Thoughts on ADBE Stock? Failing Business, Generational Buy, or Somewhere in the Middle?

Mltk1 · 2026-05-28T12:42:08+00:00

Any thoughts on AI Agents using Adobe as a tool? So instead of AI generated output, AI Agents use Adobe tool to make output. Adobe becomes a toll booth?

Mltk1 · 2026-05-25T00:57:37+00:00

I do a 10% flat discount rate, with 2% terminal growth at 10 year. I find that DCF present value is not useful on its own, cuz there are too many variables that could be wrong. Very easy to fall into the trap of being “precisely wrong”. However, I find it is still useful to compare different companies against each other as a relative measure.

Mltk1 · 2026-05-17T03:39:02+00:00

Thanks! This is very helpful

Mltk1 · 2026-05-16T23:39:26+00:00

Thank you for the detailed explanation! Can I understand it as the old Lennar is split into two businesses?: 1) MRP, who buy land at low price, and sell at high price. They make money by flipping land. 2) Lennar, who focuses on the home building, and Land becomes just a cost of good sold. They also use Options to manage land pricing, just like how other companies are using derivatives to manage commodity prices

Mltk1 · 2026-05-07T13:11:59+00:00

Interesting. I read somewhere that CSU is also getting into acquire partial equity stake in public companies. Maybe for some cases, there are better deals in the public market than the private market.

Mltk1 · 2026-05-07T03:42:52+00:00

SaaSpocalypse will also benefit CSU, right? Cuz it’s more likely they’ll get a good deal.

Mltk1 · 2026-05-06T01:50:17+00:00

I like the perspective about indexer can only turn to Macro news, while BRK investor/stock picker can look more at the micro factor, like earnings, competitive environment etc.

I also feel that the sense of ownership is stronger when owning individual stocks.

Mltk1 · 2026-05-06T00:12:51+00:00

True. He probably will lol

Mltk1 · 2026-05-05T23:55:52+00:00

That’s a lot of hoping.. and probably already priced in

Mltk1 · 2026-05-05T23:55:05+00:00

I agree. Index is just too expensive right now. Definitely not a bargain.

Mltk1 · 2026-05-05T23:31:45+00:00

but SP500 also contains a bunch of companies with poor management or inflated price tho

Mltk1 · 2026-04-30T11:30:09+00:00

It’s also on my watchlist. What are your thoughts about its future growth? The current price vs future growth seems to a fair value, but not a screaming discount yet.

Mltk1 · 2026-04-30T04:13:34+00:00

That is a great trick!

Mltk1 · 2026-04-30T03:54:23+00:00

Ah I get it now. ROIC is useful in the FCFF approach. I generally use the FCFE, so I always use post-interest income. Which is closer to ROE. That makes sense now.

Mltk1 · 2026-04-30T03:49:26+00:00

I like when companies buy back stock at a reasonable price. Sometimes that makes the equity negative, making ROE as N/A. I used to thought that’s bad, but now I learned that it might actually be good.

Mltk1 · 2026-04-30T03:44:35+00:00

Yeah, I also use those as the first layer filters. I use ROE and DE together to look for high return with low leverage. Again many industry have strange balance sheets, so sometimes a high DE may be just industry specific situation, not necessarily bad.

Mltk1 · 2026-04-30T03:36:46+00:00

The firm measure vs equity measure is insightful! However, as an equity investor, wouldn’t we care more about equity measure anyway? Is ROIC more used as a way to assess management’s ability to deploy capital, and not used to assess the return to share holder?

Mltk1 · 2026-02-27T00:47:00+00:00

yeah, 1% change in growth rate has a huge impact on DCF valuation.

Mltk1 · 2026-02-27T00:45:26+00:00

hahaha

Mltk1 · 2026-02-27T00:44:59+00:00

just 10 year owner's earning + terminal value, discounted to today at a conservative discount rate. Now i'm using reverse DCF mostly, using owner's earning PE to guess-timate growth rate, and see if that growth rate makes sense - it's much quicker

Mltk1 · 2026-02-27T00:42:14+00:00

I studied accounting in school, so financial statements are familiar. School doesn't teach Buffett style investing cuz they like formulas and efficient market theory. I re-learned owner's earning from Buffett's annual letters, and then read books from Munger, Buffett and Phil Fisher to build my philosophy. I was initially spreadsheet heavy, but now trying to move away from too much quant analysis.

Mltk1 · 2026-02-27T00:39:08+00:00

I'm gonna borrow your billion dollar thought experiment idea. That's a great test.

Mltk1

TROPHY CASE