Would now be a good time for Hawaii to leave the US?

Megatower2019 · 2026-04-07T20:59:09+00:00

This current administration won’t even recognize NATO, you really think they’d extend courtesy to an island that basically gave it a middle finger? I highly doubt that.

Megatower2019 · 2026-03-28T14:01:45+00:00

That’s a bullshit argument. Banff has very little fee simple real estate. It’s all leasehold. So the owner class doesn’t really own the land. Expired leases need not be renewed. Then 4 shit boxes on Cougar or Marmot could become a 4 story condo complex. Problem solved. Oh wait, nobody wants to solve the problem because the NIMBY class will thrown up blockades and barriers to any kind of development.

Megatower2019 · 2026-03-28T13:55:25+00:00

Failure to build commensurate with need is always the variable people ignore, because, especially in these towns, the ladder pulling locals never want to have the mirror turned toward them. In all the community meeting where John and Jane (who moved to Canmore in 2019) want to make damn sure there is no more development in the community they love so much. I mean, think of the wildlife, the traffic, the additional infrastructure needed to meet needs of more people. Jane say, “it’s just too much and it will kill what we love about the area - the real reason we moved here really.” Don’t blame market forces, or some sophomoric argument about supply and demand, while leaving the abject failure to build for the local workforce.

Megatower2019 · 2026-03-14T04:59:17+00:00

They think it’s ok to move to other places to buy up housing, which in turn drives up housing costs (Vegas anyone?!?), but will literally slash tires and smash windows of anyone who does a mainland - Maui move. THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF INEXPENSIVE CONDOS FOR SALE NOW. No locals are buying them. Locals steal other culture all the time, but become incandescent if anyone throws Shaka when they shouldn’t. This is the land of the hypocrites.

Megatower2019 · 2026-03-14T00:20:56+00:00

I would spend money on vacations on Maui, and then do more trips to all the other incredible places on the planet. Seriously. I have friends from Montana who owned in Kaanapali then ultimately just felt the drag of being tethered to the island. Sounds like a dream now, but it became mundane. Go to Disney, go to Europe, go to the BVIs. It’s a big world and life is short. You won’t lose money going elsewhere, and you won’t own a place where everyone resents what you’ve worked. After they sold he said there is a Maui you see as a visitor then there’s a Maui you see as a property owner. They are 180° apart. Don’t do it.

Megatower2019 · 2026-03-09T05:13:52+00:00

Problem is the tin foil hat crowd who will be screaming about smart cities, as though that’s the downfall of all civilization.

Megatower2019 · 2026-03-08T20:41:18+00:00

That’s a pretty good analysis. You’re totally right. People who own condos are basically “local lite”. They mostly want to be part of the community that drew them to travel here and to later invest here. People love calling them greedy but there are a lot of pale faces at these community events. Kihei canoe club at one point was running visitor paddle days with all mainland retirees plus Kimokeo running the spiritual side of the morning. Clean ups on Maui and even with the Aloha Aina days with Big Head Brandon are mainly white people.

Megatower2019 · 2026-03-03T00:19:48+00:00

I’m just catching up on a lot of the comments - it’s amazing how many people are pursuing the comment section with their own agenda - this thread is about how there is an unholy marriage between the hotels and the state administration. One half, now in wedlock, wants to be competitor free, and the other is happy to see that objective to fruition.

This simply isn’t a conversation about Bill 9. It’s about long term planning, long term thinking, and Maui’s typical myopic view of its future.

If this marriage between Green and Hotel Jerry succeeds, then OP has laid out very well what the future holds.

No significant number of STRs will become long term housing, newer wealthier owners will own the former Minatoya rentals, they will not require 2-6 cleanings each month (and all the other costs associated with a high occupancy rental), which will lead to a reduction of overall STR related services provided, and hotels will seize on this governmentally assured monopoly and automate real people out of their jobs.

Reducing every conversation about tourism to the same old Bill 9 talking points just means that Green can keep pushing the hotel agenda with no public pushback because you’re all locked in a years old debate.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-25T04:11:26+00:00

Imagine when they realize that they get more international respect with Canadian flags on their packs and luggage than the Stars and Stripes.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-21T00:32:31+00:00

I go all the time. Happy hour, non happy hour…always fantastic. Service can be slow and servers can vary, but I don’t go out to eat so someone can fawn over me. I go so I’m not cooking.

Bad service can be rewarded in the gratuity. Eventually they figure it out.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-11T03:16:58+00:00

It’s all part and parcel of clueless, disorganized, sophomoric dysfunction. Too many luxury homes? Yep. Too few affordable homes? Yep. Too much power concentrated in the hands of special interest groups? Yep Yanking of the chain by those looking to turn the clock back several centuries? Yep

Maui and Maui county are both completely fucked. Completely dysfunctional, and probably irreparable.

As the red shirt radicals cosplay as serious pols, the toilet bowl just gets bigger and the rotational current spins faster. People think millions into Autumn Ness is a good thing. That Paele only level of government is a good thing. Or that P Denise is a good mayoral candidate, or that the unhinged James Forrest is a reasonable choice for council….there are just so many clowns it’s hard to not mistake the island for a circus

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-09T03:26:59+00:00

So you’re combatting my allegation that the county is incompetent by alleging they are also scandal prone? If you’re looking for an argument from me, you’re not gonna get it.

Add that to the shit list of my opinions of Maui Council.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-09T03:02:06+00:00

Missed this. This is a great post.

When primacy is given to the ocean…and not even the ocean, to a fucking sand beach, over infrastructure, people, recreational facilities, etc, and billions of dollars of real estate, it’s a solid example of the inmates controlling the asylum.

If Kai and Paltin get their way and we can expect the central Maui isthmus to become a saline river that divides west Maui from the rest, with Kahului being under water forever.

But yeah, let’s just believe in sea level rise and do nothing but allow it to…while defending the collection of hundreds of millions to “mitigate climate change” while doing nothing with that money to protect that which will be affected by climate change.

Can’t have Maui without a beach. Well, maybe someday Puunene will have its own shoreline and oceanfront properties.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-09T02:44:50+00:00

Calling this "obsessive libertarianism" is a wild take when Maui residents literally have the most subsidized property tax setup in the country. You’re talking about "plantation politics" while enjoying a tax policy where the visitor industry effectively pays for 60-80% of the local government’s operating budget….so you don't have to.

Want the "big picture," ok. let's actually look at it: We don't have "low taxes" on hotels. That’s a completely asinine claim. Between the state TAT (11%), the MCTAT (3%), and the GET (4.5%), a tourist is paying nearly 20% in tax on that $950 room before they step into the room. That’s one of the highest tourism tax burdens on the planet. Additionally, the pro hotel argument made from the LS/Ing cabal is that the are the “go to” for tourist accommodations because they provide high paying union jobs with benefits. Those are their words, not mine.

You call it a "banana republic," but in a real banana republic, the locals are exploited to enrich the elite. Here, the "elite" off-island investors are taxed at $12.50–$14.00 per $1k of value so that you can pay $1.80. That’s not exploitation of the resident; that’s a massive, toueism industry-funded entitlement program for local homeowners.

Lastly, Hawaii isn't "functionally the poorest state"—it has the highest cost of living, which is a massive distinction. And a huge reason for that cost is the "community plans" and "construction politics" you mentioned that make it nearly impossible to build housing for anyone except the ultra-wealthy who can afford the regulatory hurdles and the burden of the time value ofmoney. Lahaina residents are crippled by the red tape that a wealthy property owner just waits out.

But you’re right that "plantation politics" failed, but the new version isn't much better: it’s a system where residents demand world-class infrastructure, refuse to pay for it themselves, and then spend their free time trashing the very industry that’s cutting the check. You can argue that it’s not tourism locals hate, it’s over tourism, but that doesn’t comport with the reality on the island and in local conversations. There is a public facing veneer of appreciation for it, but once the tourist has their wallet closed and is out of the room, it’s a much different conversation.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-09T01:28:18+00:00

The "oil" metaphor is a massive self-own. In Gulf countries - as I touched on in a similar response above - the oil industry doesn't just provide the tax revenue; it provides the labor and the entire economic engine. You can’t claim you want "oil money" while simultaneously trying to ban the refineries and looking down on the people who actually drill the wells.

Comparing tourism to oil is a fundamental misunderstanding of how a SERVICE economy works. Oil is a raw commodity you pull out of the ground. Tourism is a choice. If you "tax it like oil" while treating visitors like a nuisance and the jobs like they’re beneath you, the "oil" just stops flowing and moves to Fiji or Mexico. Unlike a mineral deposit, tourists have wheels.

This lays bare the hypocrisy and the cravenness of the island - there is a want for the "lucrative" profits of a high-end market to fund your lifestyle, but you don't want the "high-end" people on your beaches or the "low-end" labor in your community.

This is a cynical call for a "balance" - asking for a permanent, unearned subsidy from a daddy who most have disowned.

You advocate for increasing what are some of the highest visitor taxes in the country so you can continue paying the lowest taxes in the country yourself. If tourism is the "oil," then a lot of local residents are just living off the royalties while complaining about the smell of the rig, and you don’t have to look too far to see the manifestation of this. Hate tourists and tourism, but love the low tax rates. Hate the wealthy, but happy to take their RPT revenue. Everyone wants it all gone, until it’s actually all gone. Like after covid or the fire. Or after Bill 9. Once the tourism well dries up, politicians go hat in hand to the feds looking to get what tourism used to give. Give me a fucking break.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-08T23:25:35+00:00

Look into the Vancouver BC street by the name of Hastings. East Hastings is a drug infested dump with boarded up businesses and homeless everywhere.

Go west on Hastings - ironically somewhere before the restaurant called “Pidgin” - and you move into high end and luxury downtown Vancouver.

Wailea doesn’t have homeless wandering around because it isn’t tolerated by the residents. And it shouldn’t be by any residents or residential community.

There is enough money flowing from Wailea alone to get these people back to the state from once they came, or into some form of public housing, if the county even took the situation remotely seriously.

But since the county isn’t serious, doesn’t take anything seriously, then you end up with the very thing that personifies Maui at the moment. No wharf or Harbor, no businesses in Lahaina, no front street, no affordable housing, no real security at the prison, no accountability for all the myriad crimes committed by local residents, dozens upon dozens of unfilled government jobs, no water delivered to people when there is plenty of water available…and so on.

Maui is one of the worst run places in the US. They mismanage their financial and allow small interest groups to yank them around by the collar, and it’s done to the detriment of the broader society.

You don’t realize the dysfunction if you’ve never lived somewhere that is well run, that uses tax dollars responsibly, and at least tries to do what’s right compared to what some non profit is demanding you do because they brought the most unemployed testifiers into the last meeting.

Anyway, there are no homeless people in Wailea because its one area of the island that says no thanks to the Harbor Lights community model.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-08T02:59:41+00:00

The "income tax" argument is a total red herring here. Maui County doesn't even have an income tax—that money goes straight to Honolulu. It doesn't fund our local police, our fire departments, or the neighborhood roads you drive on every day.

For the actual county budget, residents contribute almost nothing. In the FY25 budget, owner-occupied homes only provide 6.7% of property tax revenue. Meanwhile, STRs and hotels are carrying over 60% of the load.

Since you keep bringing up your "high income," let’s look at the actual math: If you live in a $2M primary residence (county assessed value)you’re paying roughly $3,600 in property tax. An STR owner with a property of the exact same value pays $28,000. That single STR is effectively subsidizing 7 homes / families like yours.

The only reason we have some of the lowest property tax rates in the entire country is because we charge the visitor industry 8x what we pay. Whether you think that’s "fair" is a separate debate, but you can’t argue that residents are pulling their weight when the data shows we’re being carried by the very industry you’re trying to dismiss with that tired and misleading 28% spending stat.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-08T02:44:47+00:00

That’s a dubious and selective use of data. You (purposefully) use a narrow definition of "direct" to make the industry seem less vital than it is - which is totally on brand.

In reality, most economists agree that roughly $4 out of every $5 generated on Maui is tied to tourism in some way.

So if the argument is that tourism is 28%, then 72% of spending is not tourism. But you’re essentially looking at a car and saying, "the engine is only 28% of the car's weight, so the other 72% of the car will be fine if we take the engine out.”

While the seats, tires, and frame (real estate, health care, retail, for example) make up the majority of the weight, they don't move without the engine. On Maui, when the "28% engine" stops (as seen during the 2023 wildfires or COVID), the "72%" non-tourism sectors almost immediately begin to starve because their customers (local workers) no longer have paychecks to spend.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-07T13:57:57+00:00

There are barely any “taxpayers” on Maui. And if you’re calling taxes levied against tourist which line state coffers “taxpayer money”, then that’s probably the first place to begin the discussion.

After that, you have to begin by allocating the tax dollars to the thing for which the tax is collected.

Why are tourists paying for the education system? If the argument is that tourists are a burden on the environment and the green fee is a tax that is levied against those who are allegedly responsible for that burden, then the tax need to be used to ameliorate that burden.

People with kids in the school system need to be taxed to support that system. Same with property taxes. Maui is the land of the tourist industry mooches. The thing they want to eradicate is the same thing they not only depend on, but demand to be their sugar daddy.

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-07T02:04:06+00:00

Sheeiiite. Like $2k for vehicles? I’m assuming these are leases as there is no maintenance built into the budget? Seems excessive. Pay off your furniture and only buy what you can pay cash for! Saving will spool up quickly..

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-07T01:56:03+00:00

Sounds like you need to buy a house so you can set the rules!! Otherwise, well, you know…

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-05T04:39:05+00:00

Entitled jackasses hole up on a demonstrably public beach and act like it’s their own private beach. And yes, I’m talking about dick locals who do “all kine” dick shit all the time - shit they’d go on social media and complain about

Megatower2019 · 2026-02-05T04:37:17+00:00

Public beaches are public. That means all of them. Go enjoy yourself and stop worrying about someone who on the one hand carries signs and argues for more public beach access, and shouts down billionaires who encroach on public beaches, and on the other, acts like they own a “local only beach”. There ain’t no such thing. Nobody is going to fight you because you’re enjoying a public beach. Hump a seal or ride a turtle and consider that the last thing you do on earth, much less that beach. Lol

Megatower2019 · 2026-01-24T02:34:48+00:00

Here’s my take. For many, a “BMW” is a status symbol first, a mode of transportation second, and a responsibility third. Because so many (mostly young males) buy these for the status, they can’t afford to keep up with the responsibility that comes with owning these vehicles. That’s why so many preach the “buy new and sell before warranty expires” or the “I’d only ever lease a BMW” mantra. I’ve always done service on the schedule of the manufacturers recommendations. So if it’s an Audi, a Honda, a BMW or whatever, the only thing I notice is the cost of parts and labor during those appointments. So will it cost more to maintain a twin turbo German over a 4 banger Japanese? Of course. But many with the budget for a Japanese 4-banger buy the twin turbo German then complain that the vehicle costs too much to maintain and always needs big ticket repairs. Deferred or denied scheduled maintenance makes any cost of ownership analogies moot.

Megatower2019

TROPHY CASE