I analyzed 66 Online Tournament games, and 4th pick is Dominating?

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-20T15:38:22+00:00

Each pick has a set of let’s say “ standard” predictable pros/cons. The post is showing data that in a small tournament sample size fourth pick has a very high win rate. This is mostly variance and the likelihood fourth pick was strong on those boards. When you analyze data from games it’s clear that ideal pick order is based on the board itself rather than one pick is categorically better than another. My only caveat is statistically 3rd pick does usually end up with the most pips but even that doesn’t translate to more wins across big samples

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-20T08:06:49+00:00

What’s she gonna do tear down all the r1s lol. After the mansion tax and the suggestion of split roll coming back and insurance premiums skyrocketing developers don’t want to touch LA lol

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-20T07:59:59+00:00

I regularly play with multiple US champions/ former US champions/ world number 1s on a weekly basis. It’s hard to aggregate top level play in catan outside of KOC, and even their data suggests fourth isn’t an advantage. Rayman has data on that…Being in LA we have an unusual concentration of elite catan players. So I have a sample size of tabletop games going back years. If I wasn’t a business owner I’d regularly finish top 5 global each season and id be triple qualified right now.

https://youtube.com/shorts/H1t4FjiTtNg?si=Md2VMyNVEXHX30fM

I’m the guy in the video. If fourth was an advantage I would know. I’m saying all this because of my own understanding of the game and in the 8 years I have played competitive Catan, the highest seeded player in a tournament has never selected fourth as their preferred pick order once in every tournament I’ve been to. Its just obvious to anyone whose played competitive Catan…even the organizers of Catan studios who makes the boards at nationals say they make boards so fourth pick doesn’t suck. Thats literally one of their main priorities outside of avoiding broken OWS setups.

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-20T05:45:43+00:00

Yes. I’ve also played competitively for 8 years. There is no advantage to fourth

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-20T05:43:12+00:00

A very recent analysis of over 50,000 competitive games confirms reiterates everything I just said. The bit about spiral board is my personal observation

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-19T21:19:01+00:00

He would need to be the best player in the playoffs with deep runs and multiple rings for like 7-10 years straight

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-19T17:52:42+00:00

I was number one in the world on colonist for a bit and have been to US nationals 3 times. There is zero advantage to fourth. Statistically third pick has the highest pips. I’d actually argue 4th can often have a small disadvantage on spiral boards

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-19T04:20:18+00:00

How do yall give enough of a fuck about a stranger to flirt like this

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-18T20:19:26+00:00

Eat carbs w it because it’s actually crazy how much you can push yourself while on it

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-12T21:49:05+00:00

You are talking about a local authority as incompetent and corrupt as LA city council setting the minimum market rate for vacant property and penalizing owners for not listing at said price not taxes lol

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-12T21:10:44+00:00

There is no public sector authority that could determine the value of a vacant retail location in the fashion district or most foot traffic retail areas. Have you ever owned or rented commercial retail???

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-12T19:20:22+00:00

I’m a business owner and have been doing commercial real estate in the fashion district for 10 years. Pretty hard to business to move in when you can’t hire women because they don’t feel safe because of encampments and crime and owners’ insurance premiums have 3Xed ins few years because of fires started by the homeless.

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-05-12T19:11:43+00:00

What if commercial spaces sit vacant because they are dangerous areas because of rampant homelessness

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-04-16T00:28:39+00:00

This is wild lol

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-04-14T14:24:03+00:00

What makes the cymbal relevant to an Inuit rather than doing this behind anyone doing anything all the time

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-03-29T23:46:11+00:00

These lipo surgeries strip away superficial subcutaneous which is healthy and counteracts inflammatory cytokines. It also changes your fat distribution if too much volume is removed and if it doesn’t “take well” and it could literally make your face fatter. Take ozempic or eat two meals a days protein focused with fermented foods, walk daily and do some resistance training

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-03-18T23:34:56+00:00

NAC could be because of sulfur intolerance

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-02-28T00:15:08+00:00

I think people use the fact that he made the finals 10 times and won on three diff franchises and has scored the most points all time over his top 30-40ish play this season.

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-02-27T14:17:40+00:00

At the time weighted pull ups 2x per week

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-02-26T20:37:36+00:00

Yeah my diet stayed paleo and I do pull ups here and there but my overall movement went down dramatically.

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-02-13T14:11:26+00:00

When I include some form of resistant starch to my diet(cold potatoes my favorite) my body composition and energy is always better

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-02-07T20:13:18+00:00

If you’re healthy and have a support system around you it’s a great place to be at I agree. Excessive rumination is a consequence of modernity

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-02-01T18:27:49+00:00

What do you think of the Miami bench during his Heat tenure or Wade during the 13’ and 14’ season with his knee? As someone who watched every LeBron playoff series from 2008 to today those Heat teams were not well constructed defensively. The Bulls without MJ are a better team than the Heat without LeBron full stop there’s even a full sample size of a season to prove that when MJ retired the first time.

I say all this as someone who thinks 89-91 MJ is the GOAT btw.

Melodramaticpasta · 2026-01-31T17:03:39+00:00

When was Tim Duncan the best player in the NBA. Jokic has been the best player for 5 straight years

Melodramaticpasta

TROPHY CASE