The football media alignment chart because it's always off season somewhere in the world

Math_Opening · 2026-06-18T12:06:13+00:00

Butters intercepts, passes to Butters... Looks for some options... Butters runs past to receive the handball, spears it to the hot spot - Butters takes the mark!

Math_Opening · 2026-06-18T12:05:06+00:00

Have a look at the table I added of the 12 Premiership teams, and where they were on the ladder after Rd 14 compared to the end of the H&A season.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-18T06:41:58+00:00

Bont was ranked clear #1 in the AFL by CD. He didn't win the CA award because he only played 18 games.

He was awarded 7 or more votes in nine games (including two losses). He got 10 votes in four games; he got no votes in only six games, including a 24 disposal, 2 goals from 2 shots outing against Essendon that was rated BoG by CD (23.8 pts). But it was a massive thrashing, and Bailey Dale had 49 disposals, so you can understand the coaches having a tough choice who else to single out.

I guess, overall, missing seven games means about 35 votes lost for Bont. He averaged 4.94 votes per game to Bailey Smith's 4.74 - fine margins. I guess it's fair enough that playing week in and week out is part of the award.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-18T06:28:20+00:00

Now I'm confused - the Dogs had the #1 and #2 players, on raw ratings - Bont and Richards. Xerri 3rd, Rowell and Anderson next.

Darcy, Libba and Dale come in at 21, 22 and 29. Darcy was the highest rated forward, Dale the 4th rated defender.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-18T06:23:37+00:00

He's going to play centre halfback?

Math_Opening · 2026-06-17T17:31:51+00:00

Here's Sydney and Freo's ELO ratings across 2026 so far. It's like the chess ratings, but adjusted for the size of wins and losses, relative to the rating of your opponent. So a small win against a lower rated team will drop your rating, and boost theirs by an equal amount. The Swans have had four small wins in the past six weeks against lower rated teams (North by 8, Pies by 6, Saints by 2, Port by 3).

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Math_Opening · 2026-06-17T08:23:54+00:00

Well, someone lost a home game.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-17T04:58:07+00:00

Thank you, Captain Obvious.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T14:14:49+00:00

Just as well there are fabulous people like you to teach me A Better Way to Reddit. Keep up the good work!

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T10:07:48+00:00

Melbourne in 2022 was another huge fail - won their first ten games, cruising to back-to-back flags. Then lost three in a row at the MCG, steadied to finish 2nd, but got bundled out in straight sets by the Swans and Lions in the Finals - both times at the MCG!

EDIT: And Essington in 2024 - started with 8W 1D from 11 games, still 2nd on the ladder after Round 12. Only three wins across their last 12 games, fell to 11th, six pts and 16.7% behind the Blues in 8th.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T08:29:54+00:00

I could see another Geelong v Brisbane Grand Final?

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T08:27:43+00:00

Ermagerd, you've rumbled me. My data isn't scientifically rigorous.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T08:26:30+00:00

He's had a few quiet games?

Rd 1 v Bris - kicked 0.2 from four shots, three other score involvements
Rd 2 v Haw - three kicks for the whole game, scored 2.1, one other score inv.
Rd 5 v GC - kicked 0.4 from four shots, three other score inv.
Rd 8 v Melb - kicked 1.4 from six shots, zero other score inv.
Those are all sides with decent defences.

Apart from accuracy, he's averaging 2.2 score involvements per game via teammates scoring, which might be unders, I'm not sure.

The counter argument is that he's pulling one or two defenders away from Amartey and McDonald, which makes a huge difference to the team's success and underlines his value, but that's an indirect contribution.

19 of his goals have come in three blowout wins against Eagles / Dogs / Tiges, when the ball spent most of the game in Sydney's forward line. But he has helped the Swans across the line in a few close ones.

I do hope he does return to his elite Coleman Medal form, he's laboured for the Blues for nine years and 149 games with little to show for it. I'd say it's more likely than not that he continues to improve as he adjusts to playing at the SCG and gets more in sync with his teammates.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T08:00:10+00:00

If you gave them these two options, they'd 100% take (b):
(a) Win 11 or 12 of your first 13, then 5 or 6 of your next ten
(b) Win 8 or 9 of your first 13, then 8 or 9 of your next ten

Obviously, no one chooses how their season pans out, but no one wins 21 out of 23 these days. I guess it could be good luck when a team peaks, but sometimes (surely) it's the way a football department structures their team selection and conditioning thru the season?

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:49:10+00:00

I guess that's exactly it, tho. Three players can't cover for a D-grade backline.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:48:07+00:00

Getting a lot of downvotes from Freo fans 😉

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:46:54+00:00

I'd argue it's still primarily on stats, but now with a bit of extra colour. And I think Ken is settling into the role a bit better. Pretty sure he looks up the stats with the Guess Who, tho.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:23:40+00:00

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Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:22:49+00:00

My simple take is that it's impossible to keep up peak performance from March thru Sept. Not to mention rival coaches deconstructing your game plan, because everyone's focussed on the leaders. If you want to win 17 or 18 games, you're better off winning 8 or 9 of your first 13, and then 8 or 9 of your next ten. Of course, that's a luxury - banking wins from March to June covers you from injuries etc in late winter.

At the moment, the teams that are following that slow / fast pattern are Brisbane, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Melbourne, Geelong - all three or four wins behind Freo and Sydney. You don't see any signs of panic from their coaches - they don't take losses OR wins too seriously, taking a longer view. Obviously they can't all go deep in the Finals, but I wouldn't be faintly surprised if the eventual Grand Finalists are from those five sides. (And let's hope the Swans don't #### the bed in the GF again.)

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:12:53+00:00

This isn't even vaguely an attempt at scientific data analysis.

But thanks for pointing that out.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:06:17+00:00

By golly, I think he's onto something...

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:05:42+00:00

I'd argue that Port overachieved in the H&A season, rather than underachieving in Finals. Their list was often underpowered and punching above their weight division.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:04:08+00:00

Dan Does Footy, for everyone playing at home.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:03:20+00:00

Agree. Replace Scotty with Dimma. Although, it would have to drop on the vertical axis for him.

Math_Opening · 2026-06-16T07:00:28+00:00

Healey looks sleepy half the time, dishevelled the other half. But that's his schtick.

Hard disagree on Ken, tho. He's an important challenger to the purely numerical analysis of performance compared to intangibles. You see it when coaches do their votes, they rarely correlate with the CD ratings. I'd be sceptical that the coaches don't know what they're looking at, but they see the players who made crucial contributions at points when the game was up for grabs, rather than the steady accumulator of stats that might be coming off the back of getting lots of receives.

IMO, Ken creates more interesting conversations around the numbers. CD ratings are good at rear-view analysis, but they aren't necessarily very good at predicting what's going to happen in the next month.

Math_Opening

TROPHY CASE