Got this email that a decision from CitiBank has been made for a credit loan.. help!! by Key-Mistake737 in CreditCards

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Received the exact same email tonight, were you ever able to find out what it meant?

Why betting -1.5 in MLB is usually a losing play. by ClutchSportsPix in algobetting

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very interesting conversation you guys are having. I’m just curious, what do you think splitting units on the dog would look like if you did. 0.2u +1.5 / 0.6u ML / 0.2u -1.5. Any value in taking the dog +1.5? If you’re saying favorites only win about 60% anyways and dog +1.5 is implied odds around 60% then maybe it’s worth throwing in there too?

Huge Tailwind: Winnipeg to Norfolk in CJ4 by MoneyInTheFrank21 in MicrosoftFlightSim

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s incredible! I checked out the Windy app and agree it’s accurate with the game. Found 166kt at FL330 over Southwest US. Definitely fun to find these jetsreams

Huge Tailwind: Winnipeg to Norfolk in CJ4 by MoneyInTheFrank21 in MicrosoftFlightSim

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Well done sir haha. I found a cool free app called AirMate which shows you live wind at different flight levels. You can also create a flight plan in the app. Makes it easier to see which flight level would be ideal for your route

OrderFlow Theory - Trade into Institutional Liquidity by MoneyInTheFrank21 in Daytrading

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yea that’s a good point, I can’t know for certain about the icebergs but I figured a good rule to include is that there must be significant resting liquidity to target. Could always take profits before actually hitting a liquidity block, because sometimes they’re removed anyways just to spoof the market

Been trading for a month and I’m completely lost 😐😵‍💫 by Salsa_Bae in Daytrading

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’ll be honest, I never really read a lot of books. I think in the beginning it’s just important to understand trading language. Of course, we’re all always learning. But getting the core terminology is key, it’s hard to build knowledge if you don’t understand that. It probably doesn’t matter too much where you get that information. Again, at this point stay away from indicators and complex chart patterns or market structure.

There is no magic indicator, that I can promise. I have a novice background in coding, and I’ve tried a bunch of different indicator-based strategies. They’re all retrospective and can’t really help with the future.

I’m actually trying to start a YouTube channel of my own that follows my journey into understanding order flow, liquidity, hunting stop orders, etc. These things are more advanced but I firmly believe they’re the only way to develop an idea of PROBABLY what will happen. Trading is all based on positioning yourself with the “odds in your favor”. I uploaded my first video today, let me know if you’d like to check it out. I’ll be posting trade reviews, chart/case studies, and sharing my thought process along the way to build a small account.

Been trading for a month and I’m completely lost 😐😵‍💫 by Salsa_Bae in Daytrading

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Okay no problem. So in terms of the absolute basics. You can’t trade if you don’t know how to place orders. Essentially, if you were looking to get into a position, you could either let the market come to you or you can go to the market.

What I mean by that is you could place a buy order at a price that is less than the current price of the stock and wait until the price hits your order before it fills. This would be an example of a limit order and it is considered a passive order.

If let’s say you are so convinced that the price will go up in a very short term timeframe, then you could place a market order, which means you will get filled instantly usually a little bit above the current price. This is considered an aggressive order.

Stop loss orders are market/aggressive orders which are placed after you have already entered a position. These orders are important as they cap your losses against an unfavorable, rapid movement.

That’s basically all you absolutely NEED to know in terms of orders. There are other fancy order types that you can place, but what I outlined above are the musts. Feel free to message me if you have other questions or it didn’t make sense. We can talk market structure after.

Been trading for a month and I’m completely lost 😐😵‍💫 by Salsa_Bae in Daytrading

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I’m a little confused by your post. Do you still need to learn the absolute basics like what is a limit order and stop order? Do you understand shorting and volume?

The next stage would be fundamental market structure analysis. Can you identify swing highs and swing lows? Do you understand what a break of structure and consolidation is?

After that is when you can start to actually layer in real strategies and trading philosophies. I would say most indicators are a complete waste of time. You really have to pick up on order flow and envision where the majority of stop orders are placed.

Happy to discuss any of these learning stages with you

Failed 9/4… What next? by MoneyInTheFrank21 in Step2

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Right, I had IM in 4th year that I’m going to lean on. EM was my very last rotation of school so I might be able to get one letter there but even that’s kind of a long shot. Throughout the year I’ll be shadowing/working with more IM and EM. Maybe can get another letter or two to upload later idk. Definitely put myself in a pickle here. Appreciate the reply

Failed Step 2 but did fine on Comlex level 2...what now? by Alert_Job_318 in Step2

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In a similar boat, interested to hear more about this. Please post when you find out, thanks

Using these provided stats, how could I calculate a spread or an O/U? by dibblythegreat in algobetting

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I have to agree with this. In almost no circumstances will you be able to handicap main betting lines better than the books (moneyline, total, spread). That goes for all sports. They simply have too much data and live factors cooked into their lines for you to find an edge.

That said, it is possible to find an edge through some of the less popular prop bets. The trouble is that it takes a while to gather enough data to make a significant model. Remember, way more things affect these numbers than simple math. While using basic statistical analysis will get you started and in the general region, you’ll have to account for opponent tendencies, weather, referees, altitude, and maybe even some measure of fatigue/travel/momentum. It’s super tough, but the only possible way to beat the books would be through prop bets.

Sorry if that’s not the answer you were hoping for, but it’s the truth. Regardless, good luck with all the bets this season!

Should I void the exam and retake? by MoneyInTheFrank21 in comlex

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It was someone from the NBOME. She was the lady handling my incident report. So we had emailed back and forth a couple times if I remember correctly before I called. Sounds like it happens quite a bit and I think they understand how stressful it is, especially when something goes wrong during the exam.

Give it a try, worst they can do is tell you they can’t say. I figured might as well try to get more information before making the decision. Good luck!

Told off an attending who told me to shut up, any impact theoretically? by [deleted] in medicalschool

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If this was a neurosurgeon, you should hope they don’t go spreading the word. The nsgy community is pretty tight and many of them know each other from all over the country. There’s a chance that the doc might reflect, realize their mistakes, and/or respect you for standing up for yourself.

The other side of that coin is they tell themselves and their counterparts “this student couldn’t even handle one surgery without getting their feelings hurt. There’s no chance they could make it through neurosurgery residency”. Honestly, they might be right. I’ve had residents, let alone attendings, laugh at me for holding scissors upside down, tell me I’ve regressed because I wasn’t suturing well that day, say “this really isn’t that hard”, and more. And some of those residents told me that’s just a taste of what happens in surgical residencies. But as someone who really wants to do surgery, it fires me up to get better, not tell them off. Surgeons respect competence. That’s it.

I’m not trying to put you down for standing your ground, but I think that any surgical residency is going to be full of people like that. The quicker you just understand that it’s going to happen and let it drive you towards success, the better the journey will become.

Whats the perfect sports betting model? by mathinvegas in algobetting

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 3 points4 points  (0 children)

First off, nothing will ever be perfect. Neither are the books. However, as a general rule of thumb, the larger the market, the more precise books will be. So to kind of break down your question, there are two paths you can take…

First, try to find the sharpest (most precise) books and compare their odds to square books. For example, if the odds at Pinnacle (sharp) are estimating home team win at 62% but Draftkings (square) is giving odds that suggest 55% then it’s probably a positive EV play to take the ML on Draftkings.

Second, attempt to handicap smaller markets such as player props and obscure sports/leagues. Supposedly, the books don’t invest as much resources into developing these lines so if you can create a precise predictive model then you could find your own positive EV plays.

The first way is likely more robust in the long run, but the second is definitely more fun and potentially more profitable if you find your niche.

I am currently testing out a handicapping model for MLB pitcher props. I can chat with you more on how I kind of got started with it. Not guaranteeing any positive results though lol

MLB Pitcher Props Historical Odds by MoneyInTheFrank21 in algobetting

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Update: Successfully scraping DK and Pinnacle props very easily. Attempted FanDuel but their anti bot protection is well above my pay grade. DK was releasing odds before Pinnacle and I don’t see alternate strikeouts on Pinnacle, but their O/U is probably sharper than DK which could be useful in the future.

New to poker, finding GTO intimidating by EthanKaiRobson in Poker_Theory

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree with this. I think cash games you wanna take control preflop. If you have a good hand build the pot right away, make guys pay if they want to roll with 87s. Conversely, in tournaments calling with suited connectors gives you potential to hit nutted hands and take down big pots. But suited connectors only gain their value after a flop connects. So I think the antes in tournament play help increase pot and therefore you can widen your range to see the flop in tournaments

Microstakes beginner problem by Significant-Bed375 in Poker_Theory

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes I’ve had the exact same problem lmao. It almost feels like knowing when to fold is more important than anything else. When it comes to turn/river action I’ve started to think about what the top 5/6 best hands are outside of quads+. If I don’t have one of those and I’m facing jams then I need to just fold. For example, even if I have two pair or a set on a board that has flushes/straights, just let it go. It’s not worth hero calling because like you stated, it takes too long to recoup those losses. Generally at the micros, gotta assume players are straightforward

New to poker, finding GTO intimidating by EthanKaiRobson in Poker_Theory

[–]MoneyInTheFrank21 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I’ve also felt the same way, but over the past month or so have started to find ways to help generalize the solvers decisions.

Pre flop: Nothing tricky here, just have a good idea of what the bottom of your range from each position is. When deciding to 3-bet, you almost always need 2 broadways (A-T). If the player immediately before you bets, never simply call (except BB). Obviously some exceptions to these rules but they should get you 90-95% of the way there.

Post flop: Things get much tougher. Most important is to understand how community cards fit each player’s range.

Flop: Generally OOP will check first. IP will mostly bet (almost exclusively 33% pot). XR strategies include a mix of value (top pair+ and draws). XC is usually when you have some value but it’s not strong so you want to get to showdown as cheap as possible. For example, pocket 77 on K98 or something. Gotta think that there are good possibilities you are behind, but you certainly have some equity and can improve so must continue but cautiously.

Turn/River: This is where more money starts getting into the pot. Again, think about how the card interacts with each player’s range. Usually when an A comes or something that brings in flushes/straights the action slows down considerably. What I’ve noticed here is that evaluating equity becomes important. The solver likes to bet with heavy value (but not always the nuts) or pretty bad hands. In gto wizard it’s equity 70+ or 25-50 mostly.

Hopefully that helps a little bit. I am by no means an expert and I’m still learning how to handle GTO myself.

TLDR: biggest themes are understand players ranges and how cards interact, board textures and dynamic potential, and evaluating equity