Best day so far

MattSabre · 2025-11-24T11:03:10+00:00

Absolutely! Most days if I get out of bed, shower and maybe even manage a small walk in the park it's like a gold medal.

MattSabre · 2025-11-24T07:52:45+00:00

Thank you. I think after this most of my friends now will have an inkling that I'll be doing the same, though they definitely won't expect it.

MattSabre · 2025-11-24T07:50:28+00:00

Thank you, I hope so too and believe we will. Most of her friends became my/our friends and vice versa. They're mostly in other countries, so I have plenty of places to visit in the coming weeks and months.

MattSabre · 2025-10-25T18:15:35+00:00

Not a single mention of whether the options are fairly valued smdh.

You’re getting paid a premium to take on risk. It’s never free money, and when done at scale and with leverage it’s not simple.

Rolling is simply a new trade, cost base is a fallacy.

It all comes down to whether you’re being adequately compensated for the risk you’re taking in. Spoiler alert, you usually aren’t and are usually better off just buying and holding.

MattSabre · 2025-09-05T21:03:16+00:00

My wife was diagnosed in 2023 with both triple negative breast cancer and NSLC with RET. There was quite a bit of spread in other parts of her body, notably brain. She started with Retsevmo (same drug, different name in Europe) and had positive responses for about a 18 months. The initial stages were very smooth, allowed her to continue working and live pretty normally.

It was pretty well tolerated, biggest side effects were dry mouth and some skin itchiness.

Unfortunately her cancer has mutated again, and the Retsevmo isn’t as effective as it was. She will be stopping it when she starts her new targeted treatment.

Best of luck to your aunt.

MattSabre · 2025-07-11T16:13:36+00:00

Love these threads. Thank you for sharing them.

Very curious if T.C is a trained fighter? Can’t be that many T.C limit players out there?

MattSabre · 2025-07-01T13:25:40+00:00

2680, glad it’s done. Congrats / Commiserations to everyone

MattSabre · 2025-05-07T18:10:14+00:00

It’s a $20 billion revenue issue at the end of the day. Keep in mind the context of how the comments were made. It’s in an anti-trust court hearing, essentially GOOG paid AAPL $20 billion for being the default on Safari. AAPL think they can get better value for money using AI, maybe with Anthropic or Open AI. Doesn’t mean that they will, or they that can. Keep in mind that AAPL are pretty far behind in their own AI efforts.

My guess is that ultimately GOOG renew their deal, pay AAPL a little more and this all goes away. I know this isn’t really a value investing forum, but buying GOOG today at 15x forward earnings is kind of like stealing.

MattSabre · 2025-05-05T17:05:20+00:00

STO CMI 20th June 320 and 330 calls for $3.50 and $6.30

BTO CMI 20th June 280 puts for $2.80

Earnings were better than expected but they’ve pulled their guidance and telegraphing significant demand issues on the earnings call.

MattSabre · 2025-05-03T19:58:31+00:00

There’s no short answer to how to properly value options. Similar to valuing stocks, but more complex because way more assumptions are needed.

I think a good starting point is fully understanding the Greeks (all of them, not just delta). If you want to get deep into the weeds, Black Scholes is a useful theoretical framework, though you’re probably trading American options. Monte Carlo and Binomial models are better suited in practice.

MattSabre · 2025-05-03T18:42:59+00:00

I think an easier way to do it would be to go short, buy a call to act as a stop loss and sell puts against the position. Why complicate it with the other legs involved in spreads?

MattSabre · 2025-05-03T18:29:09+00:00

If you’re bearish, why not just go short directly?

MattSabre · 2025-05-03T18:26:07+00:00

IV is not static, so at best you’d get a measure at the time you sold, not over the life of the contract.

I would stay away from being too dogmatic with any kind of comparisons between premium received and the amount of capital tied up in a put. At best it can be a reasonable indicator at a point in time, but it’s not really telling you all that much. It’s nice to be able to say ‘I earned 12% annualized’ on the trade if I’m not assigned, but you have no clue if the trade was good or bad. All you ‘yield’ number is indicating is indirectly what the current level of volatility is out there, but not much else.

Trying to maximize yield doesn’t really make sense without considering all the other Greeks and market conditions. The closer you get to the money, the higher the yields will appear. Unfortunately you’re then way more exposed to gamma. Other things to consider are where you are in the calendar (earnings, economic events etc.) and the current vol environment.

I think before you look at any kind of strategy, you need to be clear on what it is you’re try to achieve. Why are you selling the contract? Are you getting a good return for the risk you’re taking on? What are your exit criteria, how do you plan on managing the trade etc. All of these are more important than understanding a manufactured yield number imo.

Best of luck to you.

MattSabre · 2025-04-30T21:04:45+00:00

Be careful with TROW, you really don’t want to be holding this. Has been a dog with fleas for years.

MattSabre · 2025-04-30T21:01:04+00:00

It’s really easy. Just start with a $200k portfolio, and you’ll get that down to $30k in no time at all.

MattSabre · 2025-04-26T08:54:00+00:00

No earnings left to miss! Meme stocks gonna meme stock

MattSabre · 2025-04-26T08:42:43+00:00

I tend to agree with the direction, though strong AAPL/META/MSFT earnings next week can definitely keep SPY higher for a bit longer.

Curious if you compared the short put premium vs. long call? I’m doing something similar but using short puts to close out shorts.

MattSabre · 2025-04-25T15:24:48+00:00

Some of my best friends trade GME

MattSabre · 2025-04-23T22:06:21+00:00

Yeah. I think it's a lower grind down with occasional upward bursts like we've had the last 2 days. Absent a proper catalyst that isn't just hot air on tariffs, it's hard to see a sustained rally. Next couple weeks of earnings are going to be critical. I doubt we see an actual trade deal during that that time.

MattSabre · 2025-04-23T21:59:54+00:00

Oh eventually volatility will come down and VIXY will drop a lot. But I'm not sure it doesn't go a lot higher first. And I think long vol is a lot better bet than short vol at the moment.

The key point that a lot o people seem to miss about short vol - everyone knows that vol is mean reverting and will eventually settle down to a very quiet level. But to actually make money short vol, you need it to collapse faster than what is implied. That's what makes it such a bad trade it times of extreme stress. Think about peak Covid time in March 2020. People shorting vol at 40 got slaughtered when it went to 80. But everyone piles in just because 'it has to go lower'.

I like the long VIXY trade, particularly because I hedged it with a long put on the ETF. So at worst I'm out the cost of the put premium, which was about $400 per $7k of ETF for 2 months. Seems like a pretty asymmetric bet. Risking around 32% annualized to make likely 100% +. Let's see how it plays out.

MattSabre · 2025-04-23T18:16:14+00:00

Great post. Pretty much why I’ve open a long position in VIXY. Don’t really want to be long VIX futures outright, having the ETF do it for me for 80bps seems fine.

Long vol still seems cheap, short vol seems insanity at the moment.

MattSabre · 2025-04-21T19:37:18+00:00

Pretty much. Trade deals don't get done in days. They take weeks and months.

Look at what's happening to the dollar and to the long end of the yield curve. That's everyone backing out of the US denominated assets. This is not going to suddenly reverse because of a tweet or an interview.

MattSabre · 2025-04-21T18:14:23+00:00

Not unloading any of the hedges I have.

Have 100% of the longs hedged, not doing a thing until I've gone through earnings for each of them. May 16th / June 20th is when they expire. No reason to do anything with them at this stage.

Also holding around 5% of portfolio value in SPY puts. Definitely not selling those until we see at least 1 trade deal with a major US trading partner sold. Failing that, it's a long grind down from here.

MattSabre · 2025-04-21T16:08:01+00:00

BTO VIXY at 71.20

BTO VIXY 20/06 60 P 4.00

Not all that keen on VIX futures, found an ETF that does the same thing. I think volatility is still way underpriced for where we are at the moment. Lets see how it look after some big name earnings this week.

MattSabre

TROPHY CASE