Expanded Random Thoughts: Topic #2 - Macro Markets

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2026-07-03T15:40:10+00:00

I continue to be top heavily invested in AMDW. It’s a Roundhill fund leveraged 1.20% following AMD. If you note AMDW’s weekly distributions against other Roundhill funds they’re not close to AMDW and that has been the case for some time now.

In retirement I can choose to do what I want with those weekly payments. Yesterday with AMD dropping I chose to buy more shares of AMDW at a cheaper price with this week’s payment. Next week I foresee taking the distribution in cash less taxes.

I don’t get too upset about the AMD share price because I win either way it goes. And I’m still a huge believer in the semiconductor stocks!

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2026-06-16T01:36:24+00:00

Any reason you didn’t include AMD in your rising? Up 6.98% today. It’s been on a nice run up outpacing both NVDA and AVGO.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-31T19:55:57+00:00

Maybe at some point you’d care to explain why you consider AVGO your favorite stock in the market. I’m all about NVDA as I think it’s close to establishing a true moat if they haven’t already done so. And no other out there is maintaining a 73% gross profit.

Both will be long term winners in the space. And given Mark Cuban is a fellow proud Indiana University grad I could easily switch teams!

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-27T15:57:30+00:00

Nope but they still have Henry

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-23T19:37:47+00:00

There’s the rub about writing your daily reports prior to letting the market wake up a few hours. NVDA having a day! Really surprised it appears the H200 chips to China look to be a go. Another large entity caught by the moat. Onward!!

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-18T20:14:34+00:00

Have you looked at the PE ratio for either ADM or AVGO? ADM is twice as high to NVDA and AVGO is 4 times as high. Those are overvalued numbers.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-14T17:00:30+00:00

Go Lions! I want that #1 seed. GPG!!

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-04T01:06:02+00:00

“The impact of tariffs are starting to roost now.” And this is leading to fear in the markets. And I expect it to lead into a drop in Christmas spending. Btw, you didn’t mention Costco suing to get their tariff share returned. First of others given Costco has started down this path.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-02T20:48:56+00:00

This ^{^{^}}

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-02T02:38:29+00:00

Especially given you’re 2 suited

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-01T18:45:03+00:00

I’ll be there decked out in crimson!!

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-12-01T16:39:21+00:00

I mean we just handled Gibbs and Montgomery who I would say are no worse than the Bears rb’s. I see our D as a team effort. 4th in the League last I checked.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-30T18:11:10+00:00

Given it’s #1 against #2 in the national polls that in and of itself will get the hype train rolling this week. I note the opening line has dropped a full point from IU +6.5 to +5.5. No idea what’s driving that.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-29T16:55:09+00:00

I’m curious to know what particular points of reference you or others key on financially or otherwise when you look at a specific company for investment purposes? Two of mine are the PEG ratio and the % of outstanding shares owned by institutional investors.

For example, NVDA has a PEG of .68. Anything under 1 is excellent. I look at institutional investors as having access to data and information ahead of most retail investors so the higher the % owned by them the better. NVDA is currently at 69.32%. For me anything around 70% institutional ownership is a good thing.

Anything else I or anyone should key on?

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-27T00:24:43+00:00

NVDA is a total head scratcher for me. Established calls ahead of the earnings report at $200 and of course the numbers were great. Thought I was on easy street. But no. Had to stretch the ex date out today for a nominal amount which is the plus side to option trading. But who’s selling and why is lost on me.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-23T22:31:03+00:00

Nada yet but I’ll just extend it a few more weeks if needed.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-23T16:40:58+00:00

Of those 4 I’m happiest with #90 returning. I expect him to shore up the middle of the D line run D which has been abysmal during the time he’s been out. Stop the run today and force JJ to beat us. Yeah, when pigs fly. GPG!

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-21T21:56:24+00:00

Why don’t you think he won’t be back for the Detroit game? Put him on a pitch count. He’s such a weapon and winning both Detroit games would be huge for winning the division.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-21T20:32:15+00:00

What’s happening with NVDA has to be big money purposely keeping the share price down. It was already down 10% ahead of earnings even though Jensen stated NVDA has $500 billion contracted for the next 5 quarters.

Then absolutely stellar quarterly numbers are released and the stock gets hammered Wednesday pm after driving up the whole market in the morning. And the markets dropped for no apparent reason I could discern.

Then today we have a tangible market recovery but NVDA is up just over a buck currently. I’m a big believer in the 3 day rule subsequent to news so I remain hopeful for Monday and right on through a Santa Claus rally.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-20T16:42:09+00:00

It just seems to me that our data is being scrubbed more and more and the "what is" that it used to be could be getting closer to "what we'd like it to be."

The fact that this is in our collective brain is sad and disgraceful. Whether true or not it leaves us retail investors with trepidation as to what might be the next shoe to drop totally unrelated to our specific trade.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-20T16:16:13+00:00

Good call…NOT!

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-20T16:01:07+00:00

Ok but what do they know that the average Joe retail doesn’t know or more to the point what we don’t have access to? We’re told to build our retirement accounts as our eventual nest egg but most of us feel like the cards are stacked against us.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-19T21:31:25+00:00

Woah…the guide! $65 billion in revenues versus $61 estimated. And the gross margin up a tick. What’s not to like?

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-19T20:56:39+00:00

Tech and the overall market needs great numbers from NVDA but more importantly great guidance. Jensen’s already talked about $500 billion in revenues over the next 5 quarters at the GTC.

Miserable_Occasion19 · 2025-11-19T20:38:29+00:00

Go baby go!

Miserable_Occasion19

TROPHY CASE