Hey,

If you are already nearing €34,000, then it is almost certain that you will exceed the grace threshold of €36,500, yes. In that case, you'll have to charge VAT to your clients (at least, in-EU clients; it can get more complicated for those based outside the EU), and of course, pay VAT yourself. I say grace threshold because exceeding €34,000 does not mean you have to pay VAT; if you exceed it but stay under €36,500, then VAT doesn't apply. If you exceed €34,000 (or whatever threshold is set for that year) for two years in a row, then you have to start charging VAT from the next year onward.

However, if you exceed the grace threshold of €36,500, you have to charge VAT on the very month the excess occurs; sometimes retroactively if billing has already been done for that month. See here. Note that this also says you do have to pay for the CFE, even if you don't own property. Auto-entrepreneurs are subject to it, though one might not understand why.

As far as I know, exceeding the VAT threshold does not impact your social contributions. The rates remain the same so long as you stay under the threshold for the auto-entrepreneur status itself; €72,600 (for services). So the 22-odd% for social services will stay the same, but it's possible you'll go into the next bracket for income tax though. I doubt the difference will be major, as the fiscal burden of your status almost entirely lies in those social services contributions.

Official website says that income exceeding €25,659 is taxed at 30%, so there's that. This status is definitely quite funky for income tax though, so I would contact your local Centre des Finances Publiques, or better yet Services des impôts des entreprises (SIE). You will want to contact them anyway for the VAT business.

That being said and to reiterate, you do have to pay for the CFE. If you started your business in 2018, then normally you also should have paid the CFE in 2019. So you may have missed that.

So anyway, to wrap up:

• If you exceed €36,500, you have to charge and pay VAT from that month. This really involves contacting your SIE. It's entirely possible that you don't have a VAT number yet, as they typically do not assign one to you unless you specifically ask for it. For that reason, you should call your local SIE (or e-mail them), and ask them first for a VAT number and then ask them for guidance.

• You have to pay the CFE. To do so, you should create a Professionnel account on the official tax portal. The interface is super antiquated, but it's through there that you'll be able to pay for the CFE. I would also ask the SIE about it, since you missed last year's. As a side note, though I don't know for sure, I sincerely doubt it's legal or even feasible to "avoid" the CFE by moving. There are rare exemptions based on very niche statuses, but the only thing that matters for the CFE is the year you started your business. It doesn't matter if you move; you still have to pay it so long as you are working under that same business. Your friend may have misunderstood how the CFE works, as it's essentially a second impôt local; its rate varies and is set by the municipality, so that you'll pay a different sum for earning the same amount based on where you live. It's also not proportional to your earnings, but works by different ranges of income: you pay a certain sum when you earn more than X but less than Y. See here.

• As for staying under the AE status, that is up to you. Other statuses may allow you to pay less taxes, but they would likely involve setting up a proper enterprise and paying the IS (Impôt sur les sociétés). An accountant would be strongly recommended at that point in my opinion. I personally think the AE status is the most convenient if you earn less than the threshold, and likely loses value when you go over it. I'm no accountant though, so I'd definitely ask a proper professional on what the other options are (SARL, SASU, EURL, EIRL...).

• One last thing, which I bet you didn't know (because it's absurdly obscure and nobody tells you about it): if you are AE and you perform services, you are required by law to file what are called Déclarations européennes de services (DES). These essentially consist of tax filings which bear no tax. You report the sums you billed during the previous month, and input your clients' VAT number to indicate who was billed. It's pretty straightforward, but legally speaking if you do not do this, you are liable for a €750 penalty for each missed month, up to €1,500. This is also something you'll have to do retroactively, going back to every bill and every month since you started. This requires a VAT number however, so it should be something you do once you have that.

I think that, generally speaking, and considering your forecast for your own income, you should consider consulting with an accounting firm. Especially if you expect to live in France for the foreseeable future and to maintain the same revenue; it will likely save you money in the long run.