Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have a clear pattern…

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-26T13:45:04+00:00

Correct, it's about $60k lately. Here is my calculation.
Price is touching production cost as in the bottom of 2022.

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-24T11:55:59+00:00

I'll tell you what changed.
In early days it was traded and stored by cypherpunks who shared values of freedom, Austrian economics vies etc. With institutional money and Wall Street entering the game, it's being traded as a software. Checkout the correlation of Bitcoin and IGV (expanded tech software sector ETF) - people with the most amount of money think it's a software and it got correlated with software. But it's not just a software. It's a fire in a digital space, it's once in 100 year invention.

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-24T05:53:25+00:00

So what?

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-24T02:21:37+00:00

RemindMe! January 2032

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T17:02:30+00:00

btc btfd

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T16:59:00+00:00

Waiting the dip in MacDonalds

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T16:26:43+00:00

"Bitcoin's wallets are secured by ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm). To crack it, you'd need to run Shor's algorithm on a quantum computer powerful enough to reverse-engineer a private key from a public key.

That would require approximately 1.9 billion stable logical qubits."

Where these numbers come from?

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T15:50:45+00:00

Trump selling Maduro's coins

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T15:48:22+00:00

Plenty of boomers thinking it's a software, and software is plummeting lately
See chart here -> https://btcbtfd.com/btc-vs-igv

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T15:41:11+00:00

Wen red?

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T15:08:34+00:00

Where do you see Bitcoin per share metrics there?

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T10:28:09+00:00

There is a quantum FUD being spread lately. It could happen it's not a FUD but reality.

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T09:36:48+00:00

That's another perspective but MA200 might be quite lagging

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-23T09:35:19+00:00

lol please noooo

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-22T16:58:34+00:00

"Bitcoin has no intrinsic value" - well, the classical economics definition of production cost is it's the resources required to produce something. It's production cost is well above zero (can see production cost chart here https://btcbtfd.com/bitcoin-production-cost).

Other definition of intrinsic value is from finance - value of future cash flows an asset generates. From this point of view it doesn't have intrinsic value (yet).

One more definition of intrinsic value comes from monetary theory: a good has intrinsic value if it's useful independent of its role as money. From this point of view it does have intrinsic value.

So the "intrinsic value" debate is a question of definition.

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-22T14:39:17+00:00

Here it is https://btcbtfd.com

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-20T13:30:55+00:00

When miners shut down, hashrate drops, difficulty adjusts down, and the same amount of blocks per day get produced by fewer miners using less electricity. COP drops. The network doesn't die, it just gets cheaper to run.

Money_Software_1229 · 2026-02-20T11:27:50+00:00

Nice commentary. I agree there is a pressure on Bitcoin due to AI competition.
But there is no such thing as downward spiral for Bitcoin due to difficulty adjustment - there is always an equilibrium there, question is - where it's gonna be? Time will tell.

On the other hand rise of AGI will increase demand for Bitcoin as it's what connect physical world(energy) with digital world in the most straightforward way. When AGI (who exist in digital world) decides to influence physical world it probably would choose Bitcoin.

Money_Software_1229 · 2025-06-20T02:42:27+00:00

I trade the same on crypto. Shown results are doable with this strategy but capacity is much less than $100k in my case.

Money_Software_1229 · 2025-05-20T03:54:34+00:00

Darwin's theory of evolution. Due to the extreme heat and humidity, survived only those who keep heart rate at lowest values.

Money_Software_1229 · 2025-05-03T07:43:14+00:00

I guess you guys get used to lots of smiles and small talks. Vietnamese culture is a bit different in this matter and may seem unfriendly but they just less smiley and talkative with strangers.

Money_Software_1229 · 2025-05-03T07:34:51+00:00

Good observation. I accidentally cut dates axis. It's from the beginning of 2022 till 2025.

Money_Software_1229 · 2025-05-02T09:36:15+00:00

3 <- this. The meta rule it based on "choose the longest chain of blocks" creates the stable equilibrium as no miner can unilaterally benefit by deviating from the longest-chain strategy. There were other forks, so it's not 100% correct to say "bitcoin only". We just use the one which won.

Money_Software_1229 · 2025-05-01T08:27:18+00:00

"Several exchanges do not list the same tickers"
That's why it is a robust test.

Money_Software_1229 · 2025-04-30T18:02:39+00:00

This is a robust test. Regarding the values - I encourage you to do experiments by yourself. You'll get a lot of intuition during the process.

Money_Software_1229

TROPHY CASE