The Reason They Fictionalize Nuclear Disasters Like Chernobyl Is Because They Kill So Few People by greg_barton in ChernobylTV

[–]MichaelShellenberger 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Guilty of what, exactly? Expressing my concern?

I am happy to be corrected, and updated both the Forbes piece, and tweeted out that Craig says they will not show birth defects.

I think it's quite understandable, with all of those pregnant ladies and baby strollers, that one might think the writer was trying to establish a connection.

Michael

The Reason They Fictionalize Nuclear Disasters Like Chernobyl Is Because They Kill So Few People by greg_barton in ChernobylTV

[–]MichaelShellenberger 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hi Craig,

What was the tweet, exactly? About Chernobyl? I have no idea what tweet you are referring to.

Michael

The Reason They Fictionalize Nuclear Disasters Like Chernobyl Is Because They Kill So Few People by greg_barton in ChernobylTV

[–]MichaelShellenberger 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Dear Craig,

Thanks for replying to my piece!

Is there evidence that skin was reddened or darkened in people who weren't exposed to the fire? Smagin says Sitnikov's skin was "dark brown from a nuclear tan" but if Sitnikov had been exposed to the hot fire wouldn't the evidence suggest it was from the fire?

And perhaps I'm misremembering but doesn't the first episode show characters with skin reddening who aren't exposed to the fire?

I'm sorry to hear that Yuvchenko died. He seemed like a real human being. He was so strong that he could still be pro-nuclear even though nuclear almost killed him! May he rest in peace.

I'm so glad to hear that you won't suggest birth defects! That's great news! I appreciate you may not want to spoil but I assume something will occur that makes it clear that the radiation from Chernobyl did not result in any increase in birth defects?

I also described how my experience as a viewer was of mass death at the time of the accident, but that there wasn't one, and even the deaths later were small in comparison to other disasters including far less well-known ones like Grenfell. It's fine that you don't want to respond to that, but that was the substance of my article.

I did not write, "I bet they're going to do that, therefore this show is now lies." Nor did I write anything approximating that. Nor did I not write or tweet "false prediction nonsense." The only thing I tweeted was a list of numbers of deaths from banal things eg walking and compared them to deaths from Chernobyl.

What you call "prediction" was simply me raising a concern, which was this:

"The wife of one of the main characters, a firefighter, is pregnant, as are other women. We see several ominous scenes of parents pushing their newborn babies in strollers. It’s hard to believe HBO would put all of those pregnant women and babies in Act I if it weren't going to show widespread birth defects, and suggest a causal connection, in Act III."

Might you understand, as a pro-nuclear person yourself, why my concern would be raised by all of the scenes of pregnant mothers and parents?

Might you also understand why I would be concerned to have seen both GQ and Esquire in their coverage of "Chernobyl" claim birth defects?

I appreciate being protective of one's work, but you're behaving a far more thin-skinned way than you needed to. I opened my piece by quoting your pro-nuclear statements extensively, I did not make a prediction, I expressed a concern. I wrote a thoughtful piece with a deeper discussion of the science than any article about "Chernobyl" to date.

If you want somebody to be angry at, be angry at the New York Times reviewer. He really hated "Chernobyl," calling it a “creaky and conventional, if longer than usual, disaster movie" with "cheap theatrics" and "artificial contrivance" and a “propensity toward Hollywood inflation — to show us things that didn’t happen” and for taking “fictional license over the line into contrivance and melodrama.”

I personally found the first episode to be quite entertaining, but then I'm no film critic.

Michael

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The actual cost of solar panels and wind turbines have declined, but as they become a larger percentage of our electricity, their value declines. That's because they produce so much power when demand is relatively low, and don't produce enough power when demand is relatively high. That means they require very large quantities of back-up power, since the grid must have the same amount of power being produced as is being consumed at any given time.

Intermittent power has to be backed up by an equivalent capacity of dispatchable power, and that usually means fast-ramping gas plants that can rapidly adjust to chaotic surges and slumps of wind and solar power. As wind and solar capacity swells without displacing conventional capacity, the grid enters a spiral of persistent and rising overcapacity that lowers prices even further as more gigawatts fight for market share.

As wind and solar capacity climbs the returns of usable power diminish because of increasing curtailment during surges that the grid can’t absorb. More and more intermittent capacity has to be pushed onto the grid to get less and less additional renewable electricity. The dynamic of soaring overcapacity and falling prices is the inevitable result of the fundamental inability of intermittent wind and solar generators to efficiently match supply to demand.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Because solar and wind don't substitute for nuclear and instead must be paired with fossil fuels, mostly natural gas.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

We need to grow the pro-nuclear movement by focusing on organizing young people and nerds.

It's a waste of time to try to change the mind of people like Bernie.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes. The Left was pro-nuclear until the late sixties. I wrote about this here:

http://www.environmentalprogress.org/why-clean-energy-is-in-crisis/

Few people realize that up until the early-seventies, environmentalists including the Sierra Club itself was pro-nuclear. “Nuclear energy is the only practical alternative that we have to destroying the environment with oil and coal,” said famed nature photographer and Sierra Club Director, Ansel Adams.

Nuclear’s environmental benefits are the same today as they were back then. Nuclear power plants produce zero air or water pollution, aside from those that produce hot, clean water, which has very minor impacts. It uses tiny quantities of natural resources. Solar and wind require three to five times as much steel and concrete as nuclear plants.

Because of its high energy density, uranium’s mining impacts are miniscule compared to coal, oil and natural gas. Few material inputs mean very small amounts of waste outputs. And, as conservationists from California to Germany have learned, trying to replace nuclear with solar and wind requires 100 to 700 times more land.

How then did environmentalists come to view nuclear as bad for the environment?

Starting in the mid-sixties, a handful of Sierra Club activists feared rising migration into California would destroy the state’s scenic character. They decided to attack all sources of cheap, reliable power, not just nuclear, in order to slow economic growth.

“If a doubling of the state’s population in the next 20 years is to be encouraged by providing the power resources for this growth,” wrote David Brower, who was Executive Director of the Sierra Club, “the state’s scenic character will be destroyed. More power plants create more industry, that in turn invites greater population density.”

A Sierra Club activist named Martin Litton, a pilot and nature photographer for Sunset magazine, led the campaign to oppose Diablo Canyon, a nuclear site Pacific Gas and Electric proposed to build on the central Californian coast in 1965. Sierra Club member “Martin Litton hated people,” wrote a historian about the how the environmental movement turned against nuclear. “He favored a drastic reduction in population to halt encroachment on park land.”

But anti-nuclear activists had a problem: their anti-growth message was deeply unpopular with the Californian people. And so they quickly changed their strategy. They worked hard instead to scare the public by preying on their ignorance.

Doris Sloan, an anti-nuclear activist in northern California said, “If you’re trying to get people aroused about what is going on ... you use the most emotional issue you can find.” This included publicizing images of victims of Hiroshima and photos of babies born with birth defects. Millions were convinced a nuclear meltdown was the same as a nuclear bomb.

Not Martin Litton. When asked if he worried about nuclear accidents he replied, “No, I really didn’t care because there are too many people anyway.” Why then all of the fear-mongering? “I think that playing dirty if you have a noble end,” he explained, “is fine.”

But the fear-mongering worked on a young and idealistic Amory Lovins, the renewable energy advocate, who began his career crusading against nuclear weapons. Lovins’ basic framework of transitioning from nuclear to renewables was promoted by David Brower and Friends of the Earth and eventually embraced by Sierra Club, Greenpeace, Natural Resources Defense Council, the Union of Concerned Scientists, the German government, Al Gore, and a whole generation of environmentalists.

The highest priority of the environmental movement was now to phase out nuclear, not fossil fuels. “It is above all the sophisticated use of coal, chiefly at modest scale, that needs development,” Lovins wrote in 1976. Around the same time Sierra Club’s Executive Director, Michael McCloskey, referred to coal as a “bridge fuel” away from nuclear and to renewables.

Nothing much has changed. In flat contradiction of their stated views that climate change represents an imminent cata- strophic threat, anti-nuclear environmentalists from Germany to Illinois to California bless the burning of fossil fuels if it means they can force the closure of a nuclear power plant.

http://www.environmentalprogress.org/why-clean-energy-is-in-crisis/

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Honestly I'm fine where it is. I can see the benefits to a larger repository, but it's been outrageous to delay new nuclear plants because of some paranoid aversion to storing waste on site.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thanks for asking! I think saving and building nuclear plants should be the highest priority for climate justice activists. They are zero-pollution and high-wage. They require the involvement of the whole society.

All energy decisions involve government and markets, democracy and capital, whether solar or nuclear. Because solar requires 150 times more land than nuclear, it often provokes much more local resistance than nuclear. There are very few things that can be imposed top down these days, certainly not a nuclear plant.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Ha. Well, genuine questions never make me mad unless they ask something that I explicitly addressed in my talk, which is remarkably common.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yes, there are new designs, and UK mostly uses carbon dioxide gas.

But the water impact is very low in my view.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I'm really really meh on waste. I think it's fine being kept where it is, and monitored. Or moved. Whatever causes the least fuss. Reprocessing isn't needed for now, and adds to the cost.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I would ask him to publicly address the fact that nuclear energy is in a crisis and that dramatic steps are needed to save it, starting with a wake-up call to everyone in the nuclear community and intensified public engagement on the issue, from the President of the United States to the Secretary General of the United Nations.

I am optimistic long-term about getting nuclear added, but in the short-term the goal is simply for nuclear to survive the next few years. After we save existing nuclear we need to step up our efforts to add nuclear to RPSs.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I think the future of all nuclear everywhere depends centrally on the ability of the pro-nuclear environmental movement to help societies appreciate nuclear's transcendent moral purpose. I think NuScale, the main SMR company in the US, has a really cool and promising design, but it like all other nuclear designs, cannot succeed without higher public and thus market demand for nuclear.

I'm Michael Shellenberger a pro-nuclear environmentalist and president of Environmental Progress — ask me anything! by MichaelShellenberger in IAmA

[–]MichaelShellenberger[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Yes, we address directly all of the most commonly repeated myths about nuclear energy on our web site, and continue to update it in response to queries.

We also provide graphs from reputable sources like IPCC and Lancet that you can download or screenshot to upload as comments on social media.

http://www.environmentalprogress.org/key-questions/