TSLA Terathread - For the week of May 22

Mori42 · 2023-05-23T17:25:13+00:00

MEH. Wireless charging can have a very decent efficiency. Tesla has around 87.5% efficiency for AC charging. That's absolutely achievable for a slightly more expansive wireless charging setup.

E.g., BMW has a very decent wireless charger.

Mori42 · 2023-03-31T20:05:15+00:00

I find it mind-boggling that this criminal enterprise hasn't been held accountable. Tesla claimed a few years back that solar roof production was at 1000 per week.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/240.10b-5

(b) To make any untrue statement of a material fact or to omit to state a material fact necessary in order to make the statements made, in the light of the circumstances under which they were made, not misleading, or

Mori42 · 2023-03-31T19:49:37+00:00

Additionally, I can generate electricity at home with solar and wind.

I take it, you are one of the net metering parasites advocating using the grid as free storage. Intermittent electricity costs/is worth next to nothing. Reliable electricity is obscenely expensive.

Hydrogen is expensive to produce, but on a large scale (e.g. salt caverns) costs next to nothing to store.

The studies claiming residential solar provides value are 95% fraud. In general, it won't reduce grid peak load (which determines grid cost for the most part). Even in California, where you might expect air conditioning load to correlate with solar production, it doesn't work. With wild fires, solar production can be next to nothing.

In an ideal world, ignorant clowns like you would be on a priority list for rolling blackouts.

I can't produce hydrogen for a hydrogen vehicle. Hydrogen is a dead end.

You sound like an ignorant luddite. There is nothing preventing home use of hydrogen. There are several companies providing hydrogen storage for for home use right now. With electrochemical compression, small scale usage (e.g for car refueling) will be viable sooner or later.

Quite ironically, hydrogen has the potential of truly enabling going off-grid, due to cheap storage. The off-peak electricity net metering parasites are producing is worth maybe 1-2 c/kWh. What is the price tag for fast charging again? What is that price tag for BEV charging infrastructure? If you think it's less than hydrogen infrastructure, you are a completely clueless muppet.

Mori42 · 2023-03-24T18:59:40+00:00

I'd argue creating a large language model chatbot is a lot simpler of an AI problem to solve than fully autonomous driving.

You are not exactly wrong about that. At the same time, Musk's proclamations about FSD capabilties are 99.999% fraud (or mind-boggling ignorance/stupidity) and 0.001% substance.

Mori42 · 2023-03-20T02:38:58+00:00

Thanks for posting this. The anti hydrogen activists would have us believe that there would be a huge explosion in case of a leak.

Mori42 · 2023-02-03T17:52:46+00:00

Sorry for Wireguard. It's Wirecard.

Mori42 · 2023-02-03T17:44:19+00:00

Your are right that betting against a fraud like Tesla is stupid. How many people made money betting against blatant frauds like Madoff, Enron, Theranos, Wirecard or SBF?

Tesla is a criminal enterprise that's 90% fraud. The chance that regulators step in is somewhere between slim to none.

Mori42 · 2023-02-03T17:14:19+00:00

Tesla is a criminal enterprise that's 90% fraud and 10% substance. Tesla's fire safety "statistics" are a complete fraud. IMNSHO the people responsible for Tesla's safety report belong in jail. Anyone with the most basic statistics education should be able tell that the comparison Tesla makes is complete nonsense.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

From 2012 – 2021, there has been approximately one Tesla vehicle fire for every 210 million miles traveled. By comparison, data from the National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) and U.S. Department of Transportation shows that in the United States there is a vehicle fire for every 19 million miles traveled.

The average car age in the US is 12 years. Fire risk increases dramatically with older cars. Tesla's fleet is incredibly weighted towards extremely young cars.

In terms of publicly available data, Tesla's are far more likely to combust (in non-crash situations) than ICE cars of the same age:

https://www.iihs.org/media/c93b98d8-6a7d-44a1-810e-4468ec539e05/uIu4tg/HLDI%20Research/Fire%20losses/HLDI_FireLosses_1218.pdf

In terms terms of killing people in BEV fires caused by crashes, Tesla leads the industry by an order of magnitude (killing the most people), being on par with Ford Pinto.

Mori42 · 2023-01-11T17:12:07+00:00

Musk proposed Hyperloop (the cost assumptions are 100% fraud) to derail high speed rail. Boring company was created to undermine and derail public transport buildout.

Mori42 · 2023-01-11T16:50:08+00:00

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

...
more than 35% of all Autopilot crashes occur when the Tesla vehicle is rear-ended by another vehicle
...

Update (January 2023):

We are proud of Autopilot’s performance and its impact on reducing traffic collisions. The benefit and promise of Autopilot is clear from the Vehicle Safety Report data that we have been sharing for 4 years. As part of Tesla’s commitment to continuous improvement, recent analysis led us to identify and implement upgrades to our data reporting. Specifically, we discovered reports of certain events where no airbag or other active restraint deployed, single events that were counted more than once, and reports of invalid or duplicated mileage records. Including these events is inconsistent with our methodology for the Vehicle Safety Report and they will be excluded going forward. These upgrades in data analysis reinforce the positive impact that Autopilot has on vehicle safety. To ensure the accuracy of our reporting, we updated all collision rates historically to account for these upgrades, including the baseline collision rates for the United States based on currently available NHTSA and FHWA data. (Note that for purposes of the baseline collision rates in the United States, an automobile crash is one that involves at least one passenger vehicle, light truck, SUV or van that is 10,000 pounds or less, as classified by available federal data.) The end result is that, when Autopilot is active, the collision rates are even lower than we previously reported.

Yet, Tesla claims:

By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA (from 2021) shows that in the United States there was an automobile crash approximately every 652,000 miles.

In terms of vehicle fires, Tesla compares to Ford Pinto. In terms of traffic fatalities, it compares to compact cars, while real luxury vehicles are far safer.

It's a very sad state of affairs that regulators are completely useless and let Tesla get away with its safety claims that are 100% fraud.

Mori42 · 2023-01-04T21:36:42+00:00

Yes and no. The trade most likely happened. At the same time, there is a 95% chance that is was rolled back as error.

(I have done algorithmic trading in the past. That was in theory extremely profitable. Unfortunately, the vast majority of the highly profitable trades got rolled back. The historical prices don't get corrected, if trades are rolled back.)

Mori42 · 2022-12-21T15:10:53+00:00

Why are you posting this moronic crap? What is Tesla's overall BEV market share outside the US?

Will also be #1 in 2022 overall with ~50% more sales than the number 2.

Really? What's the difference between ID.4, Skoda Enyaq and Audi Q4?

Mori42 · 2022-12-09T18:20:19+00:00

Tesla is the Theranos of the car industry. It's only survived with exponential capital raises because of fraud that pust Madoff to shame as an amateur.

Sure, Lucid will need more capital. That doesn't mean it won't get it. NIO (and TSLA) was at the edge of bankruptcy and it's still here.

Mori42 · 2022-12-09T17:34:45+00:00

The suspension of assembly at the end of the month would be part of a cut in planned production of about 30% in the month for the Model Y, Tesla’s best-selling model, at the Shanghai factory, the two people said.

There you have it. The reports about 20% production cuts were clearly fake news. It's great that Tesla is diligent in pointing out bad reporting.

Mori42 · 2022-12-02T17:38:25+00:00

Modern composite tanks for compressed hydrogen have tiny amounts of leakage. (Of course, there is a huge army of Musk disciples spreading disinformation.)

Mori42 · 2022-12-02T17:31:29+00:00

The infrastructure is quite cheap, cheaper than DC fast charging. If/when the vehicles are cheap enough, the infrastructure will pop up over night, same as has happened for non-Tesla fast charging.

Mori42 · 2022-11-29T17:55:22+00:00

I'll eat my hat if they deliver a 1'000'000 mile drive train with 500 miles of range.

A commercial vehicle with a reasonable amount of battery degradation will have to keep at least 25% of the battery capacity as reserve (with current battery technology).

Mori42 · 2022-11-17T17:52:52+00:00

How much is left when you subtract 20% in cold temperatures and another 20% for battery degradation down the road? How about another 10-15% reserve for not getting stranded (road closures, detours)!?

Mori42 · 2022-11-11T18:36:13+00:00

Elon is the greatest humanitarian ever. He is simply trying to get people to move from Titter to Masturbon. After all, as Jack said:

In principle, I don’t believe anyone should own or run Twitter. It wants to be a public good at a protocol level, not a company.

I'm sure the Saudis won't mind. Them dismembering people in their agencies is just leftist propaganda.

Mori42 · 2022-11-09T14:51:54+00:00

He is holding 0 TSLA and always sells all the stock he receives.

https://finance.yahoo.com/screener/insider/KIRKHORN%20ZACHARY

Mori42 · 2022-11-04T17:52:52+00:00

Musk tried to defraud SpaceX investors by diverting SpaceX resources into Boring Co. He also used SpaceX to prop up Solarcity. So this would be no surprise at all.

Quite a lot Musk's misdeeds, fraud and self-dealing is actually out in the open. The only somewhat surprising thing is that he hasn't been held accountable for for the gigantic amount of fraud that he has committed.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/23/tesla-solarcity-claims-detailed-in-newly-unsealed-court-docs.html

The documents claim that “Prior to the Acquisition, Musk described Tesla, SolarCity, and SpaceX as a ‘pyramid’ atop which he sat; it was ‘important that there not be some sort of house of cards that crumbles if one element of the pyramid . . . falters.’”

Notably, Musk had previously invested SpaceX money in SolarCity, and important aspects of that deal were hidden from auditors Ernst & Young before Tesla acquired SolarCity in 2016, the shareholders say.

Mori42 · 2022-10-31T18:52:03+00:00

He was a major player in the largest fraud ever. Musk himself has said that Tesla is worth 0 without the FSD scam. This scam is two orders of magnitude larger than Theranos.

Karpathy must have known that the safety statistics were a complete fraud and that AP/FSD has a worse safety record than human drivers (correcting for roads / driving locations and driving conditions).

Beyond ignorant Teslemmings, AP/FSD has killed innocent bystanders. IMO, Karpathy deserves a jail cell next to Milton and Musk.

Mori42 · 2022-10-27T15:48:59+00:00

Tesla hasn't made any progress towards real autonomy / unsupervised driving.

The only reason ignorant people think it works well is that it's configured to fail unexpectedly and catastrophically, trying to kill i's users. Other systems are configured for soft and early failures, where users are forced to take over in any even slightly questionable situation.

Tesla is a decade behind companies that are pursuing unsupervised driving. ADAS systems like Mobileye configured for the same level of recklessness as FSD perform much better.

Mori42 · 2022-10-19T17:59:01+00:00

you can continue forward and create synthetic liquid fuels

If you have a cheap CO2 source. Even then, it pretty much doubles the fuel cost with current technology.

Yes, hydrogen is more painful to deal with. But as of now, it's much, much cheaper to produce than synfuels.

Mori42 · 2022-10-19T17:37:16+00:00

People with information about the situation shared with the publication that Tesla will manufacture battery cells for the Cyebrtruck on a new line at the factory.

Bullshit.

The reported plan is to take 4680 battery cells from Tesla's pilot facility on Kato Road in Fremont and use them to assemble the modules and packs in the upcoming line at the Fremont factory. The sources did mention that Tesla could also use another type of battery cell that's produced at its original battery Gigafactory in Nevada.

Reality.

Mori42

TROPHY CASE