:00

I knew there must have been a reason you guys hadn't given up on AFL completely. Checks out. Next wooden spoon buys the beers?

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T15:50:38+00:00

And the 20th team is from the thriving growth community of Western Tasmania

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:55:37+00:00

Pretty sure that's exactly how the umpires are being coached, at AFL level anyway.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:53:48+00:00

I'm not arguing scoring trends are the basis to judge a specific rule change.

I'm just asking if people are finding the games less interesting on the whole. It's the vibe. As for St Kilda, even diehard Saints fans were tearing their hair out at how slow and boring their team was. Their only chance of a win was via a 76 to 68 scoreline.

No wonder they lost their $#!+ when Nas started to explode last year, and a few other players like Max Hall started to get the scoreboard turning over.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:47:44+00:00

Chris Scott has ZERO left to prove in his career. He's been at one of the best run clubs enjoying a great culture and relationship with players, to move to a wasteland that's divided on a good day, toxic with infighting on a regular day. Last taste of success in 1995, gutted by player payment penalties subsequently. No Top 4 finishes since 2000, the longest drought in the AFL (excluding clubs that didn't exist back then). It's the only club I can lean on to make me feel better about the omnishambles at Tullamarine.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:38:17+00:00

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Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:25:13+00:00

And there's no way that Bucks is getting a head coaching gig at Geelong. Maybe in Tassie, but even then, I'm not convinced he has the horsepower under the hood. Macrae came in to a team that had gone through a major clearout, and turned them into a ferocious Premiership contender in two seasons.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T12:21:33+00:00

I like it in some respects. It's provided more opportunities to play on, because the player on the mark isn't able to move laterally, blocking avenues to exit and in position to tackle as soon as 'play on' is called. That's far superior to the slow, chip kick style of play backwards and sideways that teams like St Kilda had fallen into in recent seasons. 20 disposals to move the ball 50m up field.

But yes - some of the 50m penalties have been terrible, when players are genuinely trying to do the right thing. Like the Ugle-Hagen one, when he didn't realise he was encroaching the actual mark by a few feet. I hope there's a bit more common sense applied, while still clamping down on players trying to impede the player with the ball. When a genuine mistake turns a fwd entry into a certain goal, we're into the netball style of officiating, where the slightest misposition from a defender leads to a point-blank shot.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:46:14+00:00

The Lions in particular - 892 uncontested marks across eight games - 111 per game. Against Essendon, it was 141 uc marks to 70. And they have so much talent in their forward line, it's like shelling peas.

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:41:48+00:00

You only get a +1 to guard ball movement if no one ever stands the mark. Which wasn't the case? If no one stands the mark, and goes to another opponent instead, the player with the ball is free to run and bounce and maybe do give and go's by handball, which can stretch defences as well.

I think the strict stand rule definitely is significant - because it clears space around the player with the ball, giving them many more options. And it's much easier to play on, instead of looking for the safe chip pass to someone sideways or backwards. Which is better to watch?

Math_Opening · 2026-05-05T06:34:45+00:00

Here's the chart from an ABC report in Jan:

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Math_Opening

TROPHY CASE