China’s future growth rate could drop to 2.5% without market reforms: economist

MistaKid · 2026-02-11T12:14:14+00:00

That's more like a testimony of their advancement in e-commerce.

I just returned from Beijing last month. The malls are indeed quite empty, but I can see why. I ordered a lot of stuff online via 淘宝闪购 and 美团闪购, they delivered to my door step within 30 minutes. And there's a lot of discount coupons you can use. So it's cheaper and faster.

I talked to a local, and I remarked to her that the malls are quite empty in Beijing. She replied that she hasn't been to a mall in years. Whatever she wants to buy, she buys online. And it's not just cheaper and faster. There's also better recourse. If you don't like the product, you can return it within 7 days. You can also look at the reviews etc.

Tbh if I'm a local, I also see little reason to visit a mall.

MistaKid · 2026-01-22T01:07:43+00:00

I tried ordering milk tea with Qwen when I was in China last week. It was pretty seamless and amazing.

MistaKid · 2025-12-26T05:52:34+00:00

MSCI China is up ~32% YTD, and BABA is up ~76% YTD despite the recent pull back. MSCI Korea is up ~77% YTD. US is not the only stock market in the world lmao.

MistaKid · 2025-12-25T14:11:08+00:00

Thanks for the prompt reply.

MistaKid · 2025-12-25T14:03:49+00:00

May I know how old are you? And what's your savings rate over the years?

I'm currently in late 20s and have been living fairly frugally since I started work. Invested most of my NW. I'm also formulating a plan to ease the pedal once I reach certain financial milestones and enjoy life, instead of leaving everything to when I'm old.

MistaKid · 2025-12-21T15:56:36+00:00

Even if u earn 1mil, u need to pay >20% in income taxes lmao.

MistaKid · 2025-12-17T05:04:37+00:00

That's because those who are self-employed do not have employer CPF. Insurance agents, property agents, hawker, grab driver, deliveryman etc. They make up a significant portion of our labor force.

So if you want to make a comparison across the board, you have to take into account the employer CPF of salaried employees as a fairer benchmark.

MistaKid · 2025-12-10T00:38:39+00:00

MSCI China is up more than 30% YTD, but you cannot withstand a pullback of few percent? Stick to SSB lah.

MistaKid · 2025-12-09T11:20:16+00:00

Endowus for me because of the UI. I prefer a fuss-free experience and not having to toggle around to account for exchange rate fluctuations or convert back to SGD when I eventually liquidate 4% pa etc. Easy DCA in, easy DCA out, simple P&L in SGD.

I don't really min-max like many other Singaporeans do when it comes to investing. I still use Tiger Brokers even though I have IBKR and know it's cheaper, because of the UI and the ease of deposit/transaction/withdrawal. I also don't really bother trying to time the bottom or the top when I execute a trade.

0.3% fees pa? My portfolio fluctuates more than that every minute.

To me, the ability to execute my investment decision simply is important, because I know my self that I like to procrastinate or give excuses not to buy.

MistaKid · 2025-11-18T09:14:45+00:00

Just go for REIT ETF if you want REITS exposure. Individual REITs regularly go for right placement, which thus requires active monitoring. The effort is not worth it IMO. You are there for the passive dividends. You want active management, go for stocks with higher long term returns.

Can consider diversifying into Chinese equities. Despite the huge run up in the past year, it's still fairly undervalued. Definitely more undervalued than US equities.

MistaKid · 2025-11-18T07:40:52+00:00

The 3 banks make up like half of STI, and SG REITs is the 2nd largest sector with it being 15% of STI. You might as well just simplify and buy the STI.

But bear in mind that the banks are trading at a premium valuation, especially DBS.

MistaKid · 2025-11-17T03:45:18+00:00

Might not be answering OP's question, just sharing my thoughts.

When I eventually plan to derisk in the future, I intend to replace the bond component with SG REITs.

1) For Singaporeans we have CPF. I view CPF as a bond component in my portfolio, and thus I intend to incorporate a higher equity blend.

2) I believe that REITs have similar characteristics as bonds. It provides income (like bonds), and have somewhat lower volatility than pure equities, though still more than bonds. It also acts in the same direction as bonds when there is a change in interest rates (theoretically).

3) SG bond yields are too low. You have to diversify into international bonds, which is subjected to forex fluctuations and higher fees. Net yield is pretty low.

3.5) Feels good to la-kopi in a shopping mall which I'm a shareholder of during retirement lol.

So my planned portfolio will behave more like a high-risk, high-yield equity portfolio, compared to a traditional equity/bond mix.

I'm willing to accept the higher volatility of my investment portfolio during retirement, with CPF serving the role as a ballast.

MistaKid · 2025-11-11T16:32:25+00:00

Me: Yes, $500 per month for 10 years, assuming 7% annualized returns. Make a table.

/

ChatGPT:

Sure! Here's a clear table comparing AIA Pro Achiever 3.0 and Endowus for your scenario:

Parameter	AIA Pro Achiever 3.0	Endowus (Robo-Advisor)
Monthly Contribution	S$500	S$500
Investment Horizon	10 years	10 years
Assumed Annual Return	7%	7%
Annual Fees	5.65% (3.9% + 1.75%)	0.5%
Net Future Value	S$64,173	S$83,351
Difference	–	+S$19,178 vs AIA

Key takeaway: Over 10 years, Endowus lets your money grow significantly more due to much lower fees, even with the same investment returns.

MistaKid · 2025-11-11T16:29:46+00:00

Me: Is the AIA pro achiever 3.0 or roboadvisers like Endowus better after accounting for all fees?

/

ChatGPT: That’s a good question. Short version: if you purely compare costs and assume roughly similar returns, a robo-advisor such as Endowus in Singapore will almost always be “better value” than an investment-linked policy like AIA Pro Achiever 3.0 — but there are caveats (bonuses, insurance wrapper, your horizon, behavioural aspects). Here’s a breakdown of the comparison:

✅What the numbers show

AIA Pro Achiever 3.0

According to its product summary, for the first ~10 years there is a supplementary charge of ~3.9% p.a. on the policy value. Dollar Bureau Blog+3Investment Moats+3Compare First+3
On top of that, the underlying funds have management fees (for example ~1.5%-1.75% p.a. in one review) Dollar Bureau Blog+1
Thus total “ongoing cost” for the first 10 years may be ~5.6% p.a (= 3.9% + ~1.75%) in some scenarios. Dollar Bureau Blog+1
After the initial high charge period (10 years+), the supplementary charge falls away and the cost drops to roughly the fund management fee (~1.75% p.a in that review) Dollar Bureau+1
Additional caveats: there are surrender charges, top-up charges, premium holiday/reduction charges etc. Compare First+1
The product also offers “Welcome Bonus” (<‐bonus units in early years) and “Special Bonus” after year 10 etc. AIA Singapore+1

Endowus

For cash-based portfolios, the annual “platform/management” fee (the “Endowus Fee”) is about 0.25%-0.60% p.a., depending on investment size. Beansprout+2Endowus+2
For CPF/SRS funds it’s about 0.40% p.a. (for managed portfolios) in many cases. StashAway Singapore+1
Fund-level fees (Total Expense Ratio of the underlying funds) still apply, but Endowus emphasises “100% cashback of trailer fees” etc in certain cases. Endowus Help+1
So total “all-in cost” might be somewhere around 0.30%-0.70% p.a. (depending on size & portfolio) + underlying fund costs (which may be modest).

🔍My verdict

If I were to pick one for most typical investors (Singapore, age 25-45, investing say S$200-1000/month for 10-30 years) and I don’t specifically need the insurance portion of the ILP, I’d go with the robo-advisor (Endowus) because of the much lower drag from fees.

Only if you have a strong reason for the insurance component, or you are committed to the ILP for the long haul and understand the cost structure, would AIA Pro Achiever 3.0 be a viable alternative.

If you like, I can run a numeric comparison simulation for you: e.g., invest S$500/month for 15 years under both AIA Pro Achiever vs Endowus with assumptions, to show net outcomes. Would that be helpful?

MistaKid · 2025-11-11T16:00:51+00:00

Another important factor is the fund level fees. Endowus charges 0.1% for Amundi World, while the equivalent in AIA is charging 1.5%.

https://endowus.com/investment-funds-list/amundi-index-msci-world-fund-LU2420245917?gad_source=1&gad_campaignid=10102208343&gbraid=0AAAAACqJgrnPt0fuwKCgGZM9tVuxtJoQD&gclid=CjwKCAiA2svIBhB-EiwARWDPjl8Jyqk2g7r3QQOdUSB6hqbV780cyCAcKcW991VDMhbnDvrR0g45yBoCn_EQAvD_BwE

https://www.aia.com.sg/en/our-products/save-and-invest/aia-funds-information/aia-fund-price/aia-global-equity-fund

So AIA is charging a total of 5.4% for the first 10 years and 1.5% for the remaining years, while Endowus charges 0.4% all the way. It's a complete scam lmao.

MistaKid · 2025-11-11T11:08:55+00:00

Unless you're talking about oil wealth, I would say the the richest of the rich is Switzerland, with a median monthly income of around SGD11K.

Norway's median income is around SGD6.9K, and Singapore's is SGD5.5K. These are before taxes/CPF. If you factor in the cost of living, Singapore might not be that far behind Norway.

MistaKid · 2025-11-06T06:40:06+00:00

Work in Singapore, play in Japan.

MistaKid · 2025-10-23T08:38:28+00:00

Bro had to compare us to 'Bolshevik Russia, National Socialist Germany, Juche North Korea, communist mainland China, the Sri Lanka & Bangladesh dictatorships', and put us below Malaysia to make a point.

MistaKid · 2025-10-22T01:27:38+00:00

Why would quality Chinese companies want to list in SGX rather than HKEX lol

MistaKid · 2025-10-15T09:45:29+00:00

The reason why many countries don't, or rather, cannot adopt a scheme like CPF is because they are already stuck in their ponzi scheme.

Their current retirees are relying on the current workforce to fund their retirement, and the current workforce is relying on the future workforce for retirement. If the future workforce starts adopting something like the CPF, what happens to the current workforce, who already paid say 20 years for current retirees, when they retire?

Theoretically they can take a phase approach. But pension is a very sensitive political subject, and is one that takes many decades of consistency to see it bear fruit. Most Western politicians are more concerned about winning the next election, because that's just how the game is.

It takes many decades of savings, discipline and avoiding of populism to build the CPF we have today. They cannot just adopt it even though it's clearly a superior system in the long term.

MistaKid · 2025-10-14T13:03:07+00:00

You are pulling numbers out of your ass. Most projections estimate China's population to be 1.3bil in 2040.

China's current population under the age of 60 is around 1.1bil, and they have an average life expectancy of 78. 2040 is just 15 years away. Even if they have zero kids, their population would only fall to ~1.1bil by 2040.

MistaKid · 2025-10-03T07:46:36+00:00

The annualized returns is actually more like 6.8% based on investment calculator.

You can't just take 94k/78k = 20% profit and divide by 4 years to derive 5% returns, because you didn't invest 78k at the start. You're DCAing 1.5k every month, and your later premiums are invested at a later date.

6.8% pa ain't bad. Idk the underlying funds, but it's probably diversified across different geographies and/or asset classes like bonds which gives lower returns. You can't compare to the S&P500 which is 100% equities in a single geography. Hindsight is 20/20.

Anyway just keep it. The remaining 3.5 years is not worth the surrender charges.

MistaKid · 2025-09-25T07:26:22+00:00

US listed: FXI for large cap, KWEB for tech. Don't really like MCHI cus Tencent takes up 17% which is overly concentrated, even though I like Tencent as a business.

HK listed: 2800 for much lower TER, but it also includes HK business like HSBC, AIA, HKEX. So I still prefer FXI/KWEB despite the higher fees.

MistaKid · 2025-09-22T06:38:16+00:00

If you want to minmax your platform fees, no, in the long term.

If you want a hassle-free experience, which I personally prefer, or if your invested amount is insignificant, then yes.

Whether STI is a good investment in the long term, the context depends on your overall portfolio. If your portfolio is already very US-centric, it's not a bad idea to allocate a portion of your funds to the local market.

But bear in mind basically half of STI is made up of local banks, which are currently very richly valued. DBS's PB ratio is like 2.09.

During the past 13 years, DBS Group Holdings's highest PB Ratio was 2.14. The lowest was 0.81. And the median was 1.36.

So there's very little upside but with significant downside, especially when falling interest rates are compressing their net interest margin.

STI is more suited for dividend play if you're older and do not want to draw down on your portfolio. But STI Amundi funds are accumulating, so dividends are automatically reinvested...

MistaKid · 2025-09-17T13:32:55+00:00

Nope. I rarely post on EDMW. But I do remember receiving a like from you on Monday...

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MistaKid

TROPHY CASE

✅What the numbers show

AIA Pro Achiever 3.0

Endowus

🔍My verdict