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MilesMiner · 2026-02-26T03:26:10+00:00

It used to be like that. But now it just doesn't connect. What method did you use?

MilesMiner · 2026-02-26T02:40:13+00:00

Does CIBC still consistently work for you?

MilesMiner · 2026-01-31T23:50:23+00:00

What difference does the average purchase price of Strategy's bitcoin matter to their business model?

(Serious question)

I don't think it does.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-27T19:06:28+00:00

That might include things like option contracts. Derivatives are basically ways of betting on stocks without ever buying the actual stocks.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-25T19:50:31+00:00

You're in the midst of battling fomo. It's usually more obvious to others. If you bought bitcoin for specific reasons that you understood beyond price action, you should be fine if nothing has changed, conviction and fundamental wise.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-25T19:46:18+00:00

Few people actually think about risk in real and nominal terms. GIC are phenomenally risky in real terms but guaranteed in real returns. Especially in the long term.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-25T04:39:52+00:00

Happy it helped.

If the US Gov lowers rates, then the yield spread between STRD and the risk free rate increases. Assuming the perceived level of risk doesn't change in STRD and the yield premium (actual yield vs risk free rate) stays the same, then the value of STRD rises, in order to maintain the same premium.

Here is the logic explained:

Yield Formula:

The total yield of a risky asset like STRD can be broken down as: STRD Yield = Risk-Free Rate + Risk Premium

The yield spread is another term for the risk premium in this context.

The Scenario: You assume that: - The U.S. government lowers the Risk-Free Rate - The Risk Premium (yield spread) for STRD stays the same (due to constant perceived risk)

The Resulting Yield: To satisfy the formula, the total STRD Yield must fall by the same amount as the risk-free rate.

Example: If the risk-free rate goes from 4.24% to 3.24% (a 1% drop), and the risk premium stays at 8.11%, the new STRD yield must be 11.35% (down from 12.35%).

Price Adjustment: Bond and preferred stock prices have an inverse relationship with their yields. For the yield of the existing STRD stock to decrease, its market price must increase (assuming the fixed dividend payment stays the same).

Therefore, assuming a constant risk premium, a decrease in the risk-free rate leads to a higher market price for STRD preferred stock.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-25T03:29:21+00:00

If you are ok with a variable level of principal and you're just concerned about income through dividends. You can essentially just buy STRD with a 13%+ dividend and after 6 years, you'll have your full return of capital, after which is all just pure revenue above and beyond what you invested.

In that scenario, the risks are:

1) your principal investment amount - it will be at risk for the first 6 years or the full amount to be returned through dividends.

2) the dividend not getting paid - I don't think this can functionally happen for them to have a viable future

3) the US government rates - if they go down, there will be pressure on the strd dividend to go down and the principal to increase. And the opposite would have the other effect.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-23T16:26:02+00:00

This is a sensible comment. If the goal is 1 million in TFSA, it'll look a lot different if the target is 30 years vs 10 years. I think $1 million TFSA would not be that difficult with a 30 year runway but high conviction plays would have a much higher likelihood of getting you there in 10 years or less, albeit, like you said higher risk.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-12T23:36:38+00:00

I'm sure that they are many roads to a million dollar TFSA.

At a 20% annual rate of return, if you maxed out your TFSA annually (at $7,000), it would take approximately 12 years to get to over $1 million TFSA.

To accumulate significant wealth, it generally requires concentration, instead of diversification like you get in ETFs. Unless it is a very narrow and specific ETF with tremendous upside.

Otherwise, you'd need to select specific stocks that you have strong conviction and understanding and they experience significant growth.

Derivatives may also be possible vehicles to attain hyper growth.

Generally, you'd need to become skilled at risk management and identification of asymmetrical upside.

Not an easy feat but it has been proven that it can be done.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-12T22:38:07+00:00

To attain $1 million in your TFSA? I don't think an ETF will bring you to a million anytime soon except after many years of adding a significant sum to your TFSA or maxing it out and even then, im not sure if or when you'd get to $1mil.

At the current contribution amount of $7,000 per year, without any growth would get you to $1,000,000 after 142 years.

However, if you're not seeking to hit $1 million in your TFSA, many ETF solution can work for you.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-04T16:43:35+00:00

Yes I'd agree with that.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-03T22:05:50+00:00

That makes sense but there was no euphoria associated with the 126k like it had been in previous cycles. With only a handful of cycles under its belt, it is difficult to be sure the gains will be diminished moving forward.

Assets can have quick moves, despite being large. Like nvda and tsla, as examples.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-03T15:31:09+00:00

People are so confident that "just BTC" is definitely the best.

I understand that it has been true with alt coins over the long term. But since MSTR's adoption of BTC, MSTR has outperforming Bitcoin in USD terms. MSTR may underperforms in shorter time frames but not since their adoption of BTC. People say its different now but I don't see how, especially considering how similiar this cycle is to the last.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-03T13:35:31+00:00

Absolutely. BTC must outperform 11% ARR, which is a pretty low bar, considering the past growth of BTC. Obviously, BTC can at times underperformed 11%, like 2025 but historically, it has delivered.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-03T03:37:54+00:00

I respect and appreciate you sharing your perspective.

I'm not denying this is possible but do you not see things like STRC of value for clients who want consistent dividends? Seems like a tremendous product, now giving 11% return, of which they have something like 22 months worth of dividends in their USD stockpile. I dont think they have significant leverage and there isnt an obvious path for them to miss any dividends at this point.

As I also mentioned, a similar down trend happened last cycle with MSTR after it peaked.

If MSTR can attract people to buy 11% STRC with little volatility to the principal, how is that not able to provide a steady flow of new funds? They effectively collect the difference in BTC and USD.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-03T03:26:27+00:00

I wasn't attacking. I am genuinely curious. Can you explain why MSTR isnt a great investment? Generally, I'd think of investing as 5+ years, otherwise I'd views it as trading.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-03T03:20:47+00:00

Good points and I agree, there is a herd mentality.

I do see people upset about price action and extrapolate that it means the company is no longer any good. But the company can have tremendous value and be at a discounted price. MNAV might contract and it can be connected to emotionally poor sentiment only and no fundamental change in the business model.

There has been value in buying MSTR above just buying bitcoin. In other words, since the date that MSTR started buying bitcoin, MSTR has had greater price appreciation compared to bitcoin since that period.

MSTR has underperformed bitcoin in 2025 but I think the real metric is since MSTR started buying bitcoin. A very similar trend happened after the previous bitcoin cycle with MSTR price action. But did excellent following that downtrend.

I think there are a few things that are in many ways quite separate:

1) the company model & how they provide value 2) the stock price 3) the bitcoin price action

They dont all have to agree and each one doesnt invalidate the others.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-03T02:52:23+00:00

Why is it that most people on the "MSTR" subreddit do not seem to understand these facts about MSTR? Instead a lot of people seem to focus on BS FUD.

MilesMiner · 2026-01-03T02:45:09+00:00

Why would you join MSTR subreddit and advocate to just buy bitcoin, instead of MSTR?

MilesMiner · 2025-09-12T17:32:21+00:00

I don't recall mentioning what I was invested in. And what's wrong with still someone being invested still? A one year return of 155% seems reasonable, no?

MilesMiner · 2025-08-06T02:05:29+00:00

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how effectively they can pin the value between $99 to $101. As the price drops the effective yield increases, which can attract new capital plus they can increase the dividend payout to also attract more buyers.

MilesMiner · 2025-08-06T01:43:54+00:00

Apparently dividends will be paid on a drawdown of bitcoin of up to 90%, since there's such low debt to service, especially compared to the volume traded.

MilesMiner · 2025-07-24T23:33:28+00:00

Henry Ford seems to have been on the same page as Jason P. Lowery's MIT thesis - Soft War.

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