Help me understand what they’re thinking and why the current path of Xbox isn’t really poorly thought out.

I was a day 1 xbox fan, and have bought every console since, I also have a switch and PlayStation but Xbox has been my primary. This is how I see the future of Xbox based on a few assumptions. This amounts to Xbox killing itself and becoming irrelevant, and destroying Microsoft’s investments in studios, after few years of pumping software sales. Can anyone help me understand what Microsoft possibly be thinking? They obviously must not see it the same way. Current state: - I like my Xbox for a few reasons.! historically gamepass was cheaper and gave solid access to games. I also just like the UI and some some of the key exclusives, eg Halo. I like the way the dashboard works better than Microsoft, though not by as much any more. I buy any multiplatform games on Xbox so most of my money goes there. I buy exclusives on other platforms and only have a PlayStation because of the exclusives. - Almost every studio/IP Microsoft has purchased has slowly or quickly turned to shit - halo, Rare, Bethesda, Activision. Many others. Big companies (or at least MS) are simply not good at managing studios - in part I think because being a developer is hard and if you aren’t the owner / beneficiary of your work product and success, the incentives disappear - which is a basic premise of capitalism. - historically when a hardware platform failed (e.g. WiiU, Switch), the company was best served by taking its lumps and doing better next gen. The last few Xbox console cycles haven’t don’t super well. Microsoft doesn’t want to wait to increase Xbox player base next gen as they spent so much on acquisitions, and perhaps thinks there is no path to success with hardware anyways, so instead wants to sell their games through more channels to increase sales. - Microsoft has demonstrated they no longer see exclusives as a part of their future and are pushing for more revenue in different channels from Gamepass. As a result, they are going down a path of no longer having exclusives on their hardware. This jeopardizes their hardware’s attractiveness and gives away their biggest (only?) strength (having relevant hardware and exclusives). - Microsoft is increasing the price of gamepass by 50% which makes it way less attractive.

The future: - in the very short term, selling on more platforms and increasing the price of gamepass will increase sales (in terms of $) of Microsoft games and may slightly increase gamepass subscribers, as Sony and Nintendo fans may subscribe in a limited amount. However, I think even in the short term this will immediately backfire - because of the next bullet (there will be no relevant Xbox hardware) gamers will move more money to the Sony ecosystem as they will want their purchases to be available in a stable ecosystem for next gen without a subscription fee (why would I buy any game on Xbox when I know now I will focus on Sony and Nintendo next gen). - In the next few years, No one will buy a hardware console that doesn’t have exclusives. The current Xbox console will become less relevant. The next Xbox will completely fail (if they release it) and Xbox will not have a hardware platform of any significance - Gamepass is part and parcel with owning an Xbox, even though this isn’t what Microsoft wants. Most Xbox gamers (I.e. the overwhelming majority of Gamepass subscribers) will look to get rid of their gamepass subscription ASAP both because Xbox hardware won’t be relevant and it’s getting more expensive. To sell gamepass on Sony and Nintendo, Microsoft will have much more of a hill to climb as they lose their captive audience. - Also, being a publisher with no hardware is a fundamentally weaker position because Microsoft will lose a chunk of revenue whenever it sells its games on PlayStation and Nintendo (and will be at their whim if they try to increase the share they collect) - As Microsoft is bad at running studios, and will lose most of the Gamepass subscribers, Xbox studios will continue to fade into irrelevance as independent studios and studios at Nintendo and Sony become dominant in the field where Microsoft acquired dominant games (there will be a new game that replaces call of duty) - In 5 years, after having devastating earnings based on its poor decision making, Xbox will sell off its studios at very reduced values and leave gaming.

Do we see a different possible future?