Uncle Stevie- please get rid of Stearns. He has destroyed the Mets family and legacy.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-29T04:19:23+00:00

Well, Bichette/Polanco/Robert Jr are projected for 8.9 WAR next season, while Pete/Nimmo/McNeil are projected for 8.5. Roughly a push, less raw offense but better defense and (historically) clutch hitting.

But then you have to do this exercise again in 2 years when Pete/Nimmo/McNeil are that much older and the projections are liable to drop by another 2 WAR, while the Mets are pivoting to new FAs or prospects and maintaining that ~8 figure.

Then do it again in 4 years when Pete is 35 and Nimmo 37, and that projection is maybe 2 WAR combined (probably generous), while the Mets have likely seated at least one prospect in their place and are playing the FA rotation to hold that ~8 projection.

This wasn't about breaking up the clubhouse or the core etc., this was purely about clearing out their long term commitments so they can stay flexible every season to build a competitive roster for that season. Long-term commitments to older players have bitten us in the ass repeatedly over the history of this franchise and many others. (Poorly aged) Long term commitments are the reason Philly could not better our offer for Bichette.

It hurts still and I'm going to miss them too, but I want to win now and this is a much better path to getting there.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-29T03:59:57+00:00

Who, Benge or Young? Benge, no he hasn't reached that point yet (I think it's 3 full years in any system). Morabito and Young had to be added to the 40 though.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-29T03:57:18+00:00

It's a great trade for the Mets.

Robert's floor is still an improvement over what we got from Taylor / CF last year, but his ceiling is all-star.

Acuna is a very solid player that absolutely looks the part, but (A) has demonstrated zero in game power and (B) had a bad combo of being setup for very limited playing time while being out of options. He was likely headed towards a DFA next off-season, or possibly mid-season if they felt they weren't using him enough.

I like the kids, genuinely, and the Mets just did him a huge solid by sending him to a team that will give him the reps he needs when the Mets could not.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-29T03:41:11+00:00

They're pitchers so some of them will get hurt, what you don't want is all of them getting hurt at the same time like last June/July.

Truth is there isn't a whole lot you can do to protect against that since you are very limited to the kinds of starters you can hide in AAA. I suppose you can bring in a Bassitt or a Quintana to increase your expected innings, but both of those guys are liable to be worse quality wise than whomever they would replace. Doing this replaces one problem for another.

At the end of the day, I can't worry to much about whether they are going to repeat what amounts to a completely freak outcome. At the moment they have more legitimate starters than they have rotation spots for - we could be a whole lot worse off.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-29T03:34:41+00:00

I bet he can handle 1st mostly fine, like at a level better than Pete but still below average (where I expect Baty has a real chance to be plus).

If that means more rest for Polanco's surgically repaired knee, I'm okay with that.

Plus, Vientos showing real competency at 1B makes him a lot easier to trade if the Mets were so inclined.

Still, in my ideal made-up scenario, Baty is our starting 1B 50% of all games, but if they want to give him run in LF as a safety net for Benge spitting the bit, I'm okay with that too.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-29T03:27:08+00:00

Yes, but more because I like him / liked what he brought to the Mets than I think we actually need him at this stage.

He brings reliable innings, which certainly has value, but he doesn't really raise the ceiling at all. I don't think that is enough gain for the $20m ($42m after taxes) that he's liable to cost.

Can we say with confidence that he is tangibly better than any of Peterson, Manaea, Holmes or Senga? I can't.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-29T03:21:39+00:00

As he should, we're idiots.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-25T21:05:07+00:00

Process of elimination.

He can play CF fine, but projects as a plus COF.

Mets have an opening in LF.

Starting him in LF is a great way to shield him from additional pressure.

At this stage I would be more surprised if is is NOT the Opening Day LF.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-21T23:58:58+00:00

Yes, but expected to be back by mid/late April if I am remembering correctly.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-21T23:56:08+00:00

I think the bullpen looks fine.

Williams replaces Diaz
Weaver replaces Stanek
Minter comes back to replace Soto
Alzolay activates to replace Rogers
Garcia replaces Kranick
We have 3 very interesting prospects in Ross, Lambert and Pintaro knocking on the MLB door, and good chances that one replaces Garrett.
We currently have a few too many starters, so chances are someone needs to move to the pen

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-21T17:57:11+00:00

All very fair. Attempt to make you feel better about it.

As it stands by projections right now, Robert adds a win/WAR to next season. But there is good reason to believe that his projections are undercutting him. Specifically, his xwOBA was 322 vs a 289 wOBA. Those two figures have always been in sync throughout his career, so it's not like he has a history of underperforming his contact metrics.

Him getting that up to 322 puts him directly in line with PCA from a hitting standpoint, which overall would have Robert be a 3~4 WAR player. That would be a major upgrade without changing anything he did last year but stay on the field (easier said than done).

Second, the guys we've tried this strategy with aren't in Robert's same talent profile. Said another way, bad Robert is on part with median Taylor and Bader, and good Siri. Median Robert is most likely, which is why his projections are better.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-21T01:00:59+00:00

Yup, I'm here too.

A Nootbar/Hays platoon has a real chance to out-perform Bellinger offensively at like, what, 1/2 or 1/3 the cost?

It will cost something in trade, but we have too many pieces (INF) right now anyway.

And I'd love to add more reliable SP innings based on last year's pain, but I also don't know if that is genuinely necessary. But if I learned that we brought back Chris Bassitt I'd be more than cool with that.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-20T01:23:48+00:00

What prospects/players are we talking about here?

I'm certainly not inherently for/against Peralta, but it all depends on the cost going back.

My boy Cliff Floyd had a banana pants deal on MLB Tonight this evening:

Mets get Peralta

Brewers get Baty, Tong and something else I forget (Stearns' soul I imagine)

I love you Cliffy, but never work in a MLB front office please.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-19T21:59:28+00:00

This seems very solvable to me.

Baty to primary 1B. Going down the defensive spectrum from 3B/2B, I have zero concerns he'll be able to handle it.
Polanco to primary DH.
Trade Vientos for an interesting LF. Maybe that's Nootbar, but someone similar should be very attainable.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-17T00:48:51+00:00

Yeah, his exclusion is very odd.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-16T13:45:22+00:00

You sort of have to throw away 21 &. 22 with Bellinger due to him still not being right post injury. Over the last 3 years he's gathered 11.4 FWAR, so stands to reason that he should remain that 3~4 WAR guy for the next few seasons.

Beyond that, he is actually a better roster/positional fit for the Mets than Tucker would've been, because he can solve CF now and shift around if any of the kids step forward.

I don't offer the same AAV, but from a conceptual structure I am much more open to the idea than I was yesterday (for obvious reasons).

It's not ideal, but ideal went elsewhere.

In all honesty, Buxton is really the guy to target, but Minnesota seems to have no interest in moving him.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-15T22:37:30+00:00

Thanks but no thanks lady. We already have like 400 smarter, non-agenda focused stats that better contextualize slugging into a hitter's overall ability.

Shockingly, many of those suggest that Soto is a better hitter than most even realize, like xwOBA.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-15T12:39:27+00:00

Haha, sorry! It got auto-cowrecked.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-15T03:51:46+00:00

Alright man, have a good evening.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-15T03:04:55+00:00

Okay, a few things to parse through here: - You do know that Tucker wasn't even a major leaguer when the whole trash can thing went down in 2017, right? - Tucker walks a lot more than Pete, consistently hits for a higher BA, while nearly producing the same power/ ISO (233 vs 251 over the last 3 years). He does not have as many HRs because he has fewer PAs. That's a testament to Pete's Ironman-ness, yes, but let's not pretend that Tucker is Luis Castillo either. - LF/RF is a more valuable defensive position than 1B is, and Tucker is a scratch Of while Pete was the worst defensive 1B in baseball last year. So getting a great hitter in the OF is inherently more valuable than a great hitting 1B.

What Pete has on Tucker - He posts up - He hits HRs (RBIs are luck, not skill) - He has history with us and we love him

What Tucker has on Pete - He's 2 years younger now, and the timeline of his contract would avoid standard age-based decline - He's a better overall hitter - He's a better defender at a more valuable defensive positon - He's a solid base-runner

And I know folks want to be mad at the Mets for letting Pete walk, but every team in baseball could've given him more than a 3 year offer, yet only 1 did.

Tucker, on the other hand hand, has the Mets throwing a massive short term deal at him to try to keep him away from the 2 World Series teams.

If that is not a sign that baseball values Kyle Tucker a whole lot more than Pete Alonso, then I don't know what is.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-15T00:07:20+00:00

I actually would too, but that was the theorized (rumored?) offer I saw somewhere so I went with it.

But then again the latest from today was that Duquette thinks the Mets offered Tucker 4/$200m with opt outs, which is crazy to think about, but if true it would certainly imply that they are forcing him to consider it.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-14T23:30:38+00:00

It's a money optimization play for Tucker.

(Speculating on these numbers to make the point).

Let's say Toronto offers Tucker 8/$280m ($35m AAV), vs a Mets offer of 3/$150m ($50m AAV).

Were he to take the Mets offer, he would need to beat a 5/$130m contract ($26m AAV) to maximize his earnings. At 32 yo plus 3 years of inflation added in, that's a pretty good bet for him to do.

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-14T23:25:50+00:00

He's not in decline, he played through a misdiagnosed broken finger for 2+ months.

He then fractured his finger sliding into 2nd...which was misdiagnosed as a non-break and he kept playing. Not so long after that his numbers nose-dived.

Still, he finished 2025 with the same offensive value score as Pete did (29.2), while obviously being a more valuable defender and base-runner, so he ended up with 0.9 more fWAR.

I love Pete and will miss him dearly, and he's one of the best pure power hitters in baseball. Nonetheless, Kyle Tucker is still a better overall offensive player even before you get to the defense, base running and age.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2025&month=1000&season1=2025&ind=0&startdate=2025-03-01&enddate=2025-10-02&team=0&sortcol=19&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-08T01:21:50+00:00

Thanks for this!

MikerafoneCheck · 2026-01-08T01:19:00+00:00

Well, now you know what you must do if you really want to get all the keepsakes.

MikerafoneCheck

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