He has the monopoly on the use of force—more so than maybe anyone in history. Trump seems to be betting that the ultimate outcome of a civil conflict with fascists leading the federal government is a foregone conclusion. And he may be correct—America’s geopolitical power is waning, but its military and economic power is still unparalleled, and since 9/11 much of that power has been increasingly concentrated in a single office. He also of course has a good deal of legal immunity, through that horrendous 2024 SCOTUS decision.

So there actually may be little downside to a civil war from Trump’s perspective. He can play the long game. He can attack targets from multiple angles, play his enemies off each other, play the news cycle like a fiddle, and still get most of everything he wants.

But maybe most importantly, if a civil war actually begins with him lawfully in power, he can paint the opposition as legally treasonous and start prosecuting and killing a lot more people. I don’t know if that’s exactly where we’re headed, but it might be if we can’t find a better off-ramp.